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Betting with Ellis Starr - May 27, 2017

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, May 27


Red Bank Stakes - Race #9 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:52 PM ET

Synchrony is a four year old who changed trainers between April of 2016 and his comeback in February. His first start back was on dirt and he tired after rallying to third, but when moved to grass for the first time next out on March 20 he improved by a country mile to win in spite of traffic trouble (taken up) and in spite of going six paths wide at the quarter pole. Following that up Synchrony rallied from 10th of 12 to get second, beaten just a half-length at the end. He's still improving and can post the mild upset, opening at 5 to 1. All Included opens as the 9 to 5 favorite based on winning a similar grade 3 stakes in his most recent start and at this mile turf trip. He's earned over a half-million dollars and should continue in top form but may be too low odds for a win bet. Irish Spirit finished fourth in the same race Synchrony finished second in, just a head and nose behind that one. With two of his three career wins on turf having come on the Monmouth turf course and any improvement he could make up the 3/4 of a length he was beaten last out and win. Rose Brier won a similar Grade 3 stakes on the turf in November but has run poorly in two since, including when seventh in the race common to Synchrony and Irish Spirit. However, with Paco Lopez getting on and having won this race last year, he must be considered for wagers we make involving this race.

Bet Synchrony to win ad odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box and trifecta box consisting of Synchrony, All Included, Irish Spirit and Rose Brier

Nassau Stakes - Race #8 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:55 PM ET

Morning line favorite Catch a Glimpse may be vulnerable here not only because she is 0 for 2 this year with her last race eighth place finish last month the worst of her career, but nearly every one of her wins have come when she's led in the early stages and with Caren stretching out and determined to have the lead from the start as usual, the likelihood of a fast pace to set up the stalkers and closers is high. Stormy Victoria opens as the second choice on the morning line at 2 to 1 and certainly fits the bill coming off a fast closing second (beaten a neck) off a five month layoff. However it must be noted she finished fifth as the favorite in last year's Nassau off a win. The best value for win bets and for use on exacta tickets lies with Starship Jubilee, a lightly raced filly with a 6 for 11 record on grass and having won 4 of 5 career two-turn turf races. With DaSilva riding, her 15/1 starting odds demand a win or win & place bet. Shelbysmile has won three of her last four races and five of eight in her career, all on turf. Ignore the race that led to the November to April layoff and her record looks even better. She ran the best race of her career last out in her first start as a four year old and better can be expected here.

Bet Starship Jubilee to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more and add a place bet if 6 to 1 or higher.

Consider a win bet on Shelbysmile at 4 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Stormy Victoria, Starship Jubilee and Shelbysmile.

Monrovia Stakes - Race #7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:00 PM ET

This may be a talented field but still Illuminant stands out. She's the ONLY Grade 1 stakes winner in the field, having won the Gamely Stakes last year on this day, and she returned off a 10 month layoff to win a stakes down the hill in March before not being disgraced one bit when leading through the point this race ends in last month's Jenny Wiley (around two turns) before fading late. Prat rode her impeccably in her downhill turf stakes win on 3/10 with a 107 Equibase figure effort that wins here on the square if repeated.

Bet Illuminant towin at odds of 8 to 5 or more.

Play a double using Illuminant in race 7 and using Big John B, Hard Aces and Midnight Storm in race 8

Gold Cup at Santa Anita - Race #8 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:30 PM ET

American Freedom adds blinkers back and when in blinkers previously wanted the lead from the start. Prime Attraction likes to be 1st or 2nd early and Midnight Storm only knows one way to run, although he can and should still be in the hunt late. All that early pace sets up the closers nicely. Big John B and Hard Aces both can run all day as both have won stakes at a mile and one-half. Big John B missed to Hard Aces by a neck in the Tokyo City Stakes on 4/2 and it's no knock against Bejarano but the jockey change to Smith could help him reverse that finish here. Big John B rarely runs on dirt but has been 1st or 2nd in his last 3 dirt races, all stakes, and could be up in time today. Hard Aces won this race in 2014 and enters this year's edition off a win so must be respected. Midnight Storm can take a licking and keep on ticking, as he did when 2nd in the Santa Anita Handicap behind recent Pimlico Special winner Shaman Ghost and so he round out our trio of win contenders.

Bet Big John B AND Hard Aces to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more

Play an exacta consisting of Big John B, Hard Aces and Midnight Storm over Big John B, Hard Aces, Midnight Storm, Follow Me Crev and Accelerate 

Join Ellis Starr on 123bet and receive $10 FREE when you sign up with Promo Code BetWithEllis.



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