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John Pricci's Weekend Warrior - Travers Day Late Pick 4 - August 27, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

Saratoga - Travers Day Late Pick 4 - August 27, 2016

COMMENTS FROM AUGUST 20 P4 AT SARATOGA - NOTABLE WINNERS & MONEY FINISHERS

RACE 9 - GRADE 1 FOURSTARDAVE | 1 MILE - INNER TURF

Tourist (5-2): won his lone start on this course, three of four at this trip lifetime and exits long series of G1 event. Has enough tactical gas to overcome wide draw and reunites with winning rider Rosario. Worthy favorite.

A Lot (10-1): drops significant weight exiting two rapidly run sprints, gets switch to Javier. Has run very well on this course but this is a different level and had better inside draw in last week’s canceled renewal.

RACE 10 - GRADE 1 ALABAMA | 3YO FILLIES | 1-1/4 MILES

Songbird (1-5): is 9-for-9 lifetime and needs no introduction. Biggest hurdle figures to be today’s trip but did drew out in final furlong winning CCA Oaks here at 9 furlongs July 24. Has continued to train well over the strip.

Going for Broke (10-1): obviously, Chad is en fuego and this filly has benefit of winning 9 furlongs over the track. Only loss sprinting in debut over speed-kind strip. Bred for the trip with Irad on the re-ride and will be running in the lane.

RACE 11 - ALLOWANCES | 1-1/16 MILES - INNER TURF

Orino (10-1): has never been entered this cheaply but draws in with salty NY-Bred group. Barn’s horses always live here, draws pole and attracts Johnny; wakeup potential.

RACE 12 - ALLOWANCES | NY-BRED | 5-1/2 FURLONGS - TURF

True Charm (12-1): comes off comprehensive open lengths score in recent off-turfer here and has run very competitively in two of three turf starts; threat to repeat with Lezcano on the re-ride.

Laura’s Patriot (12-1): was a very willing fourth going 7/8s in Belmont finale and appears well suited by the turnback; getting weight for all and apprentice, struggling here, has ability.

Wantagh Queen (20-1): raced wide in one of these, her Spa turf return, following maiden-claiming Belmont win. Second at this trip last year now gets switch to Geroux; surprise package?

TRAVERS DAY - LATE PICK 4 - AUGUST 27, 2016

RACE 8 - Grade 1 KING’S BISHOP | 3 YO | 7 FURLONGS

Economic Model (6-1): placed gamely after making mid-race run into stretch in G3 Dwyer. Broke maiden here in 2015 and second to rapid Awesome Banner at trip in Swale. Training strongly in blinkers.

Fish Trappe Road (8-1): has improved markedly since turned back into sprint this spring, beating ‘Model’ in latest. Loves this trip (3) 2-1-0 and owns tactical speed and kick; fair value on early line.

Summer Revolution (6-1): has been visually impressive in two rapidly run starts at today’s trip, including Spa debut. Extremely fast figures on both Thoro-Graph and Pricci Energy Rating scales but takes substantial rise here. Intriguing.

Tail of S’avall (30-1): was third behind ‘Model’ and ‘Road’ in Dwyer and did make maiden here in debut at 2. Tough draw given his style and dynamics in bulky field.

Bird Song (30-1): has been developing nicely this summer for Wilkes and jumped up to win Spa debut July 24. Distance should suit, Jose Ortiz re-rides, but makes significant class rise here.

Mohaymen (5-1): has been toughened at the highest levels all season long and is 2-for-2 in career rounding one turn. Suited by dynamics, style and distance but has not shown development since leaving Gulfstream. Mixed signals.

Star Hill (20-1): earned lifetime best figure on T-G scale with benefit of bias two back at Belmont. Rallied very wide in Indiana Derby entering stretch last out now turns back suitably and adds blinkers. Money prospects at big price.

Mind Your Biscuits (15-1): Regressed badly last out after lifetime best score in prior yet still won the G2 Amsterdam. Two-for-two since adding blinkers; loses Rosario but picks up Johnny.

Jazzy Times (8-1): Jumped up to win Del Mar debut @ 6-1/2 furlongs now ships in for Baffert shedding 4 pounds and nicely drawn outside. BB 31% effective removing blinkers, reunites with Bejarano. and Aug. 22 work 2nd fastest of 272 peers last week at SoCal base. Live price shot.

Rated R Superstar (20-1): Found his niche sprinting while taking G3 Carry Back at this trip with strong, late, wide rally at GP July 2. Carefully pointed here since and Cornelio up from SoFla for the re-ride.

Noholdingback Bear (10-1): Certainly is fast enough on performance figures to compete but is 4-for-5 on synthetics and 0-for-4 on dirt. Da Silva shipping down for the ride; decidedly mixed signals.

Tom’s Ready (12-1): had table set and roared home on closer’s track despite altering course deep stretch to win G2 W. Stephens, earning lifetime best figure. Has won 2 of 3 at trip, speedy dynamics aid and retains Rosario. Freshened for this; live price shot.

Drefong (4-1): has continued his march forward in two runs for Bullet Bob at 3, winning both starts while very impressive visually. Has good spacing, worked bullets since, and gets Mike Smith on the re-ride. Wide draw is the good and bad news.

RACE 9 - Grade 1 FOREGO | 3&UP | 7 FURLONGS

Catalina Red (8-1): Hails from Navarro barn that’s 33% effective with sprinters and chestnut 4YO is 3-for-3 this trip. Has tactical speed and kick and may trip out assuming clean break. Willing 3rd despite rough break in G1 Vanderbilt, his Spa debut.

Chief Lion (10-1): Placed gamely after mid-race move on closer’s track August 12, his Spa debut, but has failed to hit the board in two surface starts. Picks up Geroux.

Limousine Liberal (15-1): Was a very good second to Runhappy here in G1 King’s Bishop at 3. Second in G2 Smile Sprint at GP July 4, has been working strongly since at KEE base, and attracts Castellano. Stern pace pressure likely, however.

The Truth Or Else (30-1): Lost all chance making wide rally in recent Spa debut and was a game second in lone start at this trip. This event is a different animal, however.

Anchor Dawn (10-1): Freaked winning G3 Westchester three back then placed gamely in Frosted’s Met Mile before suffering tough trip in Vanderbilt here. Has shown little affinity for surface and may be over the top.

Tamarkuz (15-1): Raced dully in lone start this year, the Met Mile. Non-competitive in this race at 5 and expecting more of same today despite attracting Smith.

Schivarelli (20-1): Likes the trip (5) 2-2-1 and strip (2) 1-0-1, but this is toughest test to date. Picks up Bejarano but is up against it in this spot.

Stallwalkin’ Dude (8-1): Paired lifetime best T-G figures winning bias-aided Tale of the Cat here August 12. Now 2-for-2 at the Spa and a winner of 3 of 9 at today’s trip. Nicely drawn, suited by dynamics and attracts Irad.

Ready for Rye (10-1): Freshened awaiting this, was second in lone dirt start here and has never finished off the board in five starts at 7F. Rallied very wide when third vs. two favorites here. Working purposefully, nicely posted and attracts JR.

Donnie’s Deceiver (30-1): On a bounce-rebound pattern, has an effort two back that’s fast enough to compete, sheds six pounds, picks up Franco, and is nicely positioned. Not the worst 30-1 chance we’ve ever seen.

A.P. Indian (3-1): Has won three straight, earning excellent PER and T-G ratings last out, owns tactical speed and kick and is positioned nicely to trip out. Knock is picking up six pounds as 124-pound highweight. Worthy favorite, however.

Marking (4-1): Suffered through wide trip when narrowly beaten by ‘Indian’ in the G3 Belmont Sprint, a key race producing two next-out winners. Enjoys 4-pound shift with favorite, draws favorably outside that rival, and gets positive switch to Rosario.

RACE 10 - Grade 1 SWORD DANCER | 1-1/2 MILES - INNER TURF

Grand Tito (8-1): Placed gamely behind Flintshire in G2 Bowling Green after being rated very stoutly throughout. Gets favorable two pound switch, Jose Ortiz sticks, is pole sitting, but likely to be pace-engaged by Roman Approval.

Money Multiplier (8-1): Has come to hand for Chad in last two starts, won recent Spa return impressively and drops six pounds. Loses Castellano but picks up Irad and has shown affinity for this course.

Roman Approval (20-1): Was no match for ‘Money’ when second last out, a promising course debut, but is winless in three tries at the trip and figures are lacking vs. this group.

Twilight Eclipse (10-1): Hard hitting old pro went well when third to favorite in Belmont finale after encountering trouble at the start. Likely to find good position but appears unlikely to handle the choice.

Inordinate (30-1): Apparently overmatched, is likely to be employed as a rabbit for Juddmonte’s champion.

Flintshire (1-5): Two-for-two at the Spa, may be world’s best turf marathoner. Showed his class to win Bowling Green off splits of 53 and 1:19.40. Pace likely to be more realistic here. Loom’s everyone’s P4 single.

Applicator (30-1): Both lifetime wins came over Gulfstream turf, his May 29 effort on a speed-favoring course. Little chance here.

RACE 11 - Grade 1 TRAVERS | 3YO | 1-1/4 MILES

Arrogate (10-1): Has been extremely impressive visually in all two-turn starts this year, beating his elders in each of three appearances. Has speed, kick, the pole, and picks up Mike Smith. Up in class, distance and weight scale (all tote 126).

American Freedom (6-1): Was an excellent second to Exaggerator on tiring sloppy track in the Haskell. Bejarano had his choice and sticks here. Has blinkers removed, a 31% Baffert tack.

My Man Sam (20-1): Appeared in need of the effort when narrowly beaten in Spa debut at 9 furlongs while also paced compromised following rough start. Blue Grass runnerup not without a puncher’s chance at big price.

Governor Malibu (12-1): Always runs well but always seems to find some trouble in the lane. Blinkers have helped, had beneficial local prep when pace compromised behind Laoban in Jim Dandy. Offers early line value.

Forever d’Oro (30-1): Made willing finish when third over speed-favoring Spa oval July 29, showing development, but remains eligible for preliminary allowances.

Anaximandrop (50-1): Fourth in W Virginia Derby, his stakes debut--so what’s he doing in here?

Exaggerator (3-1): Three of four lifetime Grade 1s have come on sloppy tracks but did win Saratoga Special in fast footing at 2. Haskell score was a lifetime best tour de force and he’s worked very well here since. Easily the most accomplished; horse to beat.

Destin (10-1): Got back to his lifetime best despite relatively dull finish when third in the Jim Dandy following nose defeat in the Belmont. Should benefit, added furlong suits, and Castellano seeking sixth Travers score. Value on early line.

Gift Box (12-1): was a very good second returning from layup when pace compromised and unable to beat speedy stablemate Connect on speed-kind oval. Loses Castellano to Destin but has money prospects at a square price.

Connect (4-1): Very promising winner of three straight and highly regarded by connections, but had everything his own way in the Curlin, hardly the case here. Underlay at early line odds.

Majesto (30-1): Hails from top Florida outfit and had zero chance while wide throughout the Curlin. Florida Derby runnerup adds blinkers and attracts hot-riding Santana. Potential price shot for bottom of super-exotics.

Creator (15-1): Belmont winner raced dully on cuppy Spa oval in Jim Dandy, his first start since winning the Belmont. Added distance helps as does the promise of solid pace. Will be running late beneath Irad and offers good value on early line.

Laoban (15-1): looms the speed of the speed but was killed by wide draw. Trainer says he doesn’t need lead but Guillot blows a lot of smoke. Underrated colt worked bullet since Jim Dandy, 2nd fastest of 43 peers here last week.

Gun Runner (10-1): had it rough on sloppy track in Haskell after winning the G3 Matt Winn by daylight at a mile returning from third-place Derby finish. Has worked thrice since but will need extreme luck from extreme outside slip.


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