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Betting with Ellis Starr - July 21, 2017

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets & Races for Friday, July 21

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Lake George Stakes - Race #9 at Saratoga –Post Time 5:40 PM

Two stakes fill a great opening day card at Saratoga but the Lake George is the more playable of the two with a field of 10 fairly evenly matched three year old fillies running on the turf. Defiant Honor is the one I'll start with, opening at impossible to pass up odds of 10/1. Following her 6th place debut last summer (beaten only a length and one-half), Defiant Honor has won two races and finished second in the other, that being the similar Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes in California last November. Rested seven months from that race, Defiant Honor returned as if she had never been away, winning on the turf at Belmont last month. Likely to improve nicely off that effort and already proven at this level, the filly gets John Velazquez to ride and has the tactical speed to be in good position from start to finish, or if no one wants the lead had the ability to get that lead and dig in late to post the upset. Sweeping Paddy won the Grade 3 Regret Stakes on the turf at Churchill Downs last month, a career best effort under Saez, who rides back. She led late and lost ground for 3rd and 2nd place finishes, respectively, prior to that but last out she was taken a bit further back early (about six lengths) and that worked out perfectly so if the same tactics are employed she could win her second graded stakes in a row. Party Boat is three for six on turf in her career including a pair of non-graded stakes wins last December and this past April. She ran big  in her most recent race when beaten less than a length in the Penn Oaks in spite of traffic trouble and is reunited with Rosario, who rode her to both stakes victories to date. Fifty Five won the similar Grade 3 Florida Oaks in March and in her most recent race on June 8 finished second in the Grade 3 Wonder Again Stakes to New Money Honey, last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner who came out of the Wonder Again to take the $1 million Belmont Oaks Invitational recently, so she adds to the depth of this year's Lake George field. 

Bet Defiant Honor to win and to place at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Consider win bets on Sweeping Paddy and on Party Boat at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Defiant Honor, Sweeping Paddy, Party Boat and Fifty Five.

As for the trifecta there are two options – Option 1 is to box the four above and option two is to take a shot with anyone in the rest of the field for third, maybe even playing that instead of the exacta box. That wager is as follows: Defiant Honor, Sweeping Paddy, Party Boat and Fifty Five over Defiant Honor, Sweeping Paddy, Party Boat and Fifty Five over ALL. The cost of the wager if all 10 horses run is $48.

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