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Betting with Ellis Starr - July 29, 2017

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, July 29

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Vanderbilt Handicap - Race #8 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:02 PM ET

El Deal ships in from Monmouth and is the speed of the speed. He reminds me of Grade 1 Forego winner Private Zone who Navarro trained. El Deal earned a 125 pace figure last time out so it would be pace suicide if another horse tries to take him on. He's two-for-two since joining the Navarro barn and when the trainer gets Castellano to ride they are 4 for 7 in stakes races over the past couple of years. A. P Indian won the Forego at Saratoga last summer off a win in this race and those two Grade 1 wins helped to give him an 11 for 20 career mark. He's zero for 2 this year but finished second both times and his best race is good enough to win so if he can stay close to El Deal he's got a shot. Limousine Liberal gets a jockey change back to Ortiz, who rode him to victory in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby day. He's won three stakes in a row and is another that can win if he can stay close to El Deal early and if that one can't go all the way. Bird Song cuts back from two turns to one and has won sprinting. He won the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes on Kentucky Oaks day and put in a spectacular best of 99 workout for a half mile coming into the race so must be considered a contender as well.

Bet El Deal to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Play a trifecta box consisting of El DealA.P. IndianLimousine Liberal and Bird Song.

Play a pick 4 as follows:

Race 8 - El DealA.P. IndianLimousine Liberal and Bird Song

Race 9 – Hello Don JulioFrank ConversationSadler's JoyAscend and Bigger Picture

Race 10 – PavelAlways Dreaming and Cloud Computing

Race 11 – Durable GoodsFreedomRemarqued and Magical Sky

Cost is $120 at $0.50 but could pay 5 to 10 times that amount.

If you want to cut down the cost of the ticket to $40 use only Pavel in race 10 because many bettors will be using the other two, meaning if this ticket wins it will be well worth the risk.


Bowling Green Stakes - Race #9 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:40 PM ET

Hello Don Julio continues to improve and is ready for this level. He has improved his Equibase figure in three straight races with a career best 113 figure last out. John Velazquez rode him to victory last summer at 10 furlongs and he ran well when 2nd at this 11 furlong trip right before that. Frank Conversation is a grade 2 winner having won the Twilight Derby on the turf last fall. He ran well versus similar when second, beaten only a half-length, in the Charles Whittingham Stakes at 10 furlongs on turf in last May in California and he shows a lot of fight in the  last eighth of a mile in his last two races.  Sadler's Joy & Ascend just finished third and first, respectively, in the Manhattan Stakes, with Sadler's Joy having raced wider from a farther outside post than Ascend. Today their posts are reversed so Sadler's Joy may have a slight edge over Ascent and as he's a grade 2 winner at a mile and one-half he fits on all counts here. Ascent posted the upset in the Manhattan, his third straight win, Ortiz up for the first time and riding back. He's won six of his last 10 and certainly can't be ruled out as a contender. Bigger Picture is another I just can't completely ignore when considering wagers in this race. He's 10 for 25 overall and a grade 1 winner in form after winning the United Nations stakes four weeks ago with Bravo up then as now, and he's won on the Saratoga turf previously.

Bet Hello Don Julio to win and place at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Consider a second win bet, for a smaller amount, on Frank Conversation, at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box among Hello Don JulioFrank ConversationSadler's JoyAscend and Bigger Picture.


Jim Dandy Stakes - Race #10 at Saratoga – Post Time 6:18 PM ET

I'm not going to talk about this race specifically but we are using three horses in the pick 4 started in the eighth race and if you play any pick 3 tickets or doubles use all three. They are Always DreamingCloud Computing and Pavel.

Considering Pavel opens at 6 to 1 and the other two at prohibitively low odds, I would bet Pavel to win at 2 to 1 or more.

Race #11 at Saratoga – Post Time 6:54 PM ET

Magical Sky ran very nicely when rallying from last of nine to get second, beaten just a half-length, in her career debut at a mile on grass last month. Leparoux replaces Ruiz, a huge jockey change to go along with logical physical and mental improvement off the experience of a race. Durable Goods also rallied very well at a mile on turf in her career debut last month, from 12th of 13 early to 2nd at the end and in spite of some traffic issues. With Ortiz riding back for the high percentage Brown barn, she has as much probability to succeed at Magical Sky. Freedom has been unlucky, or just has run into a horse inches better than she is, in both starts, both turf routes, losing by a neck each time. Remarqued tried turf off a poor dirt race in her career debut and finished well for 2nd so rounds out the quartet that can win here.

Bet Magical Sky and/or Durable Goods to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Consider wagers on Freedom and Remarqued at 7 to 2 odds or higher.

Play an exacta and trifecta box consisting of Magical SkyDurable GoodsFreedom and Remarqued


Bing Crosby Stakes - Race #9 at Del Mar – Post Time 9:10 PM ET

The last two efforts Roy H put forth were the two best in his career, first with a 120 Equibase Speed Figure on May 6 in California then a 127 figure when victorious in the True North Stakes on June 9. He's back in California and brings along Paco Lopez, who rode him for the first time in the True North. Roy H doesn't need the lead to win and will be stalking a hot pace, perhaps sizzling hot if St Joe Bay goes for the lead and Drefong goes or presses. Ransom the Moon also ran the two best races of his career in his two most recent starts, shortly after returning from nearly five months off and moving to the barn of Phil D'Amato. First he won his comeback race on April 30, a second level allowance race, then he won the Kona Gold Stakes with a career best 114 Equibase figure. Bettering that by far with a 120 figure effort when just a neck shy of winning the San Carlos Stakes, Ransom the Moon should run as well or better with Prat riding once more and with a huge third best of 93 five furlong workout coming into the race. Drefong can't be ruled out when considering exotic wagers and multi-race bets like the pick 3 but he's impossible to bet to win at low odds. He won five in a row following a defeat in his career debut in the fall of 2015, culminating with a win in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last November. He will be overbet based on that win and this is 8 months later and in spite of fast workouts there is no telling if he can pick up where he left off. Even if he does, he still may not win as the 118 figure he earned in the BC Sprint is still NOT as good as the 127 figure Roy H earned in his most recent race and the 121 figure Ransom the Moon earned in his last start. Additionally, Drefong will have to sit second in the early stages because St. Joe Bay is unlikely to let any horse lead in the opening yards and as Drefong is going to be very fresh off the layoff even Mike Smith may not be able to keep him from dueling with St. Joe Bay in the early stages and setting up one of the stalkers above to win.

Bet Roy H to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Consider a win bet on Ransom the Moon at 5 to 2 odds or higher as well.

Play an exacta of Roy H and Ransom the Moon over Roy HRansom the Moon and Drefong.

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