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Betting with Ellis Starr - January 14, 2017

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, January 14


Marshua's River Stakes - Race #6 at Gulfstream Park –Post Time 2:30 PM ET

Oddly enough, Dickinson didn't try turf until her eighth career start last September, but took to the sod like a duck takes to water, winning off by four lengths. Showing that to be no fluke, her next start was as easy of a win, with a career best 106 Equibase figure, just a few points from the 113 figures Isabella Sings earned winning a pair of similar Grade 3 stakes of the 110 figure Sandiva earned winning this race last year. Likely to be sitting off Isabella Sings in the early stages, Dickinson looks very capable of keeping her perfect record on turf intact, at decent odds, as she opens at 9 to 2. Sandiva (3/1 morning line), Isabella Sings (9/5 morning line)and Sea Coast (7/2 morning line) all must be considered contenders for exacta and trifecta tickets but the value for second lies in using Lobelia (20/1 morning line) and Elusive Million (12/1 morning line). Lobelia has run just 9 times on grass and has won five. Her last three races have yielded "A" efforts, the last two over the track and the most recent with Lanerie up and riding back. She'll be coming from last but passing a lot of these late. Elusive Million returned from four months off and made vast improving off her U.S. debut last month when second, Leparoux riding for the first time and back today. She's another likely to be in the middle of the track late and moving well.

Bet Dickinson to win at odds of 9 to 5 of more, a KEY BET on the day.

Play an exacta of Dickinson over Lobelia, Sandiva, Elusive Million, Sea Coast and Isabella Sings

Play a trifecta consisting of Dickinson over Lobelia and Elusive Million over Lobelia, Sandiva, Elusive Million, Sea Coast and Isabella Sings. (Cost is $4 at the $0.50 level)

Play a trifecta consisting of Dickinson over Lobelia, Sandiva, Elusive Million, Sea Coast and Isabella Sings over Lobelia and Elusive Million. (Cost is $4 at the $0.50 level)

Gulfstream Park – Race #9 – Post Time 4:03 PM

There's some value in the Pick 3 starting in race #9 if you want to take a shot. I am singling (using only one horse in race #11 on this pick 3 but covering with a daily double from race #10 to race #11 which you will see after my race 10 analysis). There are six horses to start off the pick 3 but I have no specific preference among them for any other wagers. However, note that two of the six horses in race #9 are also-eligibles so the cost of the ticket could be less than indicated. 

Race 9: Spellker, Raging Town, Oh So Terrible, Twotimingdancer, Love and Lemons, Sylphide

Race 10: Heart to Heart, Night Prowler, Rose Brier, Lukes Alley, Jay Gatsby, Macagone

Race 11: Dolphus, Macagone, Lukes Alley, Jay Gatsby, Night Prowler, Rose Brier and Heart to Heart

Cost at $1 is $36

Optionally, add #2 Tommy Macho in race #11 for a cost of $72

Fort Lauderdale Stakes - Race #10 at Gulfstream Park –Post Time 4:34 PM ET

Macagone posted the 35 to 1 upset in a stakes last fall in his first start on turf since being moved to the Mott barn. It wasn't a fluke and he's likely to be in a great spot just behind likely early pacesetters Heart to Heart and Diamond Bachelor in the early stages so, Macagone could get up in time to win his second stakes race in a row, this time opening at 15/1. Jay Gatsby lost all chance when he stumbled at the start in his last race so we'll draw a line through it. Just before that, in the Knickerbocker Stakes, Jay Gatsby missed by a half-length to Heart to Heart (ON) when Heart to Heart (ON) was allowed to coast around the track on incredibly slow fractions. With a much fairer pace to run into in this year's Fort Lauderdale, Jay Gatsby could be up in time to win. Night Prowler ran on well to finish third in the Artie Schiller behind Macagone and gets a change in jockey back to Javier Castellano, who was up for his last win. He fits with these horses and is another contender to be respected in the Fort Lauderdale. Lukes Alley finished second, beaten a half-length, in the 2016 Fort Lauderdale behind Heart to Heart then won the Gulfstream Park Handicap. Rested nine months after that, Lukes Alley was moved to all-weather and didn't do much running when fifth but now back on the turf and proven over the course and the level, he deserves a lot of respect.

Although Heart to Heart is a horse that needs the lead to win and may have to deal with another with the same running style in Diamond Bachelor, I just can't ignore his record of 10 for 18 on grass and the fact he's never been defeated in three races on the Gulfstream Park turf. For exactas and trifectas there are a bunch that can finish second or third, starting with Flatlined, who finished just a neck behind Heart to Heart in the El Prado Stakes last month. Almanaar (GB), winner of the Group 3 Prix Daphnis Stakes in France, makes only his third start after being away from the races for 13 months and could be in the hunt. Rose Brier has never been worse than second in seven races on the Gulfstream Park turf and enters the race off a winning effort in the Tropical Park Handicap, but was disqualified to second. Diamond Bachelor finished second in the Claiming Crown Jewel Stakes in his most recent race and before that won the non-graded Mr. Steele Stakes on this course. Divisidero comes back from seven months off and I think he may need a race before he runs his best but is expected to be a tough campaigner on the turf handicap circuit this year based on his Turf Classic win last May with a 113 figure

Bet Macagone and Lukes Alley to win at odds of 7 to 2 or higher. Add place bets if 8 to 1 or more. 

Consider a $1 exacta box consisting of Macagone, Lukes Alley, Jay Gatsby, Night Prowler, Rose Brier and Heart to Heart

If you played the pick 3 in race 9 and if one of the six horses won the race, then play a daily double using Macagone, Lukes Alley, Jay Gatsby, Night Prowler, Rose Brier and Heart to Heart in race #10 and using Tommy Macho and Realm in race #11 (since the ticket to Dolphus is live). If you played the pick 3 using both Dolphus and Tommy Macho, then just play Realm in race #11.

If you did not play the pick 3 in race #9, then add Dolphus in race #11

Hal's Hope Stakes - Race #11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:05 PM ET

Dolphus ran the best race of his career in his last start, on 12/11, his second off a four month layoff and first ever at Gulfstream. He romped home by 9 lengths in his first start versus older, with a strong 113 Equibase figure that's as good as the 114 figure Tommy Macho earned winning the similar Grade 3 Fred Hooper Stakes last winter over the track at the distance. Likely to improve in his 2nd start off a layoff, and being able to identify the reason for the breakout effort (blinkers on), although his 12/1 starting odds are likely to be much lower Dolphus likely offers a lot of value for win bets. Similarly, Tommy Macho opens at 9 to 2. His pattern for a big effort is unmistakable as he won the Hooper last year off a two month layoff, at this mile trip with Saez in the saddle. He's been off three months this time and Saez gets back on after two races with other jockeys so a similar top effort is forecast. Realm was very sharp winning a one turn mile in November at Aqueduct off a rest. He was overmatched but didn't run that badly when 3rd of 10 in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile three weeks later and has been rested for his four year old campaign, so should fire a big shot fresh. 

Bet Dolphus and Tommy Macho to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Note: If you are live in either the pick 3 or double to either of those, a win bet may not be needed.

The exacta box between the three contenders is a KEY BET in my opinion. Play an exacta box consisting of Dolphus, Tommy Macho and Realm.

Join Ellis Starr on 123bet and receive $10 FREE when you sign up with Promo Code BetWithEllis.



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