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Betting with Ellis Starr - August 13, 2016

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, August 13

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Adirondack Stakes - Race #9 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 5:54 PM ET

Silvertoni was most impressive winning her career debut in April at Keeneland before a big effort versus males when second in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes one month later. Trying turf for the first time (a soggy turf course at that) in the Coventry Stakes at Ascot in England in June, she didn't run a lick. Additionally, in the Coventry Stakes she didn't run on Lasix as she had in her first two starts. Lasix goes back on today as she moves back to dirt and the second best of 87 half-mile workout at Saratoga coming into the race signals she's in tip-top shape. As such, expect Silvertoni to get the lead as the gate opens and never look back.

Bet Silvertoni to win at odds of2 to 1 or more.

Play a Daily Double using Silvertoni in race 9 and with Reporting Star, Blacktype, Grand Arch, Tourist and Ring Weekend in race 10. 


Arlington Million - Race #9 at Arlington Park – Approximate Post Time 6:09 PM ET (5:09 Central Time)

Editor's Note: While we are unable to showcase Arlington Park, we still wanted to include this for your handicapping needs. We are working on getting Arlington Park, as well as other tracks we currently are unable to offer.

While I might usually tilt towards former European runners in this classy race, I have concerns about some of them and instead am going to go for a longshot as my top choice. Greengrassofyoming has won two races in a row, most importantly the Stars and Stripes Stakes last month. Run over the same course as the Million, the Stars and Stripes was the same race used by 2015 winner The Pizza Man as a springboard to victory in this race. Greengrassofyoming earned a career best 113 Equibase figure in the Stars and Stripes, run at a mile and one-half, so cutting back to a mile and one-quarter may be just what he needs to win his second race over the course in a row under jockey Shaun Bridgmohan, who rode the horse for the first time last month. The Pizza Man is a horse I have nearly always taken a stand against in big races, mostly because he is nearly always favored and there's no value in wagering on him. However, in the Million, his starting odds are 10/1 as it appears he is not in the same form he was entering last year's race off a win in the Stars and Stripes. I believe he actually is in that kind of form, as he was beaten by inches for the win when fourth last month, earning the same 113 figure as the winner. Last year The Pizza Man earned a 115 figure before winning this race, and so there is little difference in his form, other than the fact he hasn't finished better than fourth in any of his three races this year. Looking at it another way, The Pizza Man finished fifth with a 100 figure effort in his 2016 debut, improved to a 106 figure in his next start before the 113 effort last time out, so is on a pattern to improve. Jockey Mike Smith has ridden The Pizza Man just once previously, to victory in the Hollywood Turf Cup last fall (119 figure) and takes off an entire day of riding at Del Mar for this opportunity. With 10 of his 16 career wins having come on the Arlington Park turf, The Pizza Man deserves a lot of consideration as a contender. Danish Dynaformer is another cutting back from 12 to 10 furlongs, coming off a career best effort with a 113 figure in the Singspiel Stakes last month. The runner-up in the Singspiel was none other than 2014 Million winner Hardest Core, so by comparing competition it appears Danish Dynaformer fits with these. As a four year old, Danish Dynaformer may not have run his best race, and jockey Patrick Husbands rides him right back, more reasons to suspect another top effort.

Others to consider include Pumpkin Rumble and World Approval, whomust at least get an honorable mention, Pumpkin Rumble was just two noses behind Greengrassofyoming in the Stars and Stripes, finishing a nose in front of The Pizza Man. He, too, earned a career best figure (113) in the race and is familiar with the course. Additionally, he is cutting back a quarter mile in distance so, at the minimum, should be considered as a part of any exacta, trifecta or other exotic wagers we make in the race. World Approval won the United Nations Stakes last month with a near career best 117 figure and cuts back an eighth of a mile. He has not been worse than third in five races this year and I wouldn't argue with anyone that considered him with a chance to succeed.

In the Arlington Million, we can and we should bet more than one horse to win or win and place.

Bet Greengrassofyoming and Danish Dynaformer to win and place (or win, place and show) at 4 to 1 or more.

Bet The Pizza Man at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Bet Pumpkin Rumble to win and place (or win, place and show) at odds of 7 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Greengrassofyoming, The Pizza Man, Danish Dynaformer, Pumpkin Rumble and World Approval


Fourstardave Handicap - Race #10 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 6:32 PM ET

Grand Arch won the 2015 edition of this race on a firm course at 8/1 then won the Shadwell Turf Mile on a yielding course. He wasn't disgraced a bit when third behind Tepin in the Breeders' Cup Mile, took seven months off, and ran big when third after leading late while in need of a race. Grand Arch regressed when brought back in under a month but now after nearly two months off and back on a course he likes he has every right to win again, particularly with the race very likely to be run on a yielding or soft turf course. Ring Weekend is the other main contender to win, coming off a neck loss in the Dixie Stakes on Preakness weekend (beating Grand Arch for second by a half-length) that followed 14 months on the bench. He won a stakes at Saratoga in 2014 on a soft course and considering he should run much better than when last seen second of a layoff he would be no surprise. Reporting Star, Blacktype and Tourist should be part of the exacta and trifecta.

Bet Grand Arch to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Grand Arch and Ring Weekend over Grand Arch, Ring Weekend, Reporting Star, Blacktype and Tourist.


Del Mar Race #7 – Approximate Post Time 8:10 ET (5:10 Pacific Time)

This is a good betting race in and of itself, and we can make some money playing a daily double from this race to the Best Pal Stakes (race 8) as well.

Superior Status is a Louisiana Bred related to a bunch of winners on the dam's side including two first out winners. His local works appear average for the most part but Mullins may have tipped his hand with a 47 flat four furlong gate workout on 7/30. T. Montana is on the also-eligible list but gets a long look if he gets in, also with a strong half-mile recently and as 4 of his 5 siblings to race all finished 2nd in their debuts. Budokan debuts for Hollendorfer, who rarely works his horses fast but who nearly always has them fit enough to give a good account at first asking. Like the other two contenders, there's a strong half-mile drill in his recent work pattern. Big Gray Rocket will likely be bet as most Baffert first time starters are, this one a typically fast working colt, getting Bejarano to ride. He could be something, or he could be a dud, but I'm not going to leave him off my pick 3 and similar multi-race tickets to find out. Gemstorm, Tybee Island and Antioch are all fast working first timers so can be considered for pick 3 and 4 tickets played.

Consider win bets on Superior Status, T. Montana or Budokan at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Play a Daily Double consisting of Superior Status, T. Montana, Budokan, Big Gray Rocket, Gemstorm, T. Montana and Antioch in race 7 with Drafted, Klimt and Big League in race 8.


Best Pal Stakes - Race #8 at Del Mar – Approximate Post Time 8:40 PM ET (5:40 Pacific Time)

Drafted won with the greatest of ease in his debut this spring at Keeneland then was privately purchased by Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin Stable. He went to England to compete in the Windsor Castle Stakes and was well regarded at 7 to 1 in a field of 22 but finished 17th. Back in the states and back on dirt, anything resembling that debut effort nets him a stakes win. Klimt was also impressive in his only win, last month at Santa Anita, drawing off by 5. Bejarano rides back for Baffert and he's a contender but likely to be overbet. Big League needs to improve off his debut win over the track 2 weeks ago but that's logical and he may be ignored by bettors. He showed a bit of maturity in victory and gets a good outside post so has to be considered a win contender as well.

Bet Drafted to win and place at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Drafted, Klimt and Big League.

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