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Betting with Ellis Starr - August 12, 2017

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, August 12

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Adirondack Stakes - Race #4 at Saratoga – Post Time 2:44 PM ET

This is a KEY BETS blog, and even at low odds Sly Roxy is a KEY BET in this year's Adirondack Stakes. She showed a lot of maturity in her debut 16 days ago here at Saratoga when sitting a length off the pace from the start then moving forward with authority on the turn to draw off by three lengths early in the stretch before easily winning by five lengths. She's bound to improve off the experience of a race and the 87 Equibase figure earned is the second best in the field to Pure Silver, who earned her 90 figure in a statebred stakes and when leading from start to finish, that kind of effort being repeated here perhaps a bit more problematic today from the rail and with other "early" pace types in the field. With Castellano riding back, Sly Roxy should be very tough to beat. Pure Silver could easily hang on for second or third after setting the early pace, as could another horse that led from start to finish in her only start, Limited View.

Bet Sly Roxy to win at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.

Play a trifecta consisting of Sly Roxy over Pure Silver & Limited View over ALL. Play another trifecta consisting of Sly Roxy over ALL over Pure Silver & Limited View.


Monmouth Oaks - Race #10 at Monmouth – Post Time 5:20 PM ET

Proud and Fearless could have been purchased for $50,000 as she was entered in a maiden claimer in her debut last December, and again in March when dropped back into a maiden claiming race. However, following that win in March around two turns, the filly has been nearly perfect, winning two other races then leading late and beaten just a half-length on the wire in the Delaware Oaks last month. With 109 and 107 Equibase figure efforts in her last two efforts and with great tactical speed that will allow her to be in front or just off the pace from the start, it should be very tough to beat her in this situation. Next best in terms of probability to win is Overture, winner of the Indiana Oaks in her most recent start in wire-to-wire fashion but having come from off the pace previously so not necessarily a need-the-lead type. "Jersey Joe" Bravo takes the call and considering how well he rides at Monmouth we can expect a top effort but she would need to improve greatly off her career best 97 last race figure to beat Proud and Fearless.

Bet Proud and Fearless to win at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Proud and Fearless over ALL.

Play an additional exacta of Proud and Fearless and Overture over ALL.


Fourstardave Handicap- Race #10 at Saratoga – Post Time 6:28 PM ET

Sassy Little Lila should not be anywhere near the 6/1 odds she opens at but I'll take an odds above 2/1 on this front running filly with three wins and four runner-up efforts in eight career starts, including two in grade 1 stakes on turf. When last seen on Belmont Stakes day, Sassy Little Lila was beaten by a special filly in Antonoe but held second gamely over Grade 1 stakes winner Dickinson with a career best 111 Equibase figure. No one will challenge this filly early for fear of hurting their own chances, and it doesn't matter anyway because Sassy Little Lila is unusual for an "early" speed type in that she can finish, having run the last quarter mile in the Gamely Stakes in June in a swift 22.5 second. She gets a weight break facing colts, which is no problem on turf, and Saez has been aboard for all but one of her seven first or second place finishes and rides her well. With three workouts on the Saratoga turf as she points for this race, they will have to catch Sassy Little Lila to win. American Patriot posted the 10 to 1 upset in the Grade 1 Maker's 46 Mile in April, gamely edging out four other horses in a blanket vanish. Sent to Ascot for the Queen Anne Stakes in June, she didn’t fare as well, but back in the U.S. and back on Lasix and with the 115 figure effort from the Maker's 46 Mile to run back to, he cannot be ignored, also opening at 6/1. Ballagh Rocks (winner of the Poker Stakes when last seen with a 112 figure and a half-length behind American Patriot in the Maker's 46 Mile), Time Test (Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes runner-up), Disco Partner (Jaipur Stakes winner in June) and World Approval (Dixie Stakes winner in May) all must be included on exacta tickets played.

Bet Sassy Little Lila and American Patriot to win at 2 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Sassy Little Lila over ALL and then reverse the exacta and play ALL over Sassy Little Lila.


Best Pal Stakes - Race #9 at Del Mar – Post Time 9:03 PM ET (6:03 PT)

We should use #1 Run Away and #5 Serengeti on any pick 3 or 4 tickets played but for the most part, particularly for win bets, I am shying away from these two as they will be overbet off fast wins and as I feel there is good profit opportunity on others. Fleetwood finished 2nd in his only start yet is placed in this grade 2 stakes even as a maiden, and during the summer when I see any horse with ability yet not totally proven trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent I will take notice as this is where the sharp trainer thrives, having saddled talented horses like Swipe and Exaggerator for these owners the past couple of years. Likely to improve by leaps and bounds in his 2nd career start, Fleetwood could pull off the upset. Dia de Pago broke his maiden in June in Florida with a mature off the pace rally from 4th and since shipping into California has worked well, particularly a very good 4th of 69 five furlong drill over the track one week ago. The dam of his colt has had two other foals run, with a combined record of 16 for 68 including a stakes win as a 2 year old, so I would consider this one as a strong win bet as well as he is likely to be ignored by the betting public. Arawak won powerfully by 7 in his career debut in May then went to England and tried turf in the G2 Coventry Stakes, without Lasix, finishing 12th of 18. Returned to trainer Ward's base at Keeneland, the colt put in a very strong workout 8/1 in preparation for the race and if he fires fresh as he did in May he could win this stakes.

Bet FleetwoodDia de Pago and Arawak to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Consider a place bet on any of them at 10/1 odds or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of FleetwoodDia de PagoArawak and Run Away.

Play a second exacta box consisting of FleetwoodDia de PagoArawak and Serengeti.

(This way we are not playing the exacta combination with the least value, the one between Run Away and Serengeti).

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