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Betting with Ellis Starr - July 8, 2017

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, July 8


Parx Dash - Race #9 at Parx – Post Time 4:31 PM ET

Vision Perfect was claimed for $80,000 out of his most recent race when third in a seven furlong turf sprint at Belmont last month. The horse has won over $400,000 in his career on turf and is only a five year old so it appears to be a good investment on the part of his new owner. The new trainer is none other than high percentage Jason Servis (29% on the year), who has won with 14 of his last 35 claimed horses over the past 18 months or so. Better still, a statistic I looked up from Stats Race Lens tells me over the last five years when Servis claims and goes right into a stakes race his record is 2-1-1 in 7 tries. With top jockey Sanchez named to ride and cutting back from 7 furlongs to five, the horse should be closing fast and can post the upset, opening at 10/1. Amelia's Wild Ride gives us another horse to bet to win, opening at 8/1 in spite of having earned nearly $600,000 in his career. He's making his 2nd start since returning from 14 months off and his troubled 3rd place finish behind Richard's Boy in the similar Turf Sprint Stakes in May was a fine effort after that much time off, particularly as the runner-up came right back to win. Richard's Boy won the Pennsylvania Governor's cup via a disqualification last month and might have won on the square if not for the antics of the original winners so has to be considered a win contender. Mongolian Saturday is a multiple stakes winner who ran second in the Turf Monster Handicap at the distance over the course previously, while Pure Sensation won this race last year and is the one that defeated Mongolian Saturday by a nose the previous summer. That rounds out the win contenders, in preference (probability) order, noting we should probably consider Platinum Prince for the second and third spot on exacta and trifecta tickets played.

Bet Vision Perfect to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet if 6 to 1 or higher. 

Make an additional win bet, on Amelia's Wild Ride, at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta consisting of Vision Perfect, Amelia's Wild Ride, Richard's Boy, Mongolian Saturday and Pure Sensation over Vision Perfect, Amelia's Wild Ride, Richard's Boy, Mongolian Saturday, Platinum Prince and Pure Sensation

Dwyer Stakes - Race #6 at Belmont Park – Post Time 4:38 PM ET

I am going to take a stand against Practical Joke, the second morning line choice at 7 to 5, not just because he is likely to be heavily bet off his 5th place Kentucky Derby finish, but because he's just not as good as a three year old as he was as a two year old. He ran second to Irap in the Blue Grass Stakes before the Derby and second to Gunnevera in the Fountain of Youth in his other three year old starts and neither of those two winners impresses me much. Instead, I'm going to use Giuseppe the Great and Battalion Runner to start a pick 3 and bet Giuseppe the Great to win as he opens at 5 to 1o compared to 6 to 5 for Battalion Runner. Giuseppe the Great has improved in every race since his February debut, his last effort a rock solid runner-up behind American Anthem in the Woody Stephens Stakes on Belmont Stakes day with a career best 106 Equibase figure every bit as good as the 104 Battalion Runner earned when last seen finishing second in the Wood Memorial in April. Tyler Gaffalione comes off an unbelievable day last week when winning seven races on the day and has ridden the colt very well in his last two starts. Battalion Runner has finished first or second in all four starts to date, with 108 and 104 figures that match up well with the 104 and 106 figures Giuseppe the Great earned in his last two races. For comparison, Practical Joke earned no better than a pair of 98 figures so far this year. Battalion Runner will love this one turn mile as he earned his maiden win by eight lengths at seven furlongs and he would be no surprise if winning. 

Bet Giuseppe the Great to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Play an exacta box between Giuseppe the Great and Battalion Runner. 

Pick 3:

Race 6 – Giuseppe the Great, Battalion Runner

Race 7 – Green Gratto, Unified, Mind Your Biscuits

Race 8 – Beau Recall, Dynatail, Sistercharlie

Cost for $1 is $18

Belmont Sprint Championship - Race #7 at Belmont Park – Post Time 5:13 PM ET

Green Gratto won the Carter Handicap at high oddsin April with a 112 Equibase Figure but perhaps those odds were out of line as he had won the Toboggan Stakes three months earlier at 5 to 2 odds. In two starts since then, he finished fourth and fifth but in both races he didn't have the early lead all to himself that he had in the Carter and that he is likely to have again in this race. Five of the seven runners in this race have shown no early speed through the half-mile mark in nearly all their races, leaving only Green Gratto and Unified to be in the first two positions in the early stages. With Green Gratto drawn inside of Unified and with a big jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr. for the first time, as well as with a very swift 46.2 half-mile workout coming into the race that was the fastest of 56 on the day, it appears Green Gratto can successfully play "come catch me" with the field to earn the win in this race. Unified is a very lightly raced four year old who has won four of five one-turn races in his career, the best being the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes with a 115 figure in February. Not disgraced one bit when second by a head to Green Grattoin the Carter following that, Unified has been rested three months and has won all three starts in his career off a layoff. Jose Ortiz is a perfect three-for-three when riding this colt, more reasons to like the chances of Unified. Mind Your Biscuits ran huge when facing older open (not restricted) company for the first time and finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall. Showing even better form nearly two months later, Mind Your Biscuits won the Malibu Stakes in impressive fashion and with a 122 figure before a comeback loss in his 2017 debut to Unified in February. Shipped to Dubai after that, Mind Your Biscuits won the $2 million Golden Shaheen Stakes in March in a 14 horse field. Freshened again and with a pair of very swift recent workouts at Belmont in preparation for this race, Mind Your Biscuits certainly can win but like four others in here, Mind Your Biscuits may be mid-pack to far back in the early stages of this race and his late kick could be potentially disadvantaged by a leisurely and uncontested pace set by Green Gratto

Bet Green Gratto to win and place at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Green Gratto, Unified and Mind Your Biscuits over Green Gratto, Unified, Mind Your Biscuits, Stallwalkin' Dude, Tommy Macho and Awesome Slew.

Belmont Oaks Invitational - Race #8 at Belmont Park – Post Time 5:46 PM ET

Sistercharlie is one of a few horses coming in from Europe to this $1 million race and by far she's the best of the group. Sistercharlie just finished 2nd of 16 in the French Oaks, beaten a length for the win and very game in holding second by a nose on the wire. She's run three big races in a row at a mile and five-sixteenths so this mile and one-quarter trip should be no issue at all and she gets the services of John Velazquez as well. Sistercharlie opens as the 5 to 2 favorite and may not be a great win bet but the next two win contenders open at double digit odds so there's a lot of opportunity for profit in the race. Beau Recall (12/1 morning line) is the first of the two, having finished second in three straight stakes, two graded, in California to streaking Sircat Sally. That one's not here and Southern California leading jockey Flavien Prat comes in to ride this filly who has a big kick (last 1/8 in 11.4) so we must give her a big shot. Dynatail is another to consider, opening at 12/1. She's four for 10 in her career including a sharp win last month in the $200K Pennsylvania Oaks. Her sigher is by Mineshaft and her damsire is Dynaformer so this trip should suit her just fine. Saez was up for the first time in her last win and rides back and this gal certainly knows where the wire is. 

For exacta and trifecta tickets we should add some of the other European runners (Uni, Key to My Heart) and a pair of horses (New Money Honey, Fifty Five) that ran first and second in the Wonder Again Stakes over the course last month but with a pretty low Equibase figure (96) compared to the main contenders. 

Bet Beau Recall and Dynatail to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher. Add a place bet at 7 to 1 or more. 

"IF" Sistercharlie goes to post at 2 to 1 or more she's a good bet as well. 

If Sistercharlie goes to post at under 2 to 1 we can play the exacta of Sistercharlie over Beau Recall and Dynatail instead of a win bet, or 

we can play Sistercharlie over Beau Recall, Key To My Heart, Uni, New Money Honey, Dynatail and Fifty Five

In addition to the "exacta in lieu of a win bet play on Sistercharlie above, play an exacta consisting of Sistercharlie, Beau Recall and Dynatail, over Sistercharlie, Beau Recall, Key To My Heart, Uni, New Money Honey, Dynatail and Fifty Five

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