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Betting with Ellis Starr - July 15, 2017

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, July 15


Hockessin Stakes - Race #7 at Delaware Park – Post Time 4:21 PM ET

Pick 3 – Races 7 through 9

Race 7 – Eighty Three, Never Gone South, Always Sunshine, Struth

Race 8 – Lunaire, Frostmourne, Adonis Creed, Master Plan

Race 9 – Songbird

Kent Stakes - Race #8 at Delaware Park – Post Time 4:55 PM ET

Lunaire rallied from eighth to fourth last month in an allowance race at Belmont that has turned out to be a KEY race as winner Bricks and Mortar came back to win the Manila Stakes and the runner-up came back to win as well. Smith rides back and the colt is making his third start off a layoff, often a peak effort. In that race last month Lunaire seared the course in the last quarter with a 21.4 fraction while making up five lengths and has a big shot to post the mild upset here opening at 4 to 1. Likely favorite Frostmourne (8 to 5 morning line odds) is a very good colt who also has run the best two races of his career in his last two starts, culminating with a win in the Grade 2 Penn Mile with a 22.5 last quarter mile and field high 105 Equibase Figure (compared to 100 for Lunaire). None of these, with the exception of Adonis Creed, have run nine furlongs on turf so taking very low odds on Frostmourne as a win bet is not a good idea although he does look tough. Master Plan won the Stanton Stakes over the course last month, with Adonis Creed second, and both should be considered for exotic wagers we make involving this race. 

Bet Lunaire to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more. 

Play an exacta box and a trifecta box between Lunaire, Frostmourne, Adonis Creed and Master Plan

Duchess Stakes - Race #8 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:58 PM ET

My Arch Enemy took three starts to break her maiden last year and took three starts off a layoff to earn her second win last month. That win was huge as she drew off to win by six lengths in "ridden out" fashion, which means gas in the tank. Boulanger rides back and she's one of three Casse starters in the race. Although she's the 2 to 1 morning line choice I'm not sure that will be her odds at post time as Casse's other runners both ran in stakes last out while she won an allowance race. Tulsa Queen is the other win contender, having improved markedly in her last two races, the first of two a 10th to 2nd finish and the 2nd of the pair a win. Both came on the all-weather at Presque Isle so she should have no problem running on this surface. Additionally, she beat OLDER in that last effort and now faces three year olds only. 

Bet bot My Arch Enemy and Tulsa Queen at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Optionally, play an exacta consisting of My Arch Enemy and Tulsa Queen over ALL. 

Stormy Blues Stakes- Race #10 at Laurel Park –Post Time 5:40 PM ET

Deer Valley and Morticia stick out in this race, with six of the other seven having done their best running on the lead. At the least R Naja (from the rail) and Smiling Causeway will likely run the first quarter in 21.2 and that hot tempo sets up both Deer Valley and Morticia nicely, with Deer Valley offering a little more value opening at 4 to 1. Morticia won a stakes at 7 furlongs on turf when last seen, with a 96 Equibase Figure, while Deer Valley won a stakes at 5 furlongs with a 98 figure and both are lightly raced enough to run as well or better in this situation.

Bet Deer Valley and Morticia to win at odds of 9 to 5or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Deer Valley and Morticia over ALL.

Consider a trifecta consisting of Deer Valley and Morticia over ALL over Deer Valley and Morticia

Indiana Oaks - Race #8 at Indiana Grand –Post Time 9:21 PM ET

Majestic Quality was only beaten a length and one-half for the win in the Summertime Oaks last month after rallying from last of 8. That race is turning out to be productive, as fourth place finisher It Tiz Well came out of it to win the Delaware Oaks last weekend. Majestic Quality ran the best race of her life right before the Oaks when winning by almost seven lengths and earning a career best 106 Equibase Speed Figure that is also the best of any horse in the field. Mopotism beat Majestic Quality by a length and one-half when second in the Oaks with a career best effort and a 101 Equibase Figure. She too will be passing many of these late and would be no surprise winning. Overture makes her first start in a two-turn race, having never missed the board once in four previous starts at distances including this one and one-sixteenth mile trip at Belmont, a one-turn race. She gets the ground saving rail and is bred to love two-turns as both of her siblings on the dam's side are dirt route winners, one of them a stakes winner at nine furlongs. Although Overture faded to be a well beaten third in her most recent race, that one too has proven to be productive as winner Unchained Melody returned to win the Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes last weekend.

Bet Majestic Quality to win at 2 to 1 odds or higher.

Play an exacta box between Majestic Quality, Mo potism and Overture

Indiana Derby - Race #9 at Indiana Grand –Post Time 9:49 PM ET

Wild Shot stretches back out to two turns and his recent form has consisted of a good effort followed by a poor effort so as he finished seventh last out he's in line to run big just as he did two back when winning the Pat Day Mile with a 110 Equibase figure that trounces these (even Irap) if repeated. From an inside post he can establish the lead if Lanerie chooses or he can sit off the pace and rally to win. Colonelsdarktemper was not disgraced when 2nd to McCraken in the Matt Winn Stakes last month. He won strongly before that with a 107 figure, beating Awesome Saturday by a neck and continues in strong form. Before just missing to Colonelsdarktemper, Awesome Saturday finished a half-length behind No Mo Dough, who won the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness weekend, so he fits just fine with these. Irap is not totally vulnerable but loses Leparoux (who was aboard for his last 2 wins) and his last race and career 101 best figure is below that of the top three contenders. For exotics we will consider Society Beau, Watch Me Whip and Hollywood Handsome.

Bet Wild Shot to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Make a second, smaller, win bet on Colonelsdarktemper and Awesome Saturday at 5 to 1 or higher

Play an exacta consisting of Wild Shot, Colonelsdarktemper and Awesome Saturday over Wild Shot, Colonelsdarktemper, Awesome Saturday, Society Beau, Irap, Hollywood Handsome and Watch Me Whip

Join Ellis Starr on 123bet and receive $10 FREE when you sign up with Promo Code BetWithEllis.



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