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TONYS WINNING PICKS SANTA ANITA PARK SATURDAY JUNE 20,2015

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Santa Anita - 6/20        

 

Race 1-

1.Papa Turf

2.Oil

3.Hot Lightning

#4 PAPA TURF, a winner of just 1 of 17, looks pretty formidable in this spot. Strong Beyers are going in the right direction, and was a well clear runner up in an exact spot last out. Gelding has the ability to rate or send, which will work extremely well from this post. After burning money in three straight, #1 OIL ( Norton: "Hey Ralph, maybe the car needs a drop of oil."  Trixie: "That car wouldn't help if you dipped it in Texas." ) finally burst through the maiden ranks in a big way a month ago, and is an obvious threat if able to replicate the effort. #2 HOT LIGHTNING was claimed out of last by Belvoir, and the first thing he does is his Edward Scissorhands impersonation, making one big snip. Espinoza lands here ( rode 'Lightning in last, but that may have been a one shot deal ), and animal gets in 5 pounds lighter.

 

Race 2-

1.Hye I'm Jack

2.Inexcess Again

3.Player's Charm

Yeah, I know, the #1 HYE I'M JACK has lost ground in each and every start. Yeah, I know, he's immolated dinero in the last 3 to the tune of $2.27-1, but today's the day folks---TODAY'S THE DAY !!! Increasing dirt Beyers too powerful to ignore. #5 INEXCESS AGAIN is a firster from an unraced dam, with a sire that was just 1-5 going one turn on the dirt, with no siblings to report, but this is a 4 year old with a few decent works and trainer is 1-6 with older FTS'ers sprinting on the dirt ( 3 ITM ). #2 PLAYERS CHARM is definitely a 2-3 player based on the figs.

 

Race 3-

1.Flat Gone

2.Public Policy

3.Buckleberry Grey

#4 FLAT GONE was just a mediocre 4th at this level in last, but it's the start two back that has me intrigued. Against open 25K foes, he once again finished 4th, but the speed figure from that day was healthy enough, and THREE runners from that race won their next start and TWO ran 2nd in theirs ( with one of those placings occurring in an aforementioned winning race ). Furthermore ( and heretofore ), 19% Baltas instantly becomes a 31% winner when running his mid level dirt sprinters off 18-36 day breaks ( $2.20 ROI ). Switch from a 7 pound bug to California's best cements the decision. #3 PUBLIC POLICY displayed improved early hoof in first off the bench foray back in late May, and with a 50% local ITM rate, we'll keep in the mix. #6 BUCKLEBERRY GREY got crushed at the windows in his return off a TWO YEAR layoff, and never looked like a loser at any point in the race. The fact that he was "ridden out" past the line indicates that they saw a big effort and that a stretchout was imminent. Have to leave in, I guess.

 

Race 4-

1.Know Plans

2.Comanche Ruler

3.Gangnam Guy

#5 KNOW PLANS has rolled "tree trees" in all starts this year, but barn does well on the cutback and we'll give this one a slight edge. #1 COMANCHE RULER has been given a bit of a breather since the Turf Paradise outing, and after what happened, I'd need a breather too ( gelded ). Bullet work last week shows that all went well, and with good speed jock Maldonado signed on, connections will be looking for a wire job. #4 GANGNAM GUY has always been respected mutually, but with a 9:0-4-1 record, can now be officially constituted as a nibbler.  OFF TURF:8-1-10-3-6

 

Race 5-

1.Explicable

2.Cadet Roni

3.Moyo Honey

#5 EXPLICABLE was pretty game coming down the hill despite an awkward beginning, 6 weeks ago. Finished 3rd that day, and now is switched back to what I feel will eventually be his preferred surface. The barn has some nice experience with runners of this type ( turf to dirt, sprint, mdspwt, 28-56 days: 2 for 2 with the winners paying $6 and $18 ). #7 CADET RONI ( Half brother to Rice-a ? ) outran her odds with a clear 2nd in a strung out field last time out, but as the other two starts produced substantially low speed figures, we won't go hog wild with this gal, but will have to include. #4 MOYO HONEY was a sharp 2nd when the curtains went up on May 3rd, but keep in mind this is a June bred facing some older horses today, and the barn is just 0-13 with 2nd time dirt starters.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 DREAMOLOGIST is fron the Dick Mandella barn, and although he's 18% overall, he's just 3-30 with firsters sprinting on the dirt. Tab for later/

 

Race 6-

1.Molten Image

2.Midnight City

3.Not Enough Eddie

#7 MOLTEN IMAGE bled through Lasix most recently, and Art Sherman smartly gave the gelding 51 days off to recover. Fella had returned off a 2 year respite heading in the right direction with a pair of runner up finishes before things went awry and recent works are good. 'Chrome's conditioner is 5-15 when dropping dirt runners 50% or more ( $2.56 ROI ), as well. #2 MIDNIGHT CITY was up the track in first try against winners but on the upside, the Beyer actually increased, and now Desormeaux drops him down to a more palatable level. #1 NOT ENOUGH EDDIE plummets to a career low today for O'Neill who put this one through a sizzling gate move at Los Al 10 days ago ( 58 2/5 ). 

 

Race 7-

1.Anytime Anyplace

2.Zinvor

3.Hero Ten All

#10 ANYTIME ANYPLACE has recently been transferred to the barn of Patrick Gallagher, and over the last 1,826 days ( sometimes I tire of saying 5 years ), he's had but one newbie in his barn run in a turf route off a 14-28 day layoff, and that horse won at $5. Colt has excellent speed, an affinity for this course, a hot jock, and although there's a tremendous recent bullet on the page, that doesn't really impress us, as we know he's fast. What we're liking is the long one mile blowout just before that. The more I type, the more I like. #5 ZINVOR gave up the ghost rather readily in last, despite a glacial 26 flat middle fraction, but has been in the mix in every grass outing, and we'll leave in the mix today. #4 HERO TEN ALL has faced some extremely salty critters ( Dortmund twice, Firing Line, Papacoolpapacool, Bolo, etc. ) and recently scorched a 5 furlong work here with the dogs up. Watch out.  OFF TURF: 12-3-8-9-11  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 SOUL DRIVER is from the Jeff Mullins barn, and despite the fact that he's a steady 17% over the last 5 years, he's just 2 for 26 with turf routers returning between 60 & 120 days.

 

Race 8-

1.Stellar Wind

2.Conquest Curlgirl

3.Fantastic Style

Ugh. I loathe playing horses exiting big name races such as the Kentucky Derby, Breeders' Cup, and Kentucky Oaks, as they're always overbet. However, it's just too damn hard to get past the #9 STELLAR WIND here. Big figs, 2 for 2 at Santa Anita, and a bullet in the holster make this gal as strong as all getout. #7 CONQUEST CURGIRL is thrown into the deep end of the YMCA swimming pool today after wiring maidens a month and a half ago, but there are things in her corner. The number earned in last was vastly improved from the debut, the 379 Tomlinson at the distance say to me that there's room for even more of an upturn from that, and 4 runners from that affair returned to run 4:2-1-1 in their collective next outings. Interesting alternative to the chalk. #10 FANTASTIC STYLE has done very little wrong for Baffert in her 5 sprints ( increasing in distance with each and every outing ) and now stretches out to a 2 turn route for the first time, and we all know the conditioners' prowess with that move.

 

Race 9-

1.Unusually

2.Over Par

3.Los Gatos

#11 UNUSUALLY ( in the starting gate to the right of his half brother ) was making a strong bid to the leader mid stretch in last, when Van Dyke got some butterfingers as the whip went flying late. For all intents and purposes, he was gonna get beat anyway, and the owners punish Drayden by giving him the boot, and take out their frustrations on the horse by going snip-snip. Recent work was decent enough, and Tyler Baze is now the 4th different pilot in as many races. Distorted humor being the dam sire says that today's stretchout shouldn't be an issue. #2 OVER PAR ( which Tiger Woods was10 of on Friday ! ), your likely favorite due to the dropdown, will probably be a bit closer to the pace today with the improved post, and figures right there. #8 LOS GATOS rounds out the tri.  OFF TURF: 9-1-2-11-7

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  • CZUBAKOWSKI, TERRY
    CZUBAKOWSKI, TERRY Saturday, 20 June 2015

    YOU ARE ONE HARD WORKING SON OF A BUCK,THANKS FOR ALL YOU DO

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