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Betting with Ellis Starr - June 24, 2017

Posted by on in 123racing Pick6 Wager
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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, June 24

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Race #7 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:24 PM ET

Brass Compass won at the non-winners of 3 allowance level in March in Florida, equivalent to this non-winners of 2 other than level. He drops out of classified allowance after a 3rd place finish and is in for the optional $62,500 claiming price back at the level of the win. The move back to turf where he won in March and the jockey change to Hernandez help his chances to post the mild upset. Best Bard has been part of the exacta in 15 of 31 races including a 2nd place finish under these conditions last month. He has won at the level so is also in for the optional $62,500 claiming price. DaSilva rode him to the win last fall, the runner-up finish last out, and rides today. Both contenders should benefit greatly from a hot early pace battle between Royal Son, Naveah's Valentine and perhaps U S Marshall as well.

Bet Brass Compass to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. 

Play an exacta consisting of Brass Compass and Best Bard over Brass Compass, Best Bard, Johnny Bear, Naveah's Valentine, Niigon's Glory and U S Marshall. 

Pick 3 (2 bets)

Race 7 – Brass Compass, Best Bard

Race 8 – Lounge Act, Dream It Is

Race 9 - Chedington, Awfully Sinful, Aunt Sue

Race 7 – Brass Compass, Best Bard

Race 8 – Lounge Act, Dream It Is

Race 9 - Chedington


My Dear Stakes - Race #8 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:56 PM ET

The two morning line favorites, Lounge Act and Dream It Is, appear to stick out in this stakes race for two year old fillies, but that doesn't mean the race is unplayable as I don't expect either to be a heavy favorite and in a nine horse field there's value to be had in the exacta as well as part of the pick 3 starting in the seventh race. Lounge Act romped by 7 lengths at Gulfstream Park last month in a 5 furlong race on turf and she changes trainers to the high percentage barn of Brad Cox for this race. Transitioning from turf to all-weather is not an issue and she could control the pace from start to finish. Dream It Is broke her maiden at first asking here at Woodbine last month in impressive fashion, beating two other entrants in this field in the process, and has come back to work well since. She will need to improve off the debut to win but should do just that. 

Play an exacta consisting of Lounge Act and Dream It Is over Lounge Act, Dream It Is, Josephine, Jamaica Me Home and Glamanation.

If the horses we played in the seventh race as part of the pick 3 did not win, play a double consisting of Lounge Act and Dream It Is in race 8 and Chedington, Awfully Sinful and Aunt Sue in race 9. Play an additional double using only Chedington in race 9. 


Race #9 at Woodbine – Post Time 5:27 PM ET

Chedington rallied from 7th of 10, 13 lengths back, to win going away over the track at the distance 20 days ago. That was her first start after 6 months off and first for high percentage trainer McClachrie. Boulanger rides back and the mare should run as well or better 2nd off the layoff and at this 10K starter allowance level she wasn't eligible for until that last race, having faced much tougher in all of 2016. Awfully Sinful finished 2nd in a turf sprint at this level 10 days ago, with a big rally, and as he last win came on the main track at this distance she could run as well on the stretch out. Aunt Sue led in the stretch and settled for 2nd behind Chedington three weeks ago and won a sprint off a layoff prior to that so with DaSilva riding back we can expect another competitive effort.

Bet Chedington to win at 2 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta box between Chedington, Awfully Sinful and Aunt Sue.


Ohio Derby - Race #8 at Thistledown – Post Time 5:30 PM ET

Hinton won in his career debut last summer then was given five months off to mature, returning in a sprint prep to finish third. He stretched out to two turns for the first time in March to win easily then bettered that effort with a career best 96 Equibase Figure when winning his second race in a row. Flattered when the runner-up from that race came back to win, Hinton should have no issue with the mile and one-eighth trip and I like Hinton to pull off the upset in the Ohio Derby. Sorry Erik didn't run very well in his two tries on the Road to the Derby, finishing seventh and then fifth, respectively, behind Girvin in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.When returned to the trainer's home base in California following that, blinkers were removed, which resulted in a career best effort with a 101 figure when rallying from eighth to second at the distance of the Ohio Derby (but on turf). Kent Desormeaux comes in from California to ride for his brother Keith, another reason to consider Sorry Erik as a contender in this race. Girvin ran four "A" races in a row to start his career, winning three and finishing second in the other, before his poor Kentucky Derby effort. He won the Louisiana Derbywith a career best tying 103 figure at the distance of the Ohio Derby before that and his most recent morning workout was the best of the day for five furlongs so he appears to be none the worse for wear. Mike Smith comes in from California to ride and that's a plus as well, so consider Girvin with a strong chance to return to stakes winning form.

Bet Hinton to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Add a place bet if 5 to 1 or more.  

Bet Sorry Erik to win at 3 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box between Hinton, Sorry Erik and Girvin.


Precisionist Stakes - Race #6 at Santa Anita– Post Time 6:30 PM ET

This year's Precisionist Stakes may have only lured five horses but Cat Burglar gets a big push for a win bet anywhere near his 9 to 2 morning line odds. Donworth and Keane are both trying to go long off layoffs longer than six months and should need a race or two before their best. Accelerate is okay coming off 2nd and 3rd place finishes in three straight but he's no standout. That leaves the two Baffert trainees, Collected (likely to go to post as the odds-on favorite) and Cat Burglar, who stretches out from a very fast sprint on March 31 and who won the similar Santana Mile Stakes over the track last April (2016). He won off a layoff in January, 2016 and again in April 2016 as well as off the layoff of nearly 11 months on March 31 this year. Bejarano was up for his last three wins and the horse absolutely LOVES Santa Anita, where he's 6 for 9, accounting for all of his career wins. Additionally, with a huge 59.2 best of 69 five furlong workout coming into the race and with the ability to win on the lead or to stalk Collected if that one goes, Cat Burglar looks to be a KEY bet in this situation.

Bet Cat Burglar to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more. 

Play an exacta box between Cat Burglar and Collected, then play an exacta consisting of Cat Burglar and Collected over Cat Burglar, Collected and Accelerate. 


Join Ellis Starr on 123bet and receive $10 FREE when you sign up with Promo Code BetWithEllis.

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