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Posted by on in General

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, January 28

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California Cup Oaks - Race #5 at Santa Anita – Post Time 4:50 PM ET, 1:50 PT

The California Cup Oaks and the two races that follow offer some excellent betting action, both within the races and in the pick 3.

The favorite is Sircat Sally (9 to 5 morning line odds), who has earned both her wins leading from start to finish, the most recent at this mile trip but on dirt. Not only does the handicapping adage "Don't bet a horse at low odds trying something for the first time" apply here, but there are at least two horses stretching out from sprints who can easily deny the favorite the early lead she wants, particularly from the nine post. All that early heat sets up a trio of stalkers and closers nicely, starting with Bella Luma, who already has positive experience on turf, having rallied for second in the second start of her career, first on turf, at this mile trip. She won her next start, on an all-weather surface, by nine lengths, before an irrelevant try in the Jimmy Durante Stakes when debris appeared on the course, causing her and many of the others to check and lose all chance. Her most recent race, on dirt, is the one in which Sircat Sally coasted around the track in front and irrelevant, so she can easily bounce back to form good enough to win. 

Mi Pi Romancer ran very well when she tried turf for the first time in November, rallying for second in a field of 10. Next out, she led from start to finish but Prat knows from an outside post he must take her back and save ground today, so she is another that should be running on strongly late as the pacesetters and pressers tire. How About Zero tried turf just once, in the Jimmy Durante, and was also affected by the debris on the track. She finished far behind Sircat Sally last month but she did win a similar stakes for California breds before that from off the pace, showing she has the ability to take back early and come rolling late. 

Bet Bella Luma to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Add a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher. 

Consider a smaller win and place bet on How About Zero at odds of 9 to 2 or higher. 

Play an exacta of Bella Luma, How About Zero and Mi Pi Romancer over ALL.

Pick 3 for Santa Anita Races 5 through 7

Pick 3

Race 5: Bella Luma, How About Zero and Mi Pi Romancer

Race 6: Solid Wager, Well Measured and Jimmy Bouncer

Race 7: He Will, Ashleyluvssugar and Ralis

Cost at $1 is $27


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Posted by on in General

Bobby's Picks - Mahoning Valley

Bobby Fornaro

Race 1

Mizz Freebie - 2:1

Directioner - 6:1

Easter Light - 4:1

Race 2

Tiz Erins Night - 10:1

Ideal Quality - 5:2

Star Gazer - 5:1

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Posted by on in General

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, January 21

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Gulfstream Park – Race #9 – Post Time 4:03 PM

There is excellent value in the Pick 3 from races 9 through 11 as well as the Pick 4 ending in the Sunshine Million's Classic. There may also be some value in this race, a 7 1/2 furlong turf race for first level allowance types. The contenders here are Gentle Kitten, India Mantuana and What's in a Kiss and although they are the three favorites on the morning line it would be difficult to make a case that any of the other six can win. Gentle Kitten fits the condition perfectly off a maiden win last month over the course at the distance. Jose Ortiz was up for the win and rides again and the filly earned the best last race Equibase figure (94) in the field so with improving to do may move right through this first allowance level. India Mantuana finished second to a future stakes star in Bellavais when second in the Ginger Brew stakes on the course at the distance last month. She won two in a row on turf before that so fits on all counts. What's In a Kiss makes her U.S. debut after importing from France and moving into the sizzling hot Brown barn. Castellano gets on and she's been running well against tougher so would be no surprise BUT it must be noted her 2/1 starting odds are low given Browns 2 for 11 record with horses making their U.S. debuts in the past couple of years.

Bet Gentle Kitten to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Of the tickets below, the preferred play is the first pick 3, singling (using only one horse) in race 10, along with the pick 4, which uses three horses in race 10. These two plays combine try to maximize profit. However, there is nothing wrong with the second pick 3 option along with the pick 4 if those amounts are within your budget.

Pick 3

Race 9: Gentle Kitten, India Mantuana, What's In A Kiss

Race 10: My Girl Corey

Race 11: Our Way, Class and Cash, Reporting Star, Go Around, Two Step Time

Cost at $1 is $15

Pick 3 (option 2)

Race 9: Gentle Kitten, India Mantuana, What's In A Kiss 

Race 10: My Girl Corey, True Pleasure, Tybalt's Queen

Race 11: Our Way, Class and Cash, Reporting Star, Go Around, Two Step Time

Cost at $1 is $45

Pick 4:

Race 9: Gentle Kitten, India Mantuana, What's In A Kiss 

Race 10: My Girl Corey, True Pleasure, Tybalt's Queen

Race 11: Our Way, Class and Cash, Reporting Star, Go Around, Two Step Time

Race 12: Tiger of Wales, Piloting, Awesome Slew

Cost at $0.50 is $67.50

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Posted by on in General

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, January 14

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Marshua's River Stakes - Race #6 at Gulfstream Park –Post Time 2:30 PM ET

Oddly enough, Dickinson didn't try turf until her eighth career start last September, but took to the sod like a duck takes to water, winning off by four lengths. Showing that to be no fluke, her next start was as easy of a win, with a career best 106 Equibase figure, just a few points from the 113 figures Isabella Sings earned winning a pair of similar Grade 3 stakes of the 110 figure Sandiva earned winning this race last year. Likely to be sitting off Isabella Sings in the early stages, Dickinson looks very capable of keeping her perfect record on turf intact, at decent odds, as she opens at 9 to 2. Sandiva (3/1 morning line), Isabella Sings (9/5 morning line)and Sea Coast (7/2 morning line) all must be considered contenders for exacta and trifecta tickets but the value for second lies in using Lobelia (20/1 morning line) and Elusive Million (12/1 morning line). Lobelia has run just 9 times on grass and has won five. Her last three races have yielded "A" efforts, the last two over the track and the most recent with Lanerie up and riding back. She'll be coming from last but passing a lot of these late. Elusive Million returned from four months off and made vast improving off her U.S. debut last month when second, Leparoux riding for the first time and back today. She's another likely to be in the middle of the track late and moving well.

Bet Dickinson to win at odds of 9 to 5 of more, a KEY BET on the day.

Play an exacta of Dickinson over Lobelia, Sandiva, Elusive Million, Sea Coast and Isabella Sings

Play a trifecta consisting of Dickinson over Lobelia and Elusive Million over Lobelia, Sandiva, Elusive Million, Sea Coast and Isabella Sings. (Cost is $4 at the $0.50 level)

Play a trifecta consisting of Dickinson over Lobelia, Sandiva, Elusive Million, Sea Coast and Isabella Sings over Lobelia and Elusive Million. (Cost is $4 at the $0.50 level)

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, January 7

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Ginger Brew Stakes - Race #9 at Gulfstream Park –Post Time 4:03 PM ET

In a wide open 12 horse field of three year old fillies going two turns on turf, there are TWO horses that are key to making a profit in my opinion. The first is Bellavais, who opens at 10/1, ridiculously high starting odds based on a more than decent (25% or so) probability to win. She has run three times and all three were solid efforts. The reason she opens at 10/1 is most likely she inherited her maiden win in her most recent start (11/9/16) via a disqualification. She's improved in every race, gets John Velazquez for the first time and has been working very well at Palm Meadows for her three year old debut. The other main contender is Party Boat, a stakes winner. She's won three races in a row, the first two her only two turf tries then the Wait a While Stakes (scheduled for turf but run on a sloppy main track) last month. Rosario rode her for the 1st time that day and rides back and she's another filly with a bright future and on a pattern for continued improvement. 

Bet Bellavais to win and place at odds of 5 to 2. 

Bet Party Boat to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more

Play an exacta of Bellavais over ALL and play the reverse exacta as well, which is ALL over Bellavais

Play an exacta consisting Party Boat over ALL

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