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Roy Steele - www.Horsewhispererusa.com - gives his best bet of the Four Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita today.

Race 8 is the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Go back to ARC day first weekend in October and Aidan Obrien Was placed 1,2,3. at Chantilly. When asked about his plans for the Breeders he Replied "Same Again". Never thought much of it till the PP's came out and low and behold the Obrien's have three excellent horses entered in the above race.

Two are from the Cooolmore stable and INTRICATELY 6/1 is trained by son Joseph. Joseph is well versed with Santa Anita becoming the youngest jock to ride a winner in the Breedeers Cup their 4 years ago. Weight has caught up with him and now has an established string of horses under both codes in training in Ireland. Could this be a slam dunk for Ireland.


Rolly Poly - 4/1: a War Front filly is the choice of Ryan Moore who has won twice on her. Comes off a nose defeat in the Cheveley Park Stakes a top G1 2yo race at Newmarket. Gets first time lasix which in a filly is huge.

Intricatley - 6/1: Beat HYDRANGEA by a nose in her last a G1 over 7f. also gets First TIme Lasix. Young Joseph looking to make history.

Hydrangea - 6/1: Will take advantage of the rail and make the pace First time lasix Heffernan has won her and she is a daughter of super sire Galileo will relish a test of stamina.

Recommend Win on Top selection then box for Ex and Tri.

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Roy Steele International Handicapper .... Previews the Breeders' 'up races on day One Friday, Oct. 30th. 

Weather is going to be the big issue this weekend although the forecast looks good for Keeneland which is situated in Lexington Northern Kentucky.

Having been a member of the Press Corps for a number of years certainly helps when  handicapping the 4 CUP races worth $5 million buckeroos.

 It all starts in Race 6 POST TIME 3.30 est.

One thing is certain lots of value on offer in the big 14 horse fields.

The Europeans have a strong hand and the weather wont be a problem with most of them as they experience soft conditions either racing or on the gallops in their respective training areas. 

 Lexington Airport is adjacent to the track so all shippers will take advantage of air travel direct to Lexington.

Keeneland is a tight course especially the turf track Jocks will be fighting for a good position on the final bend and blast for home off the bend. Keeneland track is now a Dirt surface on the Main Track with an inside turf course.

 

I will be posting three selections for each race with an outsider to use in the superfecta's.

Recommend Win on top selection then box for Ex and Tri. with all three selections. Also use for the Pick 4's etc.

I will be tweeting throughout the weekend. @HorsewhisperU.

 

This is the event I was member of the Eclipse award winning team for Internet Coverage.... "Let’s Hit The Windows".

                          .....................

Keeneland     Friday    Oct 30th   Eastern Time Zone

 

Race 6  Mile Turf 2yo C&G BCJuv. Turf. G1

 

# 14 Hit A Bomb 9/2 ..... Nice War Front colt trained by Aidan O'Brien (Not owned by Coolmore). Two runs in Ireland prepped in last one for this on a poly surface gets lasix for the first time (They are not allowed to race with Lasix in Europe). Ryan Moore has the call he knows Keeneland really well and could have a great meet.

# 8 Airoforce 4/1 ..... Mark Casse (30% strike rate at the track this year) who is champion trainer at Woodbine Canada trains this guy in Kentucky. Bit of a talking horse for the barn  ... owned by long-time supporter of Casse Oil magnate John Oxley. Cruised to victory in his only two races. Julian Leparoux French jock but American based gets the leg up he is referred to as Master of The Turf in these parts.

# 12 Camelot Kitten 12/1 ..... Cant mention Keeneland without owner Ken Ramsey getting a honourable mention. Leading owner here since racing was invented. nice colt out of Ramsey’s sire Kitten's Joy. Trained by Chad Brown who is flying this year. Former Harness assistant trainer having a breakout year in Thoroughbred discipline.

 

Honourable Mention    # 13 Cymric 7/2.

                  ...........................

Race 7   3yo and up BCDirt Mile G1

 

# 3 Liams Map 1/1 ..... This is a mouth-watering affair and this guy is at the top of his game only beaten twice and never out the first two lifetime. Coming off a hands and heels win in the Woodward. Has an excellent draw and will go to the front and its catch me if you can.

# 5 Lea 8/1 ..... Had this event in his plans all year after returning from Dubai with some nice prize money finishing third in the World Cup. Does have over $2million in the bank and has been doing some blistering works his last one here on the 26th.

# 2 Bradester 10/1 ..... Trainer Irishman Keeneland based Kennelly is no stranger to the big occasions Winning in the Desert with KELLY'S LANDING who is still a lead pony in the morning for him. Superb works leading upto this and will be pushing the principles on the pace. Don’t discount.

 

Honourable Mention    # 9 Tapiture 10/1

                   ............................

Race 8    Mile Turf  BC Juv G1 2yo fillies

 

# 3 Alice Springs 6/1 ..... All the boxes are ticked for this exceptional gal. Daughter of outstanding middle distance sire Galileo. O'Brien trained, Coolmore owned. Moore is in the irons and was when she won the Tattersalls Million Trophy at Newmarket Oct 3. Will be eased to the front and kick on off the bend. Gets lasix for the first time which is huge in a filly.

# 12 Gliding By 30/1 ..... Watched this gal win handsomely at Woodbine on her debut .... Now with Mott and gets lasix for the first time... will be taking a piece of that 30/1.

# 14 Last Waltz 20/1 ..... Irish bred and trained filly up till last month now with Chad Brown. Does get lasix shades and Castellano all positive.

 

Honourable Mention  # 9 Tapiture 10/1

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Race 9   1 1/8th Mile Dirt   BC Distaff Fillies and Mares

 

# 1 I'am A Chatterbox 8/1 ..... UNTAPABLE is a non-runner so the make-up of the race changes a little. This gal a 3yo is getting weight for age and has the rail .... can make the pace come off the pace never been out the frame and has over a million in the bank pretty impressive keeps regular jock Geroux and is the one to beat for me.

# 15 Peace and War 30/1 ..... Gets in due to UNTAPABLE scratching.  Graham Motion will have had this gal ready for such a situation plus she likes  cut in the turf (Yielding). Will be primed to come off the pace knows her rivals well and may get a jock change.

# 12 Got Lucky 6/1 ..... Pletcher let this guy run over the track in early Oct. in the SPINSTER which she dually won does have an electric turn of foot and her daddy is AP INDY.

 

Honourable Mention  # 10 Yahilwa 50/1.

                   .........................................

There is a full supporting card 10 Races in total with an early POST TIME  of 12.30 am for the first race.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL ....... WAGER AT WWW.123BET.COM 

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Key Breeders' Cup Races & Bets – Friday, October 30 and Saturday, October 31

 

Race 8 Friday 10/30/15 -  Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Approximate Post Time 4:50 PM ET 

 

Illuminate just finished 2nd in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes last month  in England and appears to have a class edge here as well as may be faster, her efforts in Europe earning the equivalent of 109-110 Equibase Figures that tower over most of these. Frankie Dettori rode her in her last effort and takes the call so having a jockey familiar with the horse is another plus. Mirage won in her career debut in Ireland then was sold at auction for upwards of a half-million dollars. In  her U.S. debut 3 weeks ago she was making a move from 9th and was passing the top two in the stretch when she got cut off, nearly falling, then recovering to finish 3rd. She opens at 30/1 odds that are impossible to pass up for any and all wagers we make involving this race. Alice Springs finished 4th, 3/4 of a length behind Illuminate last month then won a stakes with a $450K and could be a strong factor in the run to the wire. Harmonize and Sapphire Kitten are the best of the local contingent and ran well in a stakes at Keeneland earlier this month. 

 

Bet Illuminate to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Also bet Mirage to win and place at odds of 5 to 1 or more. 

 

Play an exacta box combining Illuminate, Mirage, Alice Springs, Harmonize and Sapphire Kitten. 

 

Race 9 Friday 10/30/15 – Breeders' Cup Distaff – Approximate Post Time 5:35 PM ET

 

Note: Untapable has been scratched. 

 

Got Lucky won the opening weekend Spinster Stakes at Keeneland at the distance and in two of her last three races earned 115 Equibase Figures that make her the one to beat in this year's Distaff. In spite of how I feel about Got Lucky, Frivolous is a horse we should consider at least a small bet on to win (or win/place, or win/place/show), opening at 30/1 odds. She likes this 9 furlong trip, having posted the 30/1 upset in June in the Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs and has won at Keeneland. Sheer Drama has faced Frivolous three times, beating her twice and losing to her once. She also beat Got Lucky the only time they met and with her two best efforts in 2015 earning 115 figures she has to be respected. Wedding Toast is the slight 4/1 favorite on the morning line and has proven competitive in top company over and over. She will need to improve off a career best 111 last race figure but that is a possibility. 

 

Bet Got Lucky to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Also make a win/place bet on  Frivolous at odds of 4 to 1 or more. 

 

Play an exacta box combining Got Lucky, Frivolous, Sheer Drama, Wedding Toast and Yahilwa (a neck behind Got Lucky in the Spinster earlier this month) 

 

Consider a $0.50 Trifecta box combining the same five horses. 

 

Special Double: There is a special "daily double" available in this year's Distaff, going to tomorrow's Breeders' Cup Classic. In this special double, use Got Lucky, Frivolous, Sheer Drama, Wedding Toast and Yahilwa in the Distaff and in the Classic use Effinex, Beholder, Tonalist, Gleneagles and Honor Code. 

 

Race4 Saturday 10/31/15  – Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint – Approximate Post Time 12:45 PM ET 

 

Counting on a pace scenario wherein Lady Shipman, Joe Franklin and Stacked Deck all may want the early lead at any cost, all three horses trained by Wesley Ward can be in the picture at the end. Green Mask, The Great War and Undrafted are those three, all proven in top company in turf sprints and all with good closing kicks. Green Mask, who lost by a half-length when 4th in a blanket finish last month, a race from which the third finisher came back to win a grade 2 turf sprint stakes,opens at  the highest odds of the trio. The Great War was 3rd, beaten a head and nose in that grade 2 stakes, while Undrafted cuts back from a mile off a fine runner-up finish and won the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes in England this summer so has credentials to win as well. 

 

Bet Green Mask to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more. Consider win bets on the other two at 4 to 1 or higher as well. 

 

Plan an exacta box combining Green Mask, The Great War and Undrafted. 

 

Consider an exacta of Green Mask, The Great War and Undrafted over ALL. 

 

Race 11 Saturday 10/31/15  – Breeders' Cup Classic – Approximate Post Time 5:35 PM ET

 

(Modified after scratch of Beholder) 

 

Why I am not picking American Pharoah to win theClassic - American Pharoah is undoubtedly the best of his crop, and one of the best three-year-olds to come along in a very long time. However, he has never faced older horses as he is doing in the Classic and although a number of three-year-olds have won the Classic, the best of those have at least faced if not beaten older foes before their Classic try. Additionally, the best older horses in the classic have run faster than American Pharoah (112, 112 and 110 last three Equibase figures), with Tonalist (123, 123 and 122 recently), Honor Code (126 and 122 in victory this spring and summer) and Effinex (122 and 122 in his best efforts) all 10 or more points superior to American Pharoah. Even Smooth Roller (115 recently) has run faster. Not only has American Pharoah not exceeded a 112 figure this year, neither too has Keen Ice or Frosted, nor have the latter pair faced older horses until now. For those reasons I don't consider those three year olds as win contenders in this year's Classic. 

 

Effinex will be my top choice to win this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, and not just because I'm known as a contrarian. He has run very well at the distance of one mile and on quarter, winning the Suburban Handicap in July with a 122 figure and beating Tonalist in the process, with Tonalist opening at 6 to 1 odds while Effinex opens at 30 to 1. Getting a jockey change to a Hall-of-Fame rider in Mike Smith, Effinex should be racing in fourth or fifth in the early stages, perhaps closer to the pace than Tonalist and definitely closer than Honor Code, so he may have first run on the pacesetters over the other closers and has a legitimate shot to post the upset. Tonalist gets the ground saving rail for the Classic and last month won Jockey Club Gold Cup by nearly five lengths, earning a 123 figure for the second race in a row, certainly good enough to win here if repeated. Honor Code may be as good as Tonalist, Effinex and Beholder but there may not be the hot early pace benefiting Honor Codeas it did in his big wins this year. Gleneagles hasn't raced on dirt or run 10 furlongs in his career but he won three important Group 1 races in a row this spring with the equivalent of 125, 121 and 125 Equibase figures. He is bred to handle dirt and run this far and opening at 20 to 1 his chances can't be discounted. 

 

With the scratch of Beholder, AmericanPharoah may get an easy lead and although I don't think he can win, as I still want to cash some bets if he runs well, I'm using him on some of the exotic wager tickets below. 

 

Bet Effinex to win and place at odds of 7 to 2 or higher. Bet Tonalist to win at odds of 4 to 1. Make a small win and place bet on Gleneagles at odds of 6 to 1 or more. 

 

Play an exacta box combining Effinex, Tonalist, Honor Code and Gleneagles. Play another exacta box combining Effinex and AmericanPharoah and another combining Gleneagles and AmericanPharoah. There's no sense combining American Pharoah with either Tonalist or Honor Code in the exacta as those will be the lowest paying combinations. 

 

Optionally, play an exacta box of Effinex, Tonalist, Honor Code and Gleneagles over ALL. At the $1 level the cost of the bet is $32 but if American Pharoah is not first or second the exacta will pay handsomely.

 

Wager with www.123bet.com and Wager Up for the Cup.

 

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Only way day to go and stay tuned folks for our 123bet Breeders' Cup Insider Analysis.

Race 3 #5 Candy Gran morning line 4/1
 
Small field but trainer Andrew McKeever's barn is in tip-top shape at the moment. Tough race but the Candy is up for it. Win wager only.
 
Race 4 # 5 Pow Wow Pal morning line 4/1
 
Legendary jockey Lanfranco 'Frankie' Dettori is in town and picks up this ride for Wesley Ward. Good form at this track and you can be sure Frankie ever the showman, shall provide a strong ride for the win. Win wager only.
 
Wager at 123bet.com
 
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HALLANDALE BEACH, October 23, 2015—Breeders’ Cup pre-entries were released Wednesday, all 200 of them, but the rightful buzz surrounds the 2015 Classic which, if it holds together, may prove to be the best field ever assembled for the championship event. 

This is possible due to the appearance of the first ever Triple Crown winner to compete in this race, a circumstance that forced racing publicists to come up with a new term should American Pharoah conquer the world, not just members of his own generation.

“Racing’s Grand Slam” might not be a terribly innovative term, but a pretty darn good one for a sport not usually celebrated for its originality. 

They could have gone in a different direction but “Battle of the Sexes” wouldn’t be novel either. However, it is yet another development to gin up the event to those poor souls who just don’t get it about the sport of horse racing. 

So let’s entertain this notion: Modern sports fans, and even U.S. racing fans for that matter, still get excited when boy meets girl.

The indelible memory, of course, is the battle that ended tragically at Belmont Park when Ruffian failed to complete the course in her match race with Kentucky Derby-winning Foolish Pleasure. 

Other, happier, latter day recollections include Zenyatta’s Classic, Rachel Alexandra’s Preakness, and recalling Derby winners Winning Colors and Genuine Risk, a tomboy yet beautiful mare who returned to finish second in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Consider that for a moment: In an era when it’s unusual for a three-year-old male to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown, Genuine Risk ran and placed in all three; remarkable, indeed.

The 2015 Classic is more than a celebrated match race between a Classics history making and a repeat champion of the fairer sex. And, as for Beholder, two recent memories stand out like beacons: 

There was the jaw-dropping moment when she completely inhaled her male foes in the Pacific Classic, her first start vs. the boys and at the Classic’s 10-furlong trip.

The other was a pan shot of her walking in the Santa Anita paddock recently, providing a view reminiscent of another behemoth race mare, Shuvee, the repeat winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1970-71 at its original distance of two miles. 

As exciting as this match is to anticipate, the 2015 Classic is more than a Triple Crown winner hitting for the circuit or a hookup at some fancy Midwest venue.

It is a race for the ages, one that also includes a Wood Memorial/Pennsylvania Derby winner; a three-time 2015 European Group 1 champion, and the G1 winner of the 2015 Hollywood Gold Cup. 

And lest we not forget this year’s winner of the storied Metropolitan Handicap and Whitney; the Travers winner; last year’s Belmont and JCGC winner, and an exciting late developer who won the G1 Awesome Again impressively in just his fourth lifetime start.

All will have their hooves full, and despite the depth of talent and the scope of their accomplishments, none are without serious questions to answer, to wit:

Will the rigorous campaign and the air miles catch up with American Pharoah, a question which cannot be answered definitively until 5:46 p.m. at Keeneland next Saturday? 

And while she had excuses, is Beholder the same mare outside California, and can she handle competition of this magnitude, by far the toughest in her career, on a surface over which she’s never run?

Can Frosted finish ahead of American Pharoah, something he has failed to do in three lifetime starts, and beat older rivals, too? 

Can Gleneagles, a four-time Group 1 winner at a mile or less over there, beat a field of this quality in his first lifetime start on dirt at the classic American distance of a mile and a quarter? 

Does Hard Aces really belong?

Will the talented, classy Honor Code have the same tremendous punch at 10 furlongs over an unfamiliar surface?

Is Keen Ice truly a horse for the future, or was his Travers victory the result of race dynamics that perfectly suited his style?

In another year, this question might be unnecessary but this is no ordinary year: Can a relatively inexperienced Smooth Roller take another leap forward against horses of this caliber?

And while his JCGC victory was an indication that he is all the way back, is Tonalist ultimately more than a horse for the Belmont Park course?

These are all legitimate concerns for all and what makes the 2015 Classic fascinatingly singular.

Until more video review is reviewed, all we can offer is this: On the Pricci Energy Ratings scale--a measure of energy distribution efficiency, the top-ranked horses on their best recent form are Beholder at 100.2; American Pharoah at 96.3, and Smooth Roller, 92.7.

On the Thoro-Graph scale, our interpretation of the patterns based on their previous performance figures, show two horses with upside capable of moving forward in the Classic: Keen Ice and Frosted.

So, go figure. 

SATURDAY BETTABLES:

KEENELAND: Grade 3 Velley View Stakes

Extremely wide open as many top trainers going after graded stature for the last time against straight 3YO fillies. Giving lean to Sunset Glow (4-1) and an already G1 winner and G2 placed on grass. Her TG figures and our Energy Figures put her squarely in this and getting 4-1 ante post is possible given the competitive nature of the group.

Taking Sunset Glow to win at 7-2 or greater and key-boxing exactas with sharp, well-spaced Gap Year (8-1) and first-time Pletcher + Lasix Osaila (9-2).

 

BELMONT PARK: The Empire Classic

Today’s celebrated New York Showcase Day, featuring the best of the state-bred breed, the Empire Classic is always an interesting renewal featuring either strong open class favorites or a wide open scramble. Today’s edition features a little of both.

Given running styles of the major contenders and the race dynamics anticipated, this figures to be very much a rider’s race and, at some point, a chess match between Javier and Johnny, a very familiar scenario in recent years on this circuit.

We prefer the rapidly developing 4YO gelding Royal Posse, whose game has been raised since entering the Rudy Rodrigues barn. The return of Royal Posse and Saratoga Snacks, who finished noses apart in Saratoga’s Evan Shipman at today’s 9F trip.

‘Snacks’ is a Belmont Park horse for course; ‘Posse’ might be a bit more versatile and is favored by dynamics, the tie-breaker for us.

Taking Royal Posse to win, no price restrictions, and key-boxing exactas with ‘Snacks’ (3-1) and live value play, dynamics-suited Empire Dreams (6-1).

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Roy Steele INTERNATIONAL HANDICAPPER kept players in the loop this week in Australia and Canada - hitting some nice payoffs. 

With the UK Champions’ day contested over the weekend all paths now lead to Kentucky for the Breeders’ Cup. 

We have been keeping you informed on horses we think have a positive shot at winning at Keeneland on 30th and 31st Oct. BREEDERS’ CUP MEET with a view to playing them in future pools or ante-post lists. 

Another one joined our list this weekend GLENEAGLES an unbeaten3yo colt by GALILEO unbeaten till this past Saturday at Ascot in the QEII Stakes. 

Connections have not run him due to turf conditions being unsuitable and they were far from suitable on Saturday being placed 6th over a mile 1/4.

HOWEVER the trainer Aidian O'Brien and owners Coolmore were quick to confirm his participation in the upcoming BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC to take on TRIPLE CROWN WINNER AMERICAN PHAROAH.

A bold decision given the race is on dirt but over a distance he will relish.

If we go back several years his sire ran in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Belmont finishing sixth so history is not on his side OR IS IT.......

At Santa Anita 2011 the same connections ran HENRY THE NAVIGATOR a 3yo colt with a similar schedule as GLENEAGLES and ran him on the off chance of he would be fit and like the conditions and the competition at Santa Anita. He ran an outstanding race to finish a fast finishing second at huge odds. GLENEAGLES is currently at 16/1 in most lists a sporting bet if ever. 

Horses on my future wager list for the BREEDERS’ CUP.

GLENEAGLES 16/1 ..... BC Classic

GRAND ARCH 10/1 ..... BC Turf Mile

UNDRAFTED 6/1 ..... BC Turf Sprint

GOLDEN HORN ..... BC 1m 1/2 Turf (Yet to declare) 

More to come in the forthcoming days ..... make sure you wager with www.123bet.com 

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Thursday 15th October 2015.

Roy Steele International Handicapper gives an update on forth coming Breeders’ Cup and Woodbine Pattison Mile. He hit 2 Winners 5 Exacta's 2 Tri's for a positive ROI for 123bet players in yesterday's evening card at Woodbine.

Still early days for the Breeders’ Cup but already people are asking for info on live runners so as to play the future pools or ante-post wagering as it is referred to in Europe. I will mention a couple of fancies below, however a big champions meet takes place at Ascot in the UK and whether or not several declared horses take part determines whether they will travel to Keeneland for the Breeders Cup. 

Woodbine Sunday 18th October

The Pattison International over a mile on Sunday afternoon along with the E.P. Taylor Stakes.

We will present a full card of selections on Sunday, but a in-depth look at the International will be available on our site Friday morning.

The Post positions will be drawn Thursday pm. Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore will be participating with CANNOCK CHASE  along with several American invaders a good race is in store.

 

Breeders’ Cup 30th and 31st October

Still a couple of days before we know who exactly is coming to Keeneland to participate.

 A. O'Brien, the Irish trainer, has some runners at ASCOT on Saturday whether they run or not will determine his hand for the Breeders’ Cup and always a dangerous one at that.

Wesley Ward has some interesting entries some are entered up here at Woodbine on Sunday and also whether they run or not will decide their next port of call. However one I really like and the jock is already declared for Keeneland is UNDRAFTED 6/1 in the turf sprint Ward/Dettori combo which is worth taking a chance with now.

GOLDEN HORN the best middle distance horse in Europe this year has yet to confirm but really good chance he will come as John Gosden learned his craft in the U.S. and has always supported the event.

GRAND ARCH 10/1 in the turf mile catches my eye trained by Brian Lynch up at Woodbine. Lynch is having a breakout year and this guy has been pointed for this race all year. 

Try and take advantage of these prices if possible and we will be giving a more in depth look once the fields are set or if there is any horse taking a boat load of money in the ante post lists. 

Saturday’s card at Woodbine will be available where we are in good form Wednesday’s evening card we hit the guaranteed 100k pick 4 advertised on the site.

 

"May The Horse Be With You"

 

 

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Early Breeders' Cup Mile Thoughts by Ellis Starr

Exclusive for 123bet.com

 

With the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland and the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at Longchamp (in France) having been run last Saturday, all the preps for the Breeders' Cup Mile are in the books and we can take a look at the main contenders and some potential wagering strategy for what should be a great betting race. Last year Karakontie was one of three horses I considered contenders to win and we were rewarded with a $62 payoff, as well as tremendous returns in pick 3 and pick 4 wagers, which is often the case on Breeders' Cup Day.

 

As usual, the Mile may be chock full of European horses, with Karakontie expected to defend his title off sixth and third place finishes this year. Last year, Karakontie won as a three year old following an 11th place finish in the Prix de la Foret. This year we may see the winner of that race, the three year old Make Believe, who also (like Karakontie) won the Group 1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains - Prix Le Parisien earlier in the year. Other notable runners include Mondialiste, winner of the Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile last month, Shadwell Turf Mile winner Grand Arch, the mare Esoterique, winner of the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes in England last weekend and Territories (another three year old), winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat before a runner-up finish behind Esoterique in the Group 1 Prix Jacque Le Marois.

 

Speaking of female runners, since eight of the previous 31 editions of the Mile have been won by fillies or mares, we must consider them strongly. In addition to Esoterique, this year we should also see Tepin, who won the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland last weekend.

 

Other horses of note, at least for the minor awards and therefore for any exacta or trifecta tickets played, are Lea (second in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile) and Tourist, beaten a head and a neck in the Shadwell Turf Mile in his second start off a long layoff. Karakontie is on the improve but I think I'll relegate him to second and third position for betting purposes as well. Territories is a nice horse but he has been beaten by Esoterique as well as by Dutch Connection, the beaten favorite in the Shadwell Turf Mile, so he is also an exotics contender only.

 

Back to thinking about who can win, Make Believe gets top billing as he showed an explosive kick winning the Prix de la Foret, although Esoterique has done little wrong winning two group 1 races in a row. Mondialiste was impressive winning the Ricoh Mile with big turn of foot. Another horse who can show a big burst of speed when asked is Tepin, who may have an edge over some of the runners having just won at Keeneland where the mile will be run in a few weeks, with Grand Arch also having potentially significant local experience.

 

Taking all that into consideration, if the Mile were to be run tomorrow and knowing what I know at this point my betting strategy would be as follows:

 

I would bet Make Believe to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. I would consider a win bet on Esoterique at 4 to 1 or more for a lesser amount. Additionally, I wouldn't argue with anyone wanting to bet Grand Arch, Tepin or Mondialiste to win, especially at odds of 10 to 1 or more.

 

I would then key Make Believe on top in exactas over Tepin, Grand Arch, Esoterique and Mondialiste. I would reverse that exacta for half the amount I played it with Make Believe on top.

 

I would play two trifecta tickets, the first being Make Believe over Tepin, Grand Arch, Esoterique and Mondialiste over the rest of the field. The second trifecta ticket would be Make Believe over Tepin, Grand Arch, Esoterique and Mondialiste over Tepin, Grand Arch, Esoterique, Mondialiste, Territories, Tourist, Lea and Karakontie.

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John Pricci, industry racing journalist, analyst and handicapper starts his new look column called 123bet SIMULCAST WARRIOR WEEKEND.

We hope you enjoy this new wagering column.

123bet SIMULCAST WARRIOR WEEKEND of 10.03.15

 

It’s called ‘Super Saturday’ and for good reason; handicappers will need all fingers and most toes to count the number of graded stakes this weekend, especially Saturday: Welcome to Breeders’ Cup prep season.

 

The focus until month’s end will be one handicapper’s overview of the races that figure to have a profound effect on what might occur Oct. 30-31 at Keeneland Race Course.

 

Saturday at BELMONT PARK: G1 JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP: This is Tonalist’s (6-5) race to lose. While the 4-yearold variety is faster on the TG scale, he has not been as effective as the sophomore version. But they still run the JCGC at Belmont Park where Clement trainee is [6] 4-2-0 in his career. And he’s been firing bullets, not the standard modus operandi for this barn. The outside post in this sextet gives Johnny V. many options. He’ll need them: Not much early speed to threaten Constitution’s apparent lose lead.

 

Bettables: Key favorite in multiples. Possible value upsetter is Effinex (6-1), who’s best game is Saturday’s 10 furlongs.

 

 G2 KELSO HANDICAP: Another Breeders’ Cup prep that features a virtually unbeatable favorite in Honor Code (3-5), widely regarded as the best active older dirt male in the country. While this is an intended prep, at which he will be less than 100%, his wide class edge and one-turn mile dynamic—his best go in our view---in this short field should not compromise his whirlwind late run. Don’t know how to beat him.

 

Bettables: Key the favorite in multiples. Appealing Tale (6-1) may be tough to catch shipping east for trainer Peter Miller. He is the main speed assuming a clean break and Joe Talamo comes with the package. The live price shot is Matterhorn (15-1), on a forward-looking pattern for Todd Pletcher.

 

 G1 FRIZETTE STAKES: Unlike last weekend’s G1 Chandelier at Santa Anita, when Songbird went into and emerged as a dominating juvenile filly player, the Frizette belongs to anyone. None of the seven have overly impressed with many coming off maiden wins or going long for the first time. There’s even a European ship-in with first-Lasix that’s won on a synthetic surface but has never raced on dirt; Memoralia (5-1) does have experience in her corner.

 

Bettables: The filly that intrigues most is New York-bred She’s All Ready (3-1). We’re not crazy about her rail draw, but she is 2-for-2 in life, won on a stretchout to 6-1/2 furlongs to take a state-bred stakes, and goes a mile for the Ryerson barn that’s 23% profitable stretching off two sprints. By prolific freshman sire Girolamo, she gets potential stamina from the El Prado mare, Prominent and owns consecutive bullet works for this. Junior Alvarado takes the call and we’re willing to take 5-2 post time odds straight and an exacta box with Nickname (7-2).

 

Saturday at KEENELAND: G2 THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA: All eyes are on popular filly sprint champion Judy the Beauty (6-5); deservedly so. Trainer Wesley Ward said on Tuesday’s NTRA conference call that if the Breeders’ Cup were not at Keeneland, where ‘Judy’ has been based all her life, she would have been already retired. She will not be at absolute tops, as she promises to be at month’s end, but she will be close to it. Having had only two starts this year and training like a monstress, the idea has been to get her good for today and for Ward to hold her there, finishing touches notwithstanding. She will be a very tough out.

 

Bettables: Key ‘Judy’ in multiples. The potential value is Leigh Count (3-1), the defending champion in this race, taking her only run on Keeneland dirt. Second in two graded stakes this year on turf and synthetic for Michael Stidham, this filly is on virtually the same program as ‘Judy’: Two starts, then one prep, then big dance. We like that her latest race was at Presque Isle Downs, the Tapeta surface being very kind to runners making the transition to dirt in a subsequent start. Pricci Energy Figures are highly competitive and her ability/style rates to earn her a good trip here. Victor Espinoza replaces veteran Gary Boulanger. Heykittykittykitty (10-1) is the price shot.

 

G1 FIRST LADY STAKES: It’s the same old story for trainer Mark Casse: If it weren’t for bad luck with Tepin (5-2)… Bad enough she was out-bobbed by a nose in the G1 Diana, and worse that she was nailed in the last jump of the G2 Ballston Spa. Today she turns back to her best distance, one mile, owning a [3] 2-1-0 career slate, but what happens? The extreme outside 11-post going a two turns. On her best go, she will win, especially given the solid conditioning she gained over the Saratoga summer.

 

Bettables: We’re hoping that the bad post will get many of the big boys off the parimutuel scent, so that getting a tad more than early line odds is conceivable. We would bet Tepin straight at 3-1 or greater, and key-box her in multiple pools with Aidan O’Brien’s Lasix-on pair of Euro ship-ins Easter (4-1) and Outstanding (6-1), and Crowley’s Law (5-1) third in Belmont’s rapidly run G3 Noble Damsel.

 

G1 BREEDERS’ FUTURITY: For those who might not have seen the G3 Iroquois at Churchill September 12, a trip to your favorite video provider is in order given the amount of trouble experienced by the second and third finishers. It’s not as if Rated R Superstar (6-1) had trouble as much as he was the victim of circumstances. That’s what can happen from post 9 going 1-1/16 miles around two turns in Louisville. Try as he normally might, Calvin Borel could save no ground, racing wide throughout and making a premature balcony move on the far turn. That made it almost impossible for this team to catch the good-tripping talent, Cocked and Loaded. But the ‘Superstar’ kept rallying, staving off and separating himself from a strong-moving rival to his outside leaving headstretch, and narrowing the winner’s margin by inches deep in the lane. Today ‘Borail’ draws his favorite spot; right on the fence.

 

Bettables: Willing to take 4-1 or greater in the straight pool. Will key-box exactas with stakes experienced Exaggerator (7-2), Uncle Vinny (9-2) and impressive maiden breaker Brody’s Cause (6-1). Also adding price shot Uncle Jerry (30-1) to super-exotics mix.

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