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Betting with Ellis Starr - July 1, 2017

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, July 1

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Perfect Sting Stakes - Race #7 at Belmont Park – Post Time 4:46 PM ET

Off Limits ran the best race of her career and since coming to the U.S. last time out on June 1 over this course at this mile trip. She had been off for nine months and the time off did her a world of good, so with John Velazquez getting on and improving to do second off the layoff she's got a nice shot to win opening at 4 to 1. Conquest Babayaga missed by a head in a stakes on the course last month as well, Rosario up then and staying aboard. She won two in a row prior that and since changing to the Brown barn and now with three wins and one second place finish on turf in her career would be no surprise to earn her first stakes win today. On Leave finished second to a future stakes star (Cambodia) in the Gallorette Stakes on Preakness day and is another likely to improve second off a layoff since last year. She reeled off four straight wins last spring and summer and so may be sitting on another stakes winning effort. Ultimate Holiday posted the 33 to 1 upset last month in a third level allowance field and in her first turf race ever at Belmont. It may not have been a fluke as she won by nine lengths sprinting on dirt in February for her second win since joining the Nevin barn. There's not much other early speed in the field so we may expect Ultimate Holiday to be in front from the start which makes her pretty dangerous again particularly as she opens at 8 to 1. 

Bet Off Limits to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Consider a smaller win bet on Ultimate Holiday at 4 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Off Limits, Conquest Babayaga, On Leave and Off Limits.

Consider a trifecta box between the same four horses as well. 


Mother Goose Stakes- Race #9 at Belmont Park –Post Time 5:50 PM ET

Lockdown may be a standout, as the chart caller's comment "nightmarish trip" from the Kentucky Oaks is spot on. With trouble at three different points during the race, Lockdown's third place finish was an extraordinary effort. Before that she finished second to a 13 length winner and prior to that she won the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct in January. Jose Ortiz was up for that win as well as in the Oaks and likely desperately wants to ride the filly back as he knows how good she might be. With a field high 101 Equibase figure from her Oaks effort to improve upon by leaps and bounds with a clean trip, Lockdown is a KEY BET low odds overlay in this year's Mother Goose Stakes. My Miss Tapit likely offers the most betting value of a Pletcher trained trio also consisting of Lights of Medina and Moana, as she's a perfect two-for-two (with 95 and 94 figures) and bested Actress in her most recent win, with that one coming back to win the Black Eyed Susan Stakes. Lights of Medina missed by a head to Actress in the Black Eyed Susan and has no real knocks except a career best 93 figure fairly inferior to the top pick. Unchained Melody got the experience of a race at Belmont in when winning at this one-turn mile and one-sixteenth trip last month and should be a factor, noting trainer Brian Lynch saddled Lightstream to finish third in this race last year. 

Bet Lockdown to win at odds of 1 to 1 (even money) or higher.

Consider a smaller win bet on My Miss Tapit at 3 to 1 or more. 

Play an exacta consisting of Lockdown over My Miss Tapit, Lights of Medina and Unchained Melody.

Play the reverse of that exacta as well, for half of the wager amount you played it with Lockdown on top. 


United Nations Stakes - Race #11 at Monmouth Park – Post Time 5:57 PM ET

Closing Bell is confidently raised in class off a win at the second allowance condition to this Grade 1 stakes level by Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott but he proved he fits at the level in 2015 as a three year old when finishing second in the Secretariat Stakes behind the world class turf star Highland Reel before a win in the 2015 Dueling Grounds Derby (the same race Oscar Performance won in 2016). He went on a losing streak until a big effort in his most recent start at 12 furlongs and has a nice shot to upset, opening at 10/1. Itsinthepost has been ultra-consistent recently with seven straight first or second place finishes before a fifth in his most recent race. However, in that race he was beaten just a series of heads and noses for the runner-up spot. Expect Itsinthepost to be in contention from start to finish from his inside post and under Tyler Baze, who comes from California to ride. Bigger Picture finished third behind Itsinthepost in the Elkhorn Stakes(in April)and two races before that took the John B. Connally Stakes at this 11 furlong trip on grass. He also won the Red Smith Handicaplast fall at the same distance, one he apparently likes very much, so we can count on him for another top effort. Oscar Performance, Beach Patrol, Messi and Liam the Charmer all have some chance to finish in-the-money so can be used on exacta and trifecta tickets played.

Bet Closing Bell to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Add a place bet at 5 to 1 or more

Play an exacta of Closing Bell, Itsinthepost and Bigger Picture over Closing Bell, Itsinthepost, Bigger Picture, Oscar Performance, Beach Patrol, Messi and Liam the Charmer.


Smile Sprint Stakes - Race #13 at Gulfstream Park –Post Time 6:06 PM ET

Imperial Hint is the real deal, with six wins in 10 races including three in a row. One of those was the Grade 3 General George Stakes in February at 7 furlongs. Although his recent efforts make it appear he needs the lead to win, he proved that not to be the case last September when patiently sitting in fifth in the early stages before drawing off. Javier Castellano, in from New York to ride the stakes laden Gulfstream Park card, takes the call and was up just once before on this colt, for that off-the-pace win, so no matter the pace scenario it will be tough to beat Imperial Hint, whose last race 120 Equibase Figure towers over the field. Awesome Banner returns to Gulfstream where all six of his career wins have come so can improve off a fine effort when beaten a half-length in a similar grade 3 stakes. Quijote ran the best race of his career in his first local start and first for De La Cerda when last seen and the 109 figure is the 2nd bet in the field so he should be in the thick of the action for second. Royal Squeeze won a non-graded stakes over the track when last seen and fits as well for a good piece of the purse.

Bet Imperial Hint to win at 1 to 1 (even money) or more. 

Play a trifecta consisting of Imperial Hint over Awesome Banner, Quijote and Royal Squeeze (in both the second and third place positions)


Join Ellis Starr on 123bet and receive $10 FREE when you sign up with Promo Code BetWithEllis.

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