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Betting with Ellis Starr - June 17, 2017

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, June 17


Alma North Stakes - Race #9 at Laurel Park – Post Time 5:10 PM ET

Follow No One comes off a very strong 6 length win 19 days ago at Monmouth, a race scheduled for turf but run on the main track that let her connections know she is as good on dirt as on turf, where her five starts before that had come. She can win on the lead or from off the pace and on the cut back from two turns to one turn and running 2nd off a layoff she can run well enough to win, providing a lot of value as she opens at 10/1. Sine Wave ran very well when 2nd to Sweet Loretta in the Grade 3 Beaumont Stakes at this 7 furlong trip when last seen. The drop in class to the non-graded stakes level may help her run as she did right before that when winning by 7 lengths at the trip. Yellow Agate began her career with an eye catching win last summer at Belmont before winning the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes in her 2nd career start. She ran poorly around two turns in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies but has been allowed to mature, returning around one turn and with some sharp workouts as well, signs she can run well enough to win. Shimmering Again also cuts back to one turn and is likely to lead from the start in an attempt to wire the field. Astrollinthepark also has a lot of early speed and lost all chance at the start in the Miss Preakness Stakes last month when she stumbled badly. These last two may battle and tire but can hang on for second. 

Bet Follow No One to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Add a place bet if 5 to 1 or more.  

Play an exacta consisting of Follow No One and Sine Wave over Follow No One, Sine Wave, Yellow Agate, Shimmering Again and Astrollinthepark. 

Consider playing the above exacta in reverse as well. 

Salvatore Mile Stakes - Race #10 at Monmouth Park – Post Time 5:20 PM ET

Far from Over benefits nicely from a likely early pace battle between a pair of need-the-lead types in Classy Class and Red Dragon Tattoo, helping him duplicate his win off a long layoff nearly a year ago to the week in a route at Belmont, in which he earned a stakes quality 111 Equibase figure. Winner of the 2015 Withers Stakes in only the 2nd start of his career, he has been plagued with physical problems so he's only started four times but he's won all three times he's come back fresh and can do so again to add to Pletcher's strong numbers (16 for 38 in the past 2 years) with horse coming back from 6 months or more in dirt routes. Just Call Kenny opens at 20/1 and gives us lots of value for exactas at the least, maybe at least a minimum $2 or $5 win bet as well. He's earned nearly $350,000, has won at Monmouth and enters the race off a runner-up finish rallying from 5th at 7 furlongs, so around two turns he should be passing a lot of tired horses late.

Bet Far From Over to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more. 

Consider a smaller win bet on Just Call Kenny at 6 to 1 or more, with a place bet a good idea at 10 to 1 or more.

Play two $.50 trifecta as follows:

Far From Over and Just Call Kenny over Far From Over and Just Call Kenny over ALL

Far From Over and Just Call Kenny over ALL over Far From Over and Just Call Kenny

Race #8 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:30 PM ET

Wood Machine shipped into So. Cal. from Arizona for veteran trainer Chambers last month and posted the 9 to 1 upset with Stevens aboard. Gary rides back and the horse who is now 4 for 6 on the year can win again. Sky Preacher also just won at this mile turf trip on the course, at the 50K level, so fits perfectly at this 25K starter handicap level (doubling the starter allowance condition to get the equivalent claiming price). Bejarano rides back off the Sadler claim and the runner-up flattered the horse by winning right back. Lucky J Lane finished 2nd of 7 on dirt last out following the Knapp claim and I figure the trainer wanted a race in him before finding this spot on turf as 4 of his 6 career wins have come on the grass so he should run as well or better here. Hay Dude won a turf sprint last out on 5/14 following 7 months off with Prat aboard for the first time. He can improve 2nd off the layoff and has won going long on grass before so rounds out a pretty strong group of win contenders in this race. 

Bet Wood Machine to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. 

Play a Double using Wood Machine, Sky Preacher, Lucky J Lane and Hay Dude in race 8 with It Tiz Well, Majestic Quality, Noted and Quoted and Faypien in race 9

Summertime Oaks Stakes - Race #9 at Santa Anita – Post Time 8:00 PM ET

If the race goes as drawn, it appears that the two horses that are stretching out with early speed- Sheza Chattykat and Selcourt, will battle for the lead on fast fractions and set up the closers. Of that group, It Tiz Well gets preference as the only one with a previous graded stakes win, that coming in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn in March. She won here at SA prior to that and finished 3rd in the SA Oaks after that. Blinkers go on for the 1st time and that could be the key to her best effort yet, particularly with a blinkers on/fast workout pattern and a jockey change to Mike Smith. Majestic Quality is likely to go to post at high odds and I wouldn't hesitate betting her as well. She just broke her maiden in a maiden race but also as a maiden she also finished 2nd to Farrell in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes two races prior to that. Like the top pick she ran poorly in the SA Oaks but with Kent Desormeaux riding for brother Keith and with her last race Equibase figure (106) actually better than It Tiz Well's 103 Honeybee figure this gal is begging to potentially post the upset or at least outrun high odds. Noted and Quoted won the Grade 1 Chandelier Stakes last fall over the track on the stretch out from 7 furlongs and is going long off a 7 furlong race today as well, a decent rallying runner-up finish with a 103 figure equal to It Tiz Well's best figure. Faypien is the one that beat Noted and Quoted last out and her only knock compared to the other three win contenders is that she's trying two turns for the 1st time. She's bred in spades to get the trip and must be considered a win contender as well. 

Make a win bet on It Tiz Well at 5 to 2 or higher.

Consider a win bet on Majestic Quality at 3 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta box consisting of It Tiz Well, Majestic Quality, Noted and Quoted and Faypien.

Join Ellis Starr on 123bet and receive $10 FREE when you sign up with Promo Code BetWithEllis.



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