1

123bet Blog

123bet Blog

  • Home
    Home This is where you can find all the blog posts throughout the site.
  • Categories
    Categories Displays a list of categories from this blog.
  • Tags
    Tags Displays a list of tags that have been used in the blog.
  • Bloggers
    Bloggers Search for your favorite blogger from this site.
  • Team Blogs
    Team Blogs Find your favorite team blogs here.
  • Login
    Login Login form

Betting with Ellis Starr - August 19, 2017

Posted by on in General
  • Font size: Larger Smaller
  • Hits: 3210
  • 0 Comments
  • Subscribe to this entry
  • Print

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, August 19

BettingWithEllisStarr_Blog-Image.png

Lake Placid Stakes - Race #8 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:02 PM ET

This race is playable but better still it's a lead in to a potentially very profitable Alabama Stakes and so some daily double plays are called for to be sure.

Party Boat and Proctor's Ledge just finished 2nd & 1st, respectively, in the Grade 3 Lake George Stakes over the track yet their starting odds of 4/1 and 5/2, respectively, pale to the 8/5 starting odds for La Coronel, not seen in 2 months and last seen 5th of 7 and uncompetitive in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Ascot in June. Granted, La Coronel ran without Lasix which she had for all four of her career wins and the top two finishers both came back to win important races, but she shouldn't be 8/5 in this group as even with her best effort there is no guarantee she will win. Uni was making her U.S. debut in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks in July and her 10th to 3rd finish can be improved upon. As such, we will use four in doubles but if the low odds on La Coronel hold up we will get low odds overlays on both Party Boat and Proctor's Ledge, with their best efforts good enough to win.

Bet Party Boat and/or Proctor's Ledge to win at 2 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta of Party Boat and Proctor's Ledge over Party BoatProctor's LedgeLa Coronel and Uni.

Play a double using Party BoatProctor's LedgeLa Coronel and Uni in this race and It Tiz WellUnchained MelodySalty and Elate in race 9.


Alabama Stakes - Race #9 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:40 PM ET

What a great betting race!!

It Tiz Well just won the Delaware Oaks in her first start in blinkers. It was actually her 2nd but she had horrific traffic issues in the first, the Summertime Oaks, and so we can draw a line through that race. She won the Honeybee Stakes in the spring then finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Oaks before a short rest, and since the Delaware win she returned to Hollendorfer's base in Southern California and has been working up a strorm. Shipping out to New York off a 107 Equibase figure effort, as good as the 109 Unchained Melody earned in the Mother Goose or New Money Honey earned  (on turf) in the Belmont Oaks Invitational, as well as on par with the 105 CCA Oaks runner-up Elate earned, It Tiz Well appears ignored in the wagering opening at 12/1. Elate ran too good to lose in the CCA Oaks, coming up a head short of the wire as Mike Smith (on Abel Tasman) intimidated her (admittedly so) by showing her his whip in front of her nose and crowding her into the rail in the final yards. Getting a much better post for the Alabama, Ortiz can get her to run the race Abel Tasman ran last time out and on a pattern of improving figures she certainly is very playable as well, opening at  6/1. Salty lost all chance at the start of the CCA Oaks when she leapt INTO the side of the gate at the start, but she ran determinedly thereafter to gain third. With a better break she's got a square chance to win based on her runner-up effort in the Acorn prior to that. Unchained Melody is reluctantly used on double tickets but opening at 3/1 I would rather see any of the other three horses win. She won the Mother Goose leading from start to finish but came from behind before that. She  is running two turns for the first time, her only real knock, but coming off a career best 109 figure effort and being this is only the 5th start of her career, she must be respected.

Bet It Tiz Well to win at 2/1 or more and absolutely add a place bet if 5 to 1 or higher.

Make a second win bet on Elate at 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta and trifecta box consisting of It Tiz WellElateSalty and Unchained Melody.


Del Mar Handicap- Race #7 at Del Mar – Post Time 8:13 PM ET, 5:13 PM PT

Liam the Charmer intrigues me a lot, opening at 12/1, considering he missed by less than a length in a blanket finish in the similar Whittingham Stakes I May. Espinoza has been his regular rider for his last six races including two wins and that near defeat at 15/1, and with the colt returning to California off a poor 8th place United Nations finish I think he will be ignored in the betting but could be rallying fast for the upset win. Itsinthepost also ships back to California after a poor U.N. Stakes effort when 5th at 5 to 2 odds after leading late. He won the San Luis Rey Stakes and Elkhorn Stakes in the sprint, both marathons like this, Baze up for both and back today and the short rest since the U.N. may have done him a world of good. Inordinate just won the 1 3/4 mile Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano Stakes so this 1 3/8 mile trip should be no problem. An experiment in blinkers before that can be ignored but he finished fast for 2nd prior to that off a long layoff since last year and has run well in both starts since moving to the Baltas barn so must be respected. Ashleyluvssugar enters this year's Del Mar Handicap on the same pattern as last year when he won by a nose under Gary Stevens, who rides again. He finished 2nd in the Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes on the course at a shorter distance last month and will like the additional half-mile. Speaking of Hunt, I am not using him because I am concerned that win last month, which followed a year without a good effort, is one he is likely to regress from.

Bet Liam The Charmer to win at 3 to 1 or higher and consider a place bet at 7 to 1 or more.

The same holds for Inordinate.

Play an exacta and trifecta box consisting of Liam the CharmerItsinthepostInordinate and Ashleyluvssugar.


Pacific Classic Stakes - Race #8 at Del Mar – Post Time 8:45 PM ET, 5:45 PM PT

This year's Pacific Classic is all about Arrogate and whether he will show up or throw in another clunker. Although I'm not banking on the latter happening twice in a row, even if Arrogate runs his best both Collected and Accelerate can run just as well and beat him.

Collected has won three straight to start his 2017 campaign, all stakes, including a 14 length victory in the Precisionist Stakes with a career best 125 Equibase figure as good as the 124 figures Arrogate earned winning the Pegasus World Cup and Dubai World Cup. Flattered when Accelerate came out of the Precisionist to win the San Diego Handicap and with room to improve again as a lightly raced four year old, Collected also has the benefit of an "early/presser" running style that will allow jockey Martin Garcia to put him on the lead at the start if no other horse wants it, or to put him in a stalking position off the pacesetter. Accelerate will attempt what California Chrome did last year in winning the San Diego Handicap then the Pacific Classic. Winner of the 2016 Los Alamitos Derby last September, Accelerate lost five races in a row, including when third behind Collected in the Precisionist, before taking the lead from the start and showing the way to the finish last month while earning a career best and field high 128 figure, higher than any figure Arrogate has earned to date except in the Dubai World Cup. That was his first race since adding blinkers and getting a jockey change to Victor Espinoza, so we will expect the same tactics in this race.

Sorry Erik may be viewed as a huge longshot with no chance at all but I take a different view, because trainer Keith Desormeaux is a horseman who knows where to place his stock and who has surprised many with his horses seeming to outrun long odds many times in the past. Sorry Erik was claimed (purchased) for a paltry $20,000 in January, immediately winning an allowance race before a fifth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby two starts later. In his next start on dirt, Sorry Erik finished fourth of nine in the Ohio Derbywhich produced three next out winners including himself. His best effort yielded a 103 figure which pales in comparison to the main contender's 125-128 range of figures, but Sorry Erik is just a three year old and as such has the most upside in terms of ability of any horse in this field. Arrogate may have been a bit short of 100% fit in the San Diego Handicap when returning from nearly four months off and a trip half-way across the world following his Dubai World Cup victory (with the equivalent of a 132 figure). Certainly, his workouts going into that race didn't suggest that but his flat effort when fifth and fourth from start to finish certainly did. Arrogate had won seven of eight races prior to that and was most impressive in many of them so there's no doubt how formidable an opponent he can be when he is on his game. Arrogate has come back to work as well coming into the Classic as he did before that previous race but there still is no proof he will be back to the form that might otherwise make him the one to beat. As such, I can't discount his chances to win entirely but I can't totally endorse him either. Personally, I will be betting others to win but using Arrogate on some of my wagers such as in an exacta box with Sorry Erik.

Bet Collected (a low odds overlay win bet) to win at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.

Make a small win, place bet on Sorry Erik at 7 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta consisting of Sorry Erik over CollectedAccelerate and Arrogate and play the reverse of that exacta as well.

0

Comments

  • No comments made yet. Be the first to submit a comment

Leave your comment

Guest
Guest Monday, 17 December 2018
 
 
 
SPEED BET
Next Race Coming Up