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Subscribe to this list via RSS Blog posts tagged in Betting with Ellis Starr

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, May 27

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Red Bank Stakes - Race #9 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:52 PM ET

Synchrony is a four year old who changed trainers between April of 2016 and his comeback in February. His first start back was on dirt and he tired after rallying to third, but when moved to grass for the first time next out on March 20 he improved by a country mile to win in spite of traffic trouble (taken up) and in spite of going six paths wide at the quarter pole. Following that up Synchrony rallied from 10th of 12 to get second, beaten just a half-length at the end. He's still improving and can post the mild upset, opening at 5 to 1. All Included opens as the 9 to 5 favorite based on winning a similar grade 3 stakes in his most recent start and at this mile turf trip. He's earned over a half-million dollars and should continue in top form but may be too low odds for a win bet. Irish Spirit finished fourth in the same race Synchrony finished second in, just a head and nose behind that one. With two of his three career wins on turf having come on the Monmouth turf course and any improvement he could make up the 3/4 of a length he was beaten last out and win. Rose Brier won a similar Grade 3 stakes on the turf in November but has run poorly in two since, including when seventh in the race common to Synchrony and Irish Spirit. However, with Paco Lopez getting on and having won this race last year, he must be considered for wagers we make involving this race.

Bet Synchrony to win ad odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box and trifecta box consisting of Synchrony, All Included, Irish Spirit and Rose Brier

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, March 4

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Herecomesthebride Stakes-  Race #4 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 1:30 PM ET

The race is very playable because the likely favorite, Coasted, is VULNERABLE. Similar to Eagle last week at Fair Grounds (where we cashed in on $12 winner Honorable Duty), Coasted returns from four months off going two turns against horses with good recent two turn form. She needed a sprint prep last year in her debut before winning around two turns and her trainer is winless in the past two years with horses coming back from this kind of layoff. 

We therefore hone in on two strong contenders, Dream Dancing (morning line 9 to 2) and India Mantuana (morning line 7 to 2). Dream Dancing ran a career best race (92 Equibase figure) in her most recent start on 1/28 at the distance on the course and with Leparoux up for the first time on the filly on turf, riding back here. Dream Dancing made a big move from seventh on the turn to be in front by a head at the eighth pole then widened nicely and making her second start off the layoff should run even better. India Mantuana is the one Dream Dancing has to run down to win. She was privately purchased since her last start on 1/21, a wire-to-wire win over the course, now finding herself in the top Chad Brown barn with Jose Ortiz riding for the first time. With wins in three of her last four turf races and a field high 96 last race figure to repeat or improve upon, she could be tough to catch, and beat. 

Bet Dream Dancing and India Mantuana to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Dream Dancing and India Mantuana

Play a daily double consisting of Dream Dancing and India Mantuana in race 4 and Realm, Bird Song, Tale of S'avall and Greenpointcrusader

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Key Bets & Races for Monday, December 26

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San Simeon Stakes - Race #6 at Santa Anita – Post Time 2:31 PM PT, 5:31 ET

He Will and Holy Lute are winners at the trip and both are drawn well with advantageous outside posts. He Will gets slight preference as he opens at 6/1. He won at the trip in his only try in May and on the cut back from two turns to one (off a pair of wins) gives him a big amount of late energy so he should be rolling past the field late. That's exactly what Holy Lute did in September when winning the Eddie D Stakes down the hill at 10/1. He was overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint but back where proven has every right to resume his winning ways. 

Betty's Bambino won 4 in a row when last seen 22 months ago, all downhill sprints, and has been working well. Cape Wolfe may go to post near his 15/1 starting odds and is very playable as he finished 2nd in last year's San Simeon at 9/2. Ohio got crowded badly in the stretch in the Eddie D when last seen, well regarded at 7/2. We can ignore that race and so he's got a fine shot. As for exotic bets like the exacta and trifecta, in a deep field in which a decent exacta ticket may be worth the risk, also consider Stormy Liberal, Acceptance and Richard's Boy for 2nd and 3rd. 

Bet He Will and Holy Lute to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, December 3

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Go for Wand Handicap - Race #8 at Aqueduct –Post Time 3:43 PM ET

High Ridge Road gets a good outside post for this one turn mile trip as she cuts back from two turns. She won right before that in a one turn mile race, bringing her career record at the trip to a perfect three-for-tree. Two of those three wins came on the trainer change to Rice, who is sizzling hot so far at the meeting (8 for 31) and with the 2nd best last race Equibase Figure (104) in the field, High Ridge Road gets top billing. Bar of Gold is likely to be the heavy favorite coming off an 18 length win. Even though the win came in a one turn route like this one, it came against statebreds and it came on a sloppy track, so I feel the 117 Equibase figure is inflated. Her best before that was a solid 102 and Rosario rides back so she can't be discounted as a contender for exactas and pick 3's but there are others here offering better value for win bets. Highway Star, like Bar of Gold, is a NY bred who just won against her own kind and who is facing open company. Her won over the track last month at 7 furlongs was her best effort yet and she's four-for-four around one turn on dirt so she rounds out a trio that stands out against the other four entrants. 

Bet High Ridge Road to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more. Consider a second win bet, on Highway Star, at 5 to 2 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of High Ridge Road, Bar of Gold and Highway Star.

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, November 26

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My Charmer Handicap - Race #5 at Gulfstream Park West – Post Time 2 PM ET

Secret Someone should really appreciate the drop to grade 3 stakes. She ran poorly (9th) in a grade 1 last time out and as poorly (8th) in a grade 1 two before that. However, she won the Ladies' Turf Stakes at Kentucky Downs in between those two and won the Lady Canterbury Stakes in June, both wins coming off the trainer change to Stidham. McCarthy comes in from Maryland to ride and at 8/1 this gal may be tough to beat and easy to bet. Strike Charmer is the other main win contender, as her effort last out on soft turf can be ignored, as can her grade 1 try prior to that. Three back she won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa and Junior Alvarado, up for that win, is in from New York to ride. 

Bet Secret Someone to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more

Play an exacta consisting of Secret Someone and Strike Charmer over Secret Someone, Strike Charmer, Dad's Princess, Stormy Victoria, Sea Coast and Isabella Sings.

Hits: 1233
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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, November 19

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A quick recap on last week's Key Bets! If you followed along, we cashed on several recommended exactas (3 of 4) with $1 exactas payouts of $68, $106, and $30! We also had a $21 winner and a $17 place price. Be sure to follow along this week!


Notebook Stakes - Race #5 at Aqueduct – Post Time 2:17 PM ET

Bourbon Empire was highly impressive in his career debut 24 days ago, showing maturity to rally from 5th of 10 early and pulling off to win by 4 lengths at the end. Junior Alvarado rides back and with a best of 41 half-mile workout as his most recent showing he's in great form, and with lots of improving to do in his 2nd career start, Bourbon Empire should be tough to beat. "IF" he draws into the race, Breeze Burner is worth a win, win/place or win/place/show bet because although he only won a 25K maiden claimer at Delaware Park in his career debut in September, it caught the attention of sharp owner Michael Dubb and top trainer Rudy Rodriguez, so much so he was privately purchased and entered in this stakes for NY Breds only off that "open" (not restricted) maiden claiming win.

Bet Bourbon Empire to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Consider additional win bet (or win/place or win/place/show) on Breeze Burner at odds of 6 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta consisting of Bourbon Empire over ALL

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, November 12

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Red Smith Handicap - Race #7 at Aqueduct –Post Time 3:17 PM ET

Smooth Daddy opens at 15/1 odds but could as easily be as low odds as many of other contenders based on the company he's faced, and finished 2nd to, in 3 of his last 4 races including Grade 1 stakes winners Twilight Eclipse and Ironicus. Smooth Daddy has great tactical speed and should be first or 2nd from the start and the 108 Equibase Figure effort put forth in his runner-up finish in may in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy could be good enough to post the upset here. Messi, Bigger Picture and Wake Forest are all contenders to win as well but as for Wake Forest,with a 1 for 6 record in the U.S., he's a bad win bet opening at 8/5 odds. Messi won the Grade 2 Sky Classic one before last when Prado rode him for the first time and Prado gets back on after a one race absence so he could be playable to win as well. Bigger Picture has three wins and a nose defeat since the Maker claim last November and fits perfectly at the level. Arties Silver Mine just ran the best race of his career and ships in from Woodbine, picking up Irad Ortiz, Jr. so is another that could help us profit here.

Bet Smooth Daddy to win and place at 3 to 1 or more.

Consider additional win bet (or win/place bets) on Messi, Bigger Picture and Arties Silver Mine.

Play an exacta consisting of Smooth Daddy, Messi, Bigger Picture, Wake Forest and Arties Silver Mine over Smooth Daddy, Messi, Bigger Picture, Wake Forest, Arties Silver Mine, I'll Call, Up With the Birds and Danish Dynaformer.

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Key Bets & Races for October 21/22

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Friday, October 21

Pin Oak Valley View Stakes - Race #9 at Keeneland– Approx. Post 5:30 PM ET

Azaelia may be a standout in this year's Valley View Stakes on class alone. In her last start, Azaelia just finished 4th of 16 in the French Oaks with both the winner and runner-up coming back to win off those efforts. She finished 2nd in a Group 3 stakes before that, the class of a group 3 in Europe superior to the class of a North American Grade 3 stakes like this one. Geroux takes the call and repeating any of her last two efforts in France should be good enough to win even though her North American competition is very talented. My Impression won like a good thing in the Commonwealth Oaks last month, a grade 3 stakes just like this one. She's now 4 for 7 in her career and Jose Ortiz has been aboard for 3 of her 4 career wins. The 103 Equibase Figure earned in the Oaks is best among those that have run in North America, but nowhere near the 121 figure equivalent Azaelia having earned in the French Oaks. Sassy Little Lila gets a longshot look to win and a big look to be part of the exacta or trifecta if she gets in from the also-eligible list as she won easily by 5 lengths at Saratoga in her most recent start and has shown improvement since debuting in June. The 99 figure was solid and she was flattered when the 3rd finisher won her next start. Linda may not be disadvantaged by her outside post as she can drop back early to save ground then come around the field as she did in her most recent start when rallying from 7th to win for her 2nd victory in a row, both on grass. Her last race 99 figure is on par with most of the main contenders as it is, but like many in here she still has improving to do as a 3 year old. Cheekaboo comes from dead last much of the time, such as last month when 12th with a quarter mile to go and beaten 2 lengths at the end. She won a stakes on Turf in May and the Grade 2 Honeymoon Stakes in June so on occasion she has demonstrated the kind of ability that can win this race. As such, she rounds out a quintet of contenders. Tin Type Gal, Triple Chelsea and Quidura can be considered contenders for second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets played.

Bet Late Spring to win at odds of 3 to 2 or higher. Consider a second, but smaller, win bet on My Impression at 5/2 or higher. Small ($5 or less) win bets can be made on Sassy Little Lila, Linda and Cheekaboo at 4 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta consisting of Azaelia and My Impression over Azaelia, My Impression, Sassy Little Lila, Linda, Cheekaboo, Tin Type Gal, Triple Chelsea and Quidura.

Play an exacta box consisting of Azaelia, My Impression and Sassy Little Lila.

Play an trifecta consisting of Azaelia and My Impression over Azaelia, My Impression, Sassy Little Lila, Linda, Cheekaboo, Tin Type Gal, Triple Chelsea and Quidura over Azaelia, My Impression, Sassy Little Lila, Linda, Cheekaboo, Tin Type Gal, Triple Chelsea and Quidura.

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Betting with Ellis Starr - October 8, 2016

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Kelso Handicap - Race #5 at Belmont – Approximate Post Time 2:28 PM ET

Point Piper ships across the country from California by way of Washington State, coming off a stirring 5 length win in the Longacres Mile. He earned a career best 119 Equibase figure in that race then was flattered when the runner-up won a stakes in Pennsylvania. Mario Gutierrez comes in from California to ride for top trainer Hollendorfer and with the horse having earned 4 of his 5 career wins at a mile he should run big in this one-turn mile race. Tommy Macho also won his last start, at a mile, back in February. Rested since then, if he picks up where he left off with a 115 Equibase figure effort he and Point Piper should come together at the wire. Tamarkuz finished 2nd in the Grade 1 Forego at 7 furlongs in his most recent start, to multiple grade 1 stakes winner A. P. Indian, who is running on Friday at Keeneland hoping to punch his ticket to the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Meanwhile, Tamarkuz can improve off best race since coming to the U.S. back in June, 2015, and with Smith riding him back off a 116 figure effort he rounds out a trio that stands out by a mile over the other four entrants in this race.

Bet Point Piper to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher. Make a smaller win bet on Tommy Macho at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta and trifecta box consisting of Point Piper, Tommy Macho and Tamarkuz.

Hits: 990
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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, October 1 including Santa Anita Pick 4

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Rodeo Drive Stakes - Race #8 at Santa Anita–Approx. Post Time 4:00 PM PT, 7 PM ET

Avenge is a rapidly improving four year old coming off a pair of wins on turf and peaking at the right time. She just won the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes, the same race last year's Rodeo Drive runner-up (Elektrum) won and she gets Flavien Prat, who has ridden Avenge to four of her five career wins. Considering Avenge has the ability to lead early or sit just off the pacesetter, in this full field that means she should avoid traffic issues many of the others may encounter and that could be the ticket to earning her second graded stakes win in a row. Frenzified won 4 of 11 in her native Great Britain before making her U.S. debut in June. Feeling the effects of having been away from the races for seven months, she finished third in that comeback effort, but two races later she won the CTT & TOC Handicap rather easily, earning a 112 figure that is on par with the 111 and 113 figures that the 2012 and 2014 winners of this race earned and right there with the 113 and 108 figures Avenge earned in her last two starts. Like Avenge, Frenzified can also run close to the front, and from a ground saving inside post she should be in the thick of the action from start to finish. Generosidade posted the 71 to 1 upset this past March when beating males in the San Luis Rey Stakes on this turf course then finished second against males again in the San Juan Capistrano. Winless in three races since, Generosidade may be turning the corner back to top form following a fast closing second behind Frenzified. Last year, Elektrum won the John C. Mabee as a four year old shortly after an allowance level win then finished second in the 2015 Rodeo Drive following that win but is winless in six races since then. On the other hand, Elektrum was narrowly beaten in her two most recent starts, including when third behind Avenge in the Mabee so it would be foolish to leave out Elektrum as a contender when only a half-length short of victory in her most recent race. Decked Out has run nine times so far in 2016, all against three-year-olds. Her only win of the year came in a grade 3 stakes in April but her most recent effort, in the Del Mar Oaks, put her on the radar as a contender in the Rodeo Drive. In the Oaks Decked Out rallied from last of 10 and even though fifth and five paths wide into the stretch she missed catching the winner by a head on the wire. If I went deeper in my contender list, Zipessa, a grade 3 winner one before last, would be next.

Bet Avenge to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. Consider win bets, of smaller amounts, on Frenzified at odds of 7 to 2 or higher and on Generosidade at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Avenge, Frenzified, Generosidade, Decked Out, Elektrum and Zipessa.

Play an exacta consisting of Avenge over Frenzified, Generosidade, Decked Out, Elektrum and Zipessa and also play the reverse of that exacta in case Avenge finishes second.

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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, September 24

Featuring the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx

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Commonwealth Oaks - Race #5 at Laurel– Approximate Post Time 3:10 PM ET

Broken Bridle won very nicely one before last, on the Laurel turf and with Carrasco in the saddle. Before that she had a lot of trouble and was moved up from third to second via a disqualification and after that she had even more trouble as the favorite and finished last, at Parx. Carrasco gets back on and she moves back to Laurel, two key elements to a repeat of that August 6 effort that can help her post the upset win. Stella Rose opens at 5 to 2 off a strong win at Saratoga, but the win came at the same first allowance condition Broken Bridle won at so she's no lock. Noble Beauty rallied from eighth to second (beaten a nose) in the last eighth of a mile in the Pucker Up Stakes last month then was moved up to first after the winner was disqualified. The original winner came back to win again, proving the race productive, so she should run well again. Pricedtoperfection, Princess Princess, It's The Truth and Involuntary can complete the exacta as well.

Bet Broken Bridle to win and place at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Broken Bridle, Stella Rose and Noble Beauty.

Play an exacta consisting of Broken Bridle, Stella Rose and Noble Beauty over Broken Bridle, Stella Rose, Noble Beauty Pricedtoperfection, Princess Princess, It's The Truth and Involuntary.

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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, September 17

Featuring Woodbine Pick 3 and Charles Town Pick 4

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Northern Dancer Stakes - Race #10 at Woodbine – Approximate Post Time 5:34 PM ET

In a really interesting edition of the Northern Dancer Stakes, there's a live longshot in Majeed and potentially two favorites that are a bit vulnerable in Wake Forest (5/2 morning line) and World Approval (2/1 morning line). The reason the two morning line choices are labeled "vulnerable" rather than "legitimate" is NEITHER has won at this 12 furlong trip, Wake Forest having finished second in his only try (in April) and World Approval running a mile and one-half for the very first time. On the other hand, Big Blue Kitten has won twice at the trip and also finished second in last year's Canadian International here at Woodbine. The Pizza Man has run poorly in three of his last four aces, but in the ONLY one of the four that was this distance, he missed by three noses on the wire in a race he could just as easily have won with a bit of luck after going five wide on the last turn. Then there's the lone European invader, Majeed, trained by exceptional trainer David Simcock, with world class jockey Jamie Spencer aboard and getting Lasix for the first time off a nose defeat at 1 7/16 miles last month.

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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, September 10

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Laurel Futurity - Race #5 at Laurel Park – Approximate Post Time 3:10 PM ET

Greatbullsoffire and Hembree stick out here and although likely to be the top two betting choices offer value on daily double and particularly on pick 3 tickets. Greatbullsoffire won his career debut in July, a turf sprint just like this one, then moved to dirt and ran even better, with a field high and career best 91 Equibase figure. He doesn't need the lead to win in a race in which two or three of the others do and he's already the only stakes winner in the field. Hembree closed from seventh to win by a neck in his debut last month, in a turf sprint. That is no easy task, and certainly not with the quality of maiden fields at Saratoga. With an 89 Equibase figure to improve upon he certainly could improve more than Greatbullsoffire can improve and win his 2nd in a row, earning a stakes win just like Greatbullsoffire did in his most recent race.

If either Greatbullsoffire or Hembree go off at 2 to 1 or more bet them to win.

Play an exacta box between Greatbullsoffire and Hembree.

Play a Daily Double consisting of Greatbullsoffire and Hembree in this race with Zero Zee and Fly in race 6.

Play a pick 3 using Greatbullsoffire and Hembree in this race with Zero Zee and Fly in race 6 and using ALL EIGHT horses in race 8. The cost of this wager at the $0.50 minimum is just $16.

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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, September 3

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Saranac Stakes - Race #5 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 2:45 PM ET

We'll start with an early KEY BETTING race as even though this year's Saranac only drew seven, EVERY horse has a shot and as such the probability of Camelot Kitten (the 9/5 starting favorite) actually has doesn't match up with his odds. The value in the race, and not just because of high odds, is Copingaway, who opens at 15/1. He won on this inner turf course 15 days ago at 26 to 1 but it wasn't a fluke as he had finished close when 3rd and 2nd in his previous two starts. The 111 Equibase Speed Figure Copingaway earned in that 8/19 win is as good as the 110 figure favorite Camelot Kitten earned winning the similar Pennine Ridge Stakes in June at Belmont and therefore if Copingaway repeats or bettors that effort he can post the upset. Santana was aboard for both recent "A" effort at the meeting and rides back, more reasons to back this colt. Call Provision may ale be a win bet "if" his 6 to 1 starting odds, or close to it, holds up. From the barn of leading trainer Brown, Call Provision won over the course at 1 3/16 miles last month so this 1 1/8 mile trip should be no problem and the only time he ran in a stakes race at this distance, he missed by inches to Camelot Kitten.

Bet Copingaway to win or to win and place at odds of 3 to 1 or higher. Consider a win bet on Call Provision as well, at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta consisting of Copingaway over ALL and then play the opposite exacta of ALL over Copingaway.
(If all seven horses run, the cost of both bets at the $1 minimum is just $12 and may be well worth the investment)

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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, August 6

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Test Stakes - Race #8 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 5:02 PM ET

 

A fairly strong field of eight lines up for this year's Grade 1 Test Stakes, a big race for three year old fillies at seven furlongs. Off the Tracks will be bet heavily off her win last month in the Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes, which she won leading from start to finish. However, the 97 Equibase Figure earned was sub-par for a grade 1 race and I think she, as well as runner-up Lewis Bay, both have chances to finish second here but can be beaten for the win. Kareena and Lightstream share the bulk of the probability to win. Lightstream beat Kareena handily in their respective debuts in March, at this 7 furlong trip, with the winner earning a true Grade 1 Equibase figure (116) and the runner-up getting a 111 figure. Lightstream won the Beaumont Stakes (also at 7 furlongs) in her next start before winning another stakes on turf, again at 7 furlongs. When asked to go a mile and one-sixteenth in the Mother Goose, she ran evenly the last eighth of a mile when third, but cutting back to seven furlongs appears to be the right move to get Lightstream home in the Test and she's the better win bet of the two fillies, opening at 8/1. Kareena won about as easily as a horse can win in her 2nd start then won the Jersey Girl Stakes in June with a 106 figure, showing maturity in coming from off the pace for the 1st time. Castellano takes over for the red hot McLaughlin barn (7 for 17 at Saratoga through Thursday) and Kareena has every right to get first run on likely pacesetters Kinsley Kisses (adding blinkers) and Paola Queen (forced to go from the rail) and could hold Lightstream safe to the wire.

Bet Lightstream 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Lightstream and Kareena.

Play an exacta of Lightstream and Kareena over Lightstream, Kareena, Lewis Bay and Off the Tracks.

Play a trifecta of Lightstream and Kareena over Lightstream, Kareena, Lewis Bay and Off the Tracks over Lightstream, Kareena, Lewis Bay and Off the Tracks.

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