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Posted by on in General

LATE PICK 4 - LAUREL RACE COURSE - DECEMBER 24, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

RACE 6 - Claiming - 1-1/16 Miles

GOLDEN GLINT (3-1): is 6-for-17 here, 1-for-11 elsewhere, and is a 4-time winner at the trip. Eppler has been white hot recently and is 2-for-4 with Toledo of late.

SCORCH (4-1): hasn’t started since January now makes first start for Michael Dickinson, legendary with long layups--40% effective in that scenario this year. Has been competitive with better than he meets here.

I CAME TO PARTY (12-1): was a game second in Delaware two-turner two starts back then tried stakes sprinters at Delta last out, albeit around two turns; back to reality here and owns (4) 2-2-0 record at the trip.

AFLEET WILLY (4-1): gelded 3YO is racing in career form, loves the strip and handles this trip; Carrasco aboard for three-back win.

EXOTICA: Monkey’s Medal (10-1), 10-Street Spice (10-1)

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TAMPA BAY DOWNS - GRADED LATE PICK 4

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

RACE 7: INAUGURAL STAKES - 2YO

OBVIOUS ONE (5-2): is well named, earning two excellent Thoro-Graph figures in both starts. Fastest horse in race is 50 days removed from that effort; 32% profitable scenario for DaCosta.

CHANCE OF LUCK (3-1), uncoupled Bennett, earned very good figure winning 7F racing debut at Laurel, a key event producing three next out winners.

TRIUMPHANT JOY (9-2): beat maiden claimers in fast time at Delaware, a key race producing three next out winners and Gerald Bennett has won with two DEL shippers this meet.

DOWNTOWNBIGBROWN (8-1): has not developed as of yet but uncoupled DaCosta could improve on the turnback.

DONT COME KNOCKIN (8-1): has never taken backward step and moved forward when distant third in recent stakes; back in sprint makes it a tricky read.

DOUBLE DOWN DRAMA (8-1) makes debut in stakes off series of fast works with an early pedigree for Jonathan Thomas, 2-for-2 here through Wednesday; interesting.

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HOLIDAYFEST GRADED STAKES from NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 26

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

Race 3 - Grade 3 COMELY STAKES | 3YO FILLIES | 1-1/8 Miles

Lewis Bay (8-5): Showed a new dimension with a dominating front-running score taking the G3 Turnback the Alarm and in the past has been better with a target. Either way she’s a strong favorite as a two-time winner at today’s added distance and a perfect 2-for-2 at the Big A. Only question is returning on short rest from a lifetime best run; strong favorite nonetheless.

Unbridled Mo (2-1): A winner of four of five lifetime starts, she returns off a career best but has lots of recovery time (Sept. 29), and all four of her wins have come around two turns. All five sibs are winners including another stakes horse, is training right along and Johnny takes the return call.

Going For Broke (3-1): Raced dully vs. her elders in G1 Beldame following a game placing behind redoubtable Songbird the only time she faced straight 3YOs this year. Owns a two-turn win at the trip and was second in her only start on this surface. Plenty of stamina on top side of pedigree; bottom side not as much.

Mo d’Amour (10-1): Despite a long pedigree, she’s been unsuccessful in four career starts at the trip but has shown incremental improvement over the summer, coming into this fresh. Has been training well since September, Todd is 28% efficient off 90-days+ layups looks ready for career best now. Live price shot.

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WEEKEND WARRIOR STAKES ANALYSIS NOVEMBER 12

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

AQUEDUCT

Grade 3 RED SMITH HANDICAP | 3&UP | 1-3/8 Miles - TURF

A dozen runners were entered overnight but it wasn’t long before it became apparent the marathon would boil down to three prime contenders trained by three grass masters.

Chad Brown saddles 8-5 early line favorite 8-Wake Forest, short odds by virtue of the fact he exits five straight Grade 1s—yes, this is much easier—and he’s 1-for-1 at the trip. While he might not be course or distance compromised, a slow pace could make it difficult. However, Javier’s good at adapting to that kind of thing...

Two with upset potential are 7-Messi (5-1) and 11-Danish Dynaformer (5-1).

Messi is on a bounce-rebound pattern, off a lowly rated effort, however—and is laudably versatile; racing on the pace or from off of it. Reuniting with winning rider Edgar Prado, Graham Motion is profitable in graded stakes. Recent works at Fair Hill base very sharp.

Four-year-old Danish Dynaformer, developing nicely for Roger Attfield, has been up against it lately vs. Grade 1 rivals in last two. He does own a win at this level going 12 furlongs so distance a non-issue here. Anytime this barn reaches out for Johnny in New York, you can wager the horse is live.

Most Probable Winner: Wake Forest

Value Players: Danish Dynaformer or Messi


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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

BELMONT PARK - LATE PICK 4 | SATURDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2016

RACE 6: Allowances/Optional Claiming | 7 Furlongs - TURF

Changewilldoyagood (12-1): Two-for-six on Belmont green, 2-for-17 doing anything else, and a winner at the trip. Lifetime best Pricci Energy Rating this course and trip but over yielding ground. Drawn well and reunites with winning rider Carmouche.

Plainview (10-1): Extremely hard hitting 8-year-old state-bred is 11-for-35 on turf, a six-time course winner, and deadly at this trip; (3) 2-1-0 slate. Top PER this class and distance, drops to winning level with Tyler Gaffalione an NY visitor. Knock is away since Dec., 2015.

Matador (20-1): Showed marked improvement winning Spa finale off barn change and takes confident rise for turf maven Mike Maker, but Irad off in favor of #4. Proven turf runner but has no experience this course or trip. Mixed signals.

Dowse’s Beach (7-2): Five time grass winner not particularly effective on Belmont turf but has winning connections all the way around. Missed by nose when returned to winning level here last out, earning excellent PER, and a winner this course and trip. Solid contender.

Hothersal (3-1): Hails from 28% Jason Servis shed and 8YO dropping from a series of G3s—second in Cliff Hanger last out at MTH. Returns with profitable spacing and gets switch to strong-finishing Antonio Gallardo. Figures not as fast but excellent class fit this level. Sold Contedner.

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FLORIDA SIRES STAKES SERIES FINALE | SATURDAY OCTOBER 1, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

RACE 10 - MY DEAR GIRL STAKES | 2YO Fillies | 1-1/16 Miles

Larryandpearlslucy (30-1): Authoritative debut winner at Mountaineer over even money rival is bred to go long and gets confident placement from barn that’s 31% first-time going long. Long pedigree and pole position; consider exotics slot only at huge odds.

Sweet Tooth Haven (5-1): Trainer Gold said taking her out of her best speed game in Susan’s Girl was a mistake. Fastest on Pricci Energy and Thoro-Graph scales and will be on engine from inside post. Improvement expected.

Katinka (15-1): Had no excuses when second vs. maidens last out, albeit colts, and barn is profitable with stretch-outs. Dynamics put her between a rock and hard place.

Hello Juliet (20-1): Finished well too late for 4th in bulky Desert Vixen matchup behind undefeated favorite here. Owns stretchout pedigree, good spacing, and solid works at GPW base.

Dude Fantasy (6-1): Earned competitive PER in MSW debut, has two-turn pedigree, and returned in nine days for first of three works for this; Tyler on re-ride for top juvenile connects.

Surprise Wedding (10-1): Trainer Fawkes took complete base on balls vs. maiden claimers in very educational winning debut; ears pricking and geared down at finish. Way up in class and distance but showed high promise. Check replay for yourself.

Katira (20-1): Finished evenly in both lifetime starts while never threatening to break maiden. Good connects but extremely tall task here.

Stormy Embrace (12-1): Placed gamely behind today’s favorite despite racing greenly while wide in deep stretch in sloppy 7-furlongs last out. Had purposeful and solid mile breeze for this at GPW base.

Grandma Maria (30-1): Beat 11 rivals while making two moves on the lead, proving much the best before coming back with very sharp breeze 7 days later. Win came at $16K maiden-claiming level, however.

U S Diva (8-1): Had tough trip on sealed wet surface in Susan’s Girl going 7 furlongs following game placing behind favorite in Desert Vixen prior. Has the right style but a little light on two-turn family.

Fleet Dude (12-1): Snatched victory from defeat’s jaws in two-turn maiden breaker on turf in Indiana last out. Super trainer Cox has [4] 2-1-0 slate shipping here and is field’s lone starter with two two-turn runs. Attracts Cornelio; very interesting.

Stop the Drama (30-1): Stretches out from two turf sprints for low profile outfit that’s 4-for-12 making route debuts and also is 2-for-5 with second-Lasix runners. But unable to handle maiden claimers last out.

Cajun Delta Dawn (2-1): Four-for-four lifetime, has versatility and a bulldog refuse-to-lose heart. Seeking to become only second filly to sweep filly series [Awesome Feather]. Has top connects but post an absolute killer here. Need closer to 3-1 for straight play.

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PENNSYLVANIA DERBY DAY ALL STAKES PICK 4 - SEPTEMBER 24, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

COMMENTS FROM SEPT. 17 - WOODBINE MILE LATE PICK 4 - WINS & NOTABLE FINISHERS

RACE 9 - Maiden Claiming | 6-1/2 Furlongs

Ratface Macdougall (6-1): Been showing improved speed with each subsequent start, just missing in last. Has bullet work for this but added sixteenth unlikely to help. Recent blowout fastest of 10 for the week here. (won, 6-1)

Sir Bronx (3-1): Carroll barn en fuego recent and is 35% effective with its beaten claimers. Late developing 3YO gelding has improved since dropping to this level for last two. Solid works and Contreras on a return call; obvious must use. (2nd, 5-2)

RACE 10 - Grade 1 NORTHERN DANCER | 1-1/2 MILES TURF

The Pizza Man (8-1): Hasn’t delivered [sorry] since taking Del Mar G2 last fall. Prolific winner is a worthy (9) 3-0-2 at the trip but has not hit the board in either WO appearance. Recent AP work 4th fastest of 47 peers last week. (won, 5-1)

Wake Forest (5-2): Talented but has been somewhat enigmatic this season despite winning G1 Man o’ War this spring at Belmont. Solid recent works since tough-trip Million try and gets switch to Irad. Anticipating big last-run finish. (2nd, 5-2)

RACE 11 - Allowances | 1-1/16 MILES

Milwaukee Mist (4-1): 1-for-1 following barn change to Attfield who enjoys success going turf to AW, this runner’s preferred surface. Raffy Hernandez looking for repeat winning ride. (won, 7-2)

Cito (8-1): Barn is profitable with its AW performers but has struggled this meet. Three lifetime wins here and loves the trip with five exacta finishes including two wins. Just missed vs. weaker in last but Da Silva sticks; mixed signals. (2nd, 7-1)

RACE 12 - Grade 1 WOODBINE MILE | TURF

Tepin (1-2): Queen of the Turf, literally and figuratively, seeks eighth straight victory, fifth G1 since streak began last fall and her third over males. Wisely given time following arduous Queen Anne score. Outside draw provides Leparoux with options. Obvious one to beat, but this still a prep for defense of 2015 Breeders’ Cup Mile title (won, 2-5)

Tower of Texas (20-1): Finished well too late [see replay] when second in G2 Play King prepping for this August 20, a race producing one next-out winner from two starters. Won the King Edward at the trip last year... (2nd, 23-1)

Mutakayyef (7-2): Has been a different horse this season, winning Group 2 Summer Mile two back before a very game third vs. Postponed in York’s G1 Juddmonte International. Two of three lifetime wins at this trip and reuniting with winning partner O’Neill. Serious rival (3rd, 3-1)

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WOODBINE MILE Late PICK 4 - SEPTEMBER 17, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

COMMENTS FROM SEPT. 10 - KENTUCKLY DOWNS LATE PICK 4 - WINS & NOTABLE FINISHERS

Race 7 MORE THAN READY STAKES - 1 MILE

Watchyourownbobber (3-1): turns out to be yet another brilliant turf claim by Maker. Hard Spun 4YO has become a turf machine [(13) 6-3-2], is 2-for-4 at the trip and exits Mountaineer route that’s produced three next-out winners from as many starters. (won, 1-1)

Songsational (6-1): placed gamely in Saratoga’s Troy Stakes last out, comes up to added distance nicely for Mott, who taps Geroux for this. Recent bullet was 4th fastest of 69 peers this week at Belmont Park. (2nd, 9-2)

Race 8 ONE DREAMER STAKES 1 MILE 70 YARDS

Lots o’ Lex (10-1): gets back to reality after attempting G1 Beverley D in last for Aschinger, who’s 22% in LAY-2 scenarios and a worthy, profitable 24% with his shippers. Channing Hill has enjoyed prior success at this unusual configuration. (won, 12-1)

No Fault of Mine (3-1): is remarkably versatile 4YO that handles all surfaces—including turf in lone try at the trip. Has been toughened recently in series of graded events and attracts Geroux, 4-for-12 for this outfit in 2016. Logical favorite. (2nd, 2-1)

Fleet Birdie (12-1): carefully pointed here by LoPresti for longtime clients, drew off impressively to beat NW2 in Indiana Grand turf debut this June. Training well at KEE base for barn that’s batting 19% with repeaters and which has them ready off the bench. (3RD, 6-10

Race 9 Grade 3 KENTUCKY TURF CUP 1-1/2 MILES

Da Big Hoss (7-5): has proven amazing acquisition for Maker. Never-been-better 5-year-old is 3-for-5 at this trip, 1-for-1 at KD, and a winner of four of his last five beneath ‘Flo’. Worthy 125-pound highweight is handier than it appears on paper. (won, 1-2)

Bullards Alley (10-1): a G3 winner at CD this summer, was third in his lone start on this course with Glyshaw tapping regular partner Pedroza. Late developing, gelded 4YO has won at the trip and owns two strong 5F blowouts at CD base for this. (2ND, 18-1)

Rum Tum Tugger (30-1): a winner at this trip, is in from Saratoga for Sheppard, 1-for-1 with his only other KD starter to date. Legged up vs. tough set in the Johns Call last out, attracts BJ and merits super-exotics attention at anything near early line odds. (3rd, 60-1) [TRI: $354.80]

Race 10 KENTUCKY DOWNS LADIES SPRINT 6-1/2 FURLONGS

Mississippi Delta (5-2): a winner in her only start at trip, is multiple graded stakes-placed; Casse/’Flo’ team en fuego this year. Freshened at his CD base, is working well for this pointed placement. Worthy favorite has laudably versatile running style. (won, 3-2)

Rapid Rhythm (10-1): is versatile, hails from excellent connections but lacks experience on this course and at hybrid trip. Julien 1-for-2 for this outfit in 2016. (2nd, 10-1)

Rumble Doll (6-1): was narrowly beaten when fast-finish third at Spa now ships in for sharp young connections enjoying uncommon success with its turf runners. Was good second at Belmont three back in Belmont’s 7F Intercontinental augurs well. Attracts hot-riding BJ. (3rd, 6-1) [TRI: $214.00]

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

KENTUCKY DOWNS - ALL TURF STAKES PICK 4 | SEP 10, 2016

COMMENTS FROM SEPTEMBER 3 SPA LATE PICK 4 - WINS & NOTABLE FINISHERS

Race 9 - Grade 1 SPINAWAY | 2 YO FILLIES | 7 FURLONGS

Sweet Loretta (5-2): Powered away to win opening-day Schuylerville, her second victory in as many starts by an aggregate 11-1/4 lengths. Javier on the re-ride; only knock is the pole. (won, DH)

Pretty City Dancer (7-2): Has the most experience with three starts but hasn’t run in two months so she owns no Spa experience. Well bred, very expensive and Irad subs for injured Leparoux. Casse readying for big Fall campaign per usual. (won, DH)

Race 10 - Grade 1 WOODWARD STAKES | 3&UP | 1-1/8 MILES

Shaman Ghost (12-1): Raced dully following lifetime best effort winning G2 Brooklyn now returns with first-Lasix, is pole sitting and switching to Javier. Improvement expected but this is much tougher task. (won, 10-1)

Mubtaahij (5-1): Was a good third in the Suburban as the favorite in first start since returning from Dubai, where he finished second to California Chrome. Likely to make last run for Irad; Kiaran 1-2? (2nd, 5-1)

Race 11 - Grade 3 GLENS FALLS STAKES | F&M | 1-3/8 MILES - INNER TURF

Suffused (4-1): Made strong, wide rally and nearly caught Guapaza in the shadow of the Waya wire. Working very strongly since that effort and Mott barn now firing on all cylinders. Gets Jose O. on the re-ride and looms dangerous rival. (won, 5-2)

Guapaza (3-1): And, yes, Chad has two in here and this is the stronger on paper as 5YO seeks third straight and second straight on this course. Waya winner has needed conditioning and Javier takes the re-ride; very logical favorite. (2ND, 5-2)

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

SARATOGA RACE COURSE - RESULTS for AUGUST 27, 2016

Posted comments on winners with notable money finishers.

RACE 8 - Grade 1 KING’S BISHOP | 3 YO | 7 FURLONGS

Drefong (4-1): has continued his march forward in two runs for Bullet Bob at 3, winning both starts while very impressive visually. Has good spacing, worked bullets since, and gets Mike Smith on the re-ride. Wide draw is the good and bad news. (won, 3-1)

Economic Model (6-1): placed gamely after making mid-race run into stretch in G3 Dwyer. Broke maiden here in 2015 and second to rapid Awesome Banner at trip in Swale. Training strongly in blinkers. (2nd, 7-1)

RACE 9 - Grade 1 FOREGO | 3&UP | 7 FURLONGS

A.P. Indian (3-1): Has won three straight, earning excellent PER and T-G ratings last out, owns tactical speed and kick and is positioned nicely to trip out. Knock is picking up six pounds as 124-pound highweight. Worthy favorite, however. (won, 4-5)

Tamarkuz (15-1): Raced dully in lone start this year, the Met Mile. Non-competitive in this race at 5 and expecting more of same today despite attracting Smith. (2nd, 6-1).

RACE 10 - Grade 1 SWORD DANCER | 1-1/2 MILES - INNER TURF

Flintshire (1-5): Two-for-two at the Spa, may be world’s best turf marathoner. Showed his class to win Bowling Green off splits of 53 and 1:19.40. Pace likely to be more realistic here. Looms everyone’s P4 single. (won, 1-5)

Money Multiplier (8-1): Has come to hand for Chad in last two starts, won recent Spa return impressively and drops six pounds. Loses Castellano but picks up Irad and has shown affinity for this course. (2nd, 5-1)

RACE 11 - Grade 1 TRAVERS | 3YO | 1-1/4 MILES

Arrogate (10-1): Has been extremely impressive visually in all two-turn starts this year, beating his elders in each of three appearances. Has speed, kick, the pole, and picks up Mike Smith. Up in class, distance and weight scale [all tote 126]. (won, 11-1)

American Freedom (6-1): Was an excellent second to Exaggerator on tiring sloppy track in the Haskell. Bejarano had his choice and sticks here. Has blinkers removed, a 31% Baffert tack. (2nd, 6-1)

Tagged in: John Pricci SARATOGA
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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

Saratoga - Late Pick 4 - August 20, 2016

COMMENTS FROM AUGUST 6 P4 AT SARATOGA, NOTABLE WINNERS & MONEY FINISHERS

RACE 8: Grade 1 TEST STAKES 3YO F 7 FURLONGS

Poala Queen (20-1): tried the G1 Kentucky Oaks and Acorn to no avail in last two starts and while likely appreciating the cut back, this group appears to too tough for breakthrough performance.

Lightstream (8-1): earned field’s co-fastest figure breaking maiden at the trip in GP debut followed by win in 7F G3 Beaumont at KEE. Third in recent G1 Mother Goose, Lynch barn profitable with turnbacks and is major threat with a return to winter-spring form.

RACE 9: Grade 3 WAYA STAKES F&M 1-1/2 MILES INNER TURF

Guapaza (5-2): has been highly competitive on T-G scale in three New York appearances, albeit not so much on PER scale. Chad 28% effective with potential repeaters and winning rider Javier takes the return call.

Al’s Gal (20-1): earned top PER when fast-closing, tough-trip second in G3 Bewitch three back and was third again in G3 Modesty at AP last out. Highly competitive on both T-G and PER scales and looms stark overlay at early line odds.

RACE 10: The Grade 1 WHITNEY STAKES 3 & UP 1-1/8 MILES

Frosted (3-5): earned the highest figure ever recorded, according to Thoro-Graph’s Jerry Brown and must regress off that effort. But despite weight assignment (124 pounds), there’s plenty of wiggle room. Returns with good spacing, loves the trip (4) 2-2-0 and highly competitive albeit winless on this surface.

Comfort (8-1): hails from Todd barn that has very good record in this race. Rapidly improving 4YO is straight forward on figures, is nicely drawn with Johnny, and rates a puncher’s chance. Need at least early odds vs. this group.

RACE 11: DE LA ROSE STAKES F&M 1 MILE INNER TURF

Lady Lara (8-1): has always been promising turf mare but has disappointed often; finished willingly in rapidly run G1 Just A Game and drop just might be what Mott ordered.

SARATOGA LATE PICK 4 - AUGUST 20, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

Saratoga - Late Pick 4 - August 6, 2016

Comments from July 30 P4 at SARATOGA, notable winners & money finishers

RACE 8 - ALLOWANCES | 1-3/16 MILES - MELLON TURF

Ray’s The Bar (3-1) showed high promise in first two starts as 2015 juvenile but so far has failed to show added development at 3. Chad 24% in LAY-3 scenario, may come around reuniting with Javier. (WON: $8.60)

Idiosyncratic (6-1) finished well after the fact last time out, his first start since 2014, but was away again since April appearance. Chad 27% effective with 90-days+ layups and Irad a profitable 30% for this barn last two months, winning with 4 of last 11 rides. (2ND, EX: $53)

RACE 9 - Grade 1 VANDERBILT HANDICAP | 3&UP | 6 FURLONGS

A.P. Indian (5-1) comes off consecutive sharp scores going seven-eighths, including G3 Belmont Sprint Championship. Sharp blowout for streaking Delacour barn having career season and Bravo, looking to make it three straight, on board. (WON: $1.40)

Holy Boss (9-2) is effective when patiently handled but has proven inconsistent sort. True North third gets Johnny on the re-ride, loves the Spa and Asmussen has been live at meet thus far; nicely posted. (EX: $58)

RACE 10 - Grade 2 JIM DANDY STAKES | 3YO | 1-1/8 MILES

Laoban (20-1) had fastest recent blowout of 130 peers last week on this surface. Given that, and switch to Jose Ortiz, Guillot appears intent on the lead. Still winless in seven lifetime starts. (WON: $56)

Governor Malibu (9-2) has steadily improving PERs since taking state-bred stakes on Aqueduct Inner this winter. Good-finish Peter Pan runnerup was victimized by tough trip in Belmont. Has worked his way—literally—into this race and gets along well with Joel. (EX: $269.50)

RACE 11 - Maiden Claiming | F&M | 1-16 MILES - INNER TURF

Newcomb (8-1) drops into claimer for the first time for Proctor, a 23% angle, has trained steadily (missing work Jul 19?) at Fair Hill base and picks up Geroux; Looks like live ship-in. (WON: $8.80)

Smile Big (3-1) never has raced this cheaply for Chad, whose dropdowns have been hot and colt at meet thus far. Showed improved early speed when adding blinkers for MTH finale; drop and switch to Irad for logical, formidable early favorite. (EX: $29.40)


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By John Pricci
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Saratoga - Late Pick 4 - July 30, 2016

Comments from July 23 P4 at SARATOGA, notable winners & money finishers

RACE 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming | 1 Mile - INNER TURF

Our Way (6-1): ran well in recent salty spots after being victimized by a series of bad trips dating back to January at GP. Has some tactical speed and pole position with switch to Jose Ortiz indicates switch to close-range tactics. (Win: $22.00)

Tizzarunner (12-1): was a tough trip second in turf debut this winter, a listed stakes, indicative of confidence from Casse shed. Takes meaningful for barn that’s profitable 21% effective with second-time turfers. (Ex: $150.00)

Hockey School (8-1): raced wide following troubled start in last after breaking maiden by open lengths previously over yielding ground. Has five works since his last, switches to Rosario, and bred to improve given today’s two-turn dynamic. (Tri: $1,776)

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