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Betting with Ellis Starr - August 27, 2016

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, August 27 – Including the All-Stakes Pick 4


King's Bishop Stakes - Race #8 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 3:35 PM ET

We kicked off last week's Key Races blog with a $26 winner and although not likely offering that kind of value Summer Revolution offers a lot of reward for the risk on win bets, and to start the pick 4, opening at 6/1. Most impressive winning both starts to date, both at this 7 furlong trip, Summer Revolution earned a 112 Equibase Figure here at Saratoga three weeks ago, the 2nd best last race figure in the field and BETTER THAN what Fish Trappe Road (110) earned winning the Dwyer, Mind You Biscuits (100) earned winning the Amsterdam, Tom's Ready (110) earned winning the Woody Stephens or Rated R Superstar (109) earned winning the Carry Back. Considering he's only run twice, Summer Revolution has more improving to do and picks up the services of North American leading jockey Javier Castellano to boot. Fish Trappe Road is working exceptionally well and has run three "A" races in a row, two at this trip, so must be respected. Economic Model (2nd to Fish Trappe Road in the Dwyer) and Noholdingback Bear (8 for 9 first or second in his career) have a high probability to be part of the exacta and trifecta.

Bet Summer Revolution to win at odds of2 to 1 or more. Consider a second, smaller win bet on Fish Trappe Road (who opens at 8 to 1) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta consisting of Summer Revolution over ALL.

Play an exacta box consisting of Summer Revolution, Fish Trappe Road, Economic Model and Noholdingback Bear.

All Stakes Pick 4:

Race 8Summer Revolution, Fish Trappe Road, Economic Model and Noholdingback Bear
Race 9Catalina Red, Chief Lion, Stallwalkin Dude, A. P. Indian and Marking
Race 10Flintshire
Race 11Governor Malibu, Exaggerator, Connect, American Freedom
Cost at $0.50 is $40
A pretty inexpensive ticket with a lot of coverage because we're going to single Flintshire in the Sword Dancer Stakes

Forego Stakes - Race #9 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 4:12 PM ET

Catalina Red moves back to his favorite distance, 7 furlongs, where he's a perfect 3-for-3 to date. He finished third behind A. P. Indian in the Vanderbilt Handicap last month at 6 furlongs over the track but won the Churchill Downs Stakes two before that with a 116 Equibase Speed Figure effort good enough to win here on the Square if repeated. A. P. Indian beat Marking by a head in the Belmont Sprint Stakes at this distance on July 9 then came back to win the Amsterdam at 6 furlongs three weeks later, here at Saratoga. Undefeated this year and with the best last 2 Equibase figures (119 and 117) in the field, his chances of success can't be discounted for a second. Chief Lion might post the upset if able to run back to his wins in May and June shortly after joining the Jacobson barn. He returned to competitive form when second to Stallwalkin Dude over the track in a non-graded stakes last month so could be part of the exacta at a nice price. Stallwalkin Dude is 2 for 2 at Saratoga and nearly posted the upset in last year's Grade 1 Vosburgh so coming off a win has to be respected. On the other hand, he's regressed badly off his last three wins.

Bet Catalina Red to win at 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta consisting of Catalina Red, Chief Lion and Stallwalkin Dude over Catalina Red, Chief Lion, Stallwalkin Dude, A. P. Indian and Marking.

Play the opposite exacta as well, which is Catalina Red, Chief Lion, Stallwalkin Dude, A. P. Indian and Marking over Catalina Red, Chief Lion and Stallwalkin Dude (That way if Catalina Red, Chief Lion and Stallwalkin Dude finish first and second we hit the bet twice).

Race #10 at Saratoga – Sword Dance Stakes – Approximate Post Time 4:49 ET

Race 10 is the Sword Dancer Stakes, won by Flintshire in 2015 and very likely to be won by this phenomenal turf star again in 2016. He's 2-for-2 at Saratoga and isn't giving away any weight even after winning both the Manhattan Handicap and Bowling Green Stakes in the past two months. Any horse that can run the last quarter mile in 22 seconds and change after running a mile and one-quarter, as Flintshire did in this race last year, will be nearly impossible to beat. There's no money to be made betting the race but as stated above when laying out the Pick 4 ticket using Flintshire as a single gives us a lot of coverage in the other races.

Travers Stakes - Race #11 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 5:44 ET

In recent history, only horses that have finished first or second in their most recent race have ended up winning the Travers, and with one exception in the last few years, those horses made their start prior to the Travers in either the Jim Dandy Stakes or Haskell Invitational. The lone exception was 2014 winner V.E. Day, who won the Curlin Stakes prior to his Travers win.

Using those factors, I'll take a shot with Governor Malibu to post the upset. Beaten just a length and a quarter by Laoban in the Jim Dandy, Governor Malibu has recent experience over the track which may prove significant . Governor Malibu earned a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure in the Jim Dandy and should get a great trip behind likely early leader Laoban, who won't be able to go as slowly as he did (49 seconds for the opening half-mile) when posting the upset last month. Likely to get first run on the tiring leader before some of the other horses with a better late kick get into high gear, allowing just enough margin to hang on for the upset win in this year's Travers. Exaggerator also has prior experience at Saratoga, having won the Saratoga Special Stakes last summer in the second start of his career. Since then he’s earned over $3.5 million wining four graded stakes, including the Haskell Invitational in his most recent race with a 108 figure. Some may feel he can only win on a wet track, but not only did Exaggerator win the Saratoga Special on a dry track last year, he also ran one of his best races ever in the Kentucky Derby when finishing second behind Nyquist, so there is no doubt in my mind he will be one of the few in the thick of the action at the finish. Connect is on an identical pattern to 2014 Travers winner V. E. Day. Winner of a maiden race in May in only his second career start (102 figure), Connect then improved to a 103 figure winning an allowance level race in June, before a new career-best 106 figure winning the Curlin Stakes last month over the track at the same distance of both the Haskell and Jim Dandy. Being more lightly raced than most of the rest in the Travers field, Connect has a lot of improving he can do here.

For exotic wagers like the exacta and trifecta, three more horses warrant consideration, particularly for the second and third positions on those tickets. American Freedom earned a strong 106 figure when second in the Haskell and removes blinkers for the Travers, which suggests he will be running behind the pacesetters today. Considering Laoban and some others may set a fast pace and considering that American Freedom earned a 109 figure winning the Iowa Derby before the Haskell, he could be in the mix at the end. My Man Sam finished second at Saratoga (103 figure) in a prep for the Travers last month after not having been seen since an 11th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He finished fast from 13th to second in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in April so has proven competitive at the level and may come in under the radar of many bettors. Laoban won't likely get away with the dawdling pace that allowed him to post the 27-to-1 upset in the Jim Dandy (113 figure), but he has proven tough even when headed as when he held on for second in the Gotham Stakes so he has to be considered as one who can stick around at the finish.

Bet Governor Malibu to win and place at 3 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Governor Malibu and Exaggerator over Governor Malibu, Exaggerator, American Freedom, My Man Sam, Destin, Connect and Laoban.

Consider playing the same ticket as a $0.50 trifecta.

Bonus Race – Race 5 at Del Mar – Approximate Post Time 7 PM ET (4 PM Pacific)

A couple of weeks ago we nailed a first time starter at 15/1. This one's not likely to go off at those odds but with a morning line of 6/1, I'll bite. Anythingcanhappen is a first time starter going long on grass, trained by Hall-of-Fame conditioner Dick Mandella and ridden by Del Mar leading jockey Flavien Prat. This gal is a three year old and her half-sister, Blame It On Alphie (a two year old filly) debuted 15 days ago at a mile on turf for the same connections and won like a good thing. It's rare to win around two turns on turf in California and it's about as rare for this excellent trainer to have his first time starters cranked up to win, especially around two turns. However, as this gal carries the same genes we may expect the same result. C. C. Zipp is the best of those that have run, having led late in her turf debut last month and settling for 2nd to a horse that came right back to win again.

Bet Anythingcanhappen to win and place at 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box between Anythingcanhappen and C. C. Zipp.

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