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Subscribe to this list via RSS Blog posts tagged in Key Bets

Posted by on in General

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, June 3

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Penn Oaks Stakes - Race #6 at Penn National – Post Time 6:10 PM ET

Viva Vegas can post the upset, opening at 15/1, as going from a maiden winner to stakes winner as she's trying to do is something Diadura did last year, with Noble Ready going from maiden winner to stakes placed last summer. Viva Vegas came back from four and one-half months off on March 15 and won as she pleased by 6 in her first turf race and first two turn race, with an 88 Equibase figure higher than the maiden figure of most of these including recent stakes winners Party Boat and Adorable Miss. With Paco Lopez riding and likely to run even better than last out in her second start of the year, I'll key on Viva Vegas for profit here. Party Boat and Adorable Miss both should run well as both are coming off stakes wins on turf with 97 and 93 figures, respectively. Noble Ready finished second to Adorable Miss in her most recent start and should be considered for exactas, as should Spanish Harlem, who ran big in her only try on turf in her debut last December and who dominated in her most recent race, but in a three horse field. 

Bet Viva Vegas to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Add a place bet at 6 to 1 or more. 

Play an exacta consisting of Viva Vegas and Party Boat over Viva Vegas, Party Boat, Spanish Harlem, Adorable Miss and Noble Ready. 

Play an exacta of Viva Vegas, Party Boat, Spanish Harlem, Adorable Miss and Noble Ready over Viva Vegas and Party Boat.

All-Stakes Pick 4

Race 6 – Party Boat, Adorable Miss, Viva Vegas

Race 7 – Richard's Boy, Take Cover, Rainbow Heir

Race 8 – Virtual Machine, Discreet Lover, Matt King Coal, Page McKenney

Race 9 – Time to Travel, Big Score, Frostmourne

Cost at $0.50 is $54

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Posted by on in General

Key Bets & Races for Monday, December 26

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San Simeon Stakes - Race #6 at Santa Anita – Post Time 2:31 PM PT, 5:31 ET

He Will and Holy Lute are winners at the trip and both are drawn well with advantageous outside posts. He Will gets slight preference as he opens at 6/1. He won at the trip in his only try in May and on the cut back from two turns to one (off a pair of wins) gives him a big amount of late energy so he should be rolling past the field late. That's exactly what Holy Lute did in September when winning the Eddie D Stakes down the hill at 10/1. He was overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint but back where proven has every right to resume his winning ways. 

Betty's Bambino won 4 in a row when last seen 22 months ago, all downhill sprints, and has been working well. Cape Wolfe may go to post near his 15/1 starting odds and is very playable as he finished 2nd in last year's San Simeon at 9/2. Ohio got crowded badly in the stretch in the Eddie D when last seen, well regarded at 7/2. We can ignore that race and so he's got a fine shot. As for exotic bets like the exacta and trifecta, in a deep field in which a decent exacta ticket may be worth the risk, also consider Stormy Liberal, Acceptance and Richard's Boy for 2nd and 3rd. 

Bet He Will and Holy Lute to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

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Posted by on in General

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, December 3

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Go for Wand Handicap - Race #8 at Aqueduct –Post Time 3:43 PM ET

High Ridge Road gets a good outside post for this one turn mile trip as she cuts back from two turns. She won right before that in a one turn mile race, bringing her career record at the trip to a perfect three-for-tree. Two of those three wins came on the trainer change to Rice, who is sizzling hot so far at the meeting (8 for 31) and with the 2nd best last race Equibase Figure (104) in the field, High Ridge Road gets top billing. Bar of Gold is likely to be the heavy favorite coming off an 18 length win. Even though the win came in a one turn route like this one, it came against statebreds and it came on a sloppy track, so I feel the 117 Equibase figure is inflated. Her best before that was a solid 102 and Rosario rides back so she can't be discounted as a contender for exactas and pick 3's but there are others here offering better value for win bets. Highway Star, like Bar of Gold, is a NY bred who just won against her own kind and who is facing open company. Her won over the track last month at 7 furlongs was her best effort yet and she's four-for-four around one turn on dirt so she rounds out a trio that stands out against the other four entrants. 

Bet High Ridge Road to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more. Consider a second win bet, on Highway Star, at 5 to 2 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of High Ridge Road, Bar of Gold and Highway Star.

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Posted by on in General

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, October 1 including Santa Anita Pick 4

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Rodeo Drive Stakes - Race #8 at Santa Anita–Approx. Post Time 4:00 PM PT, 7 PM ET

Avenge is a rapidly improving four year old coming off a pair of wins on turf and peaking at the right time. She just won the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes, the same race last year's Rodeo Drive runner-up (Elektrum) won and she gets Flavien Prat, who has ridden Avenge to four of her five career wins. Considering Avenge has the ability to lead early or sit just off the pacesetter, in this full field that means she should avoid traffic issues many of the others may encounter and that could be the ticket to earning her second graded stakes win in a row. Frenzified won 4 of 11 in her native Great Britain before making her U.S. debut in June. Feeling the effects of having been away from the races for seven months, she finished third in that comeback effort, but two races later she won the CTT & TOC Handicap rather easily, earning a 112 figure that is on par with the 111 and 113 figures that the 2012 and 2014 winners of this race earned and right there with the 113 and 108 figures Avenge earned in her last two starts. Like Avenge, Frenzified can also run close to the front, and from a ground saving inside post she should be in the thick of the action from start to finish. Generosidade posted the 71 to 1 upset this past March when beating males in the San Luis Rey Stakes on this turf course then finished second against males again in the San Juan Capistrano. Winless in three races since, Generosidade may be turning the corner back to top form following a fast closing second behind Frenzified. Last year, Elektrum won the John C. Mabee as a four year old shortly after an allowance level win then finished second in the 2015 Rodeo Drive following that win but is winless in six races since then. On the other hand, Elektrum was narrowly beaten in her two most recent starts, including when third behind Avenge in the Mabee so it would be foolish to leave out Elektrum as a contender when only a half-length short of victory in her most recent race. Decked Out has run nine times so far in 2016, all against three-year-olds. Her only win of the year came in a grade 3 stakes in April but her most recent effort, in the Del Mar Oaks, put her on the radar as a contender in the Rodeo Drive. In the Oaks Decked Out rallied from last of 10 and even though fifth and five paths wide into the stretch she missed catching the winner by a head on the wire. If I went deeper in my contender list, Zipessa, a grade 3 winner one before last, would be next.

Bet Avenge to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. Consider win bets, of smaller amounts, on Frenzified at odds of 7 to 2 or higher and on Generosidade at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Avenge, Frenzified, Generosidade, Decked Out, Elektrum and Zipessa.

Play an exacta consisting of Avenge over Frenzified, Generosidade, Decked Out, Elektrum and Zipessa and also play the reverse of that exacta in case Avenge finishes second.

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Posted by on in General

Key Bets and Races for Saturday, September 24

Featuring the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx

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Commonwealth Oaks - Race #5 at Laurel– Approximate Post Time 3:10 PM ET

Broken Bridle won very nicely one before last, on the Laurel turf and with Carrasco in the saddle. Before that she had a lot of trouble and was moved up from third to second via a disqualification and after that she had even more trouble as the favorite and finished last, at Parx. Carrasco gets back on and she moves back to Laurel, two key elements to a repeat of that August 6 effort that can help her post the upset win. Stella Rose opens at 5 to 2 off a strong win at Saratoga, but the win came at the same first allowance condition Broken Bridle won at so she's no lock. Noble Beauty rallied from eighth to second (beaten a nose) in the last eighth of a mile in the Pucker Up Stakes last month then was moved up to first after the winner was disqualified. The original winner came back to win again, proving the race productive, so she should run well again. Pricedtoperfection, Princess Princess, It's The Truth and Involuntary can complete the exacta as well.

Bet Broken Bridle to win and place at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Broken Bridle, Stella Rose and Noble Beauty.

Play an exacta consisting of Broken Bridle, Stella Rose and Noble Beauty over Broken Bridle, Stella Rose, Noble Beauty Pricedtoperfection, Princess Princess, It's The Truth and Involuntary.

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Posted by on in General

Key Bets and Races for Saturday, September 17

Featuring Woodbine Pick 3 and Charles Town Pick 4

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Northern Dancer Stakes - Race #10 at Woodbine – Approximate Post Time 5:34 PM ET

In a really interesting edition of the Northern Dancer Stakes, there's a live longshot in Majeed and potentially two favorites that are a bit vulnerable in Wake Forest (5/2 morning line) and World Approval (2/1 morning line). The reason the two morning line choices are labeled "vulnerable" rather than "legitimate" is NEITHER has won at this 12 furlong trip, Wake Forest having finished second in his only try (in April) and World Approval running a mile and one-half for the very first time. On the other hand, Big Blue Kitten has won twice at the trip and also finished second in last year's Canadian International here at Woodbine. The Pizza Man has run poorly in three of his last four aces, but in the ONLY one of the four that was this distance, he missed by three noses on the wire in a race he could just as easily have won with a bit of luck after going five wide on the last turn. Then there's the lone European invader, Majeed, trained by exceptional trainer David Simcock, with world class jockey Jamie Spencer aboard and getting Lasix for the first time off a nose defeat at 1 7/16 miles last month.

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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, September 3

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Saranac Stakes - Race #5 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 2:45 PM ET

We'll start with an early KEY BETTING race as even though this year's Saranac only drew seven, EVERY horse has a shot and as such the probability of Camelot Kitten (the 9/5 starting favorite) actually has doesn't match up with his odds. The value in the race, and not just because of high odds, is Copingaway, who opens at 15/1. He won on this inner turf course 15 days ago at 26 to 1 but it wasn't a fluke as he had finished close when 3rd and 2nd in his previous two starts. The 111 Equibase Speed Figure Copingaway earned in that 8/19 win is as good as the 110 figure favorite Camelot Kitten earned winning the similar Pennine Ridge Stakes in June at Belmont and therefore if Copingaway repeats or bettors that effort he can post the upset. Santana was aboard for both recent "A" effort at the meeting and rides back, more reasons to back this colt. Call Provision may ale be a win bet "if" his 6 to 1 starting odds, or close to it, holds up. From the barn of leading trainer Brown, Call Provision won over the course at 1 3/16 miles last month so this 1 1/8 mile trip should be no problem and the only time he ran in a stakes race at this distance, he missed by inches to Camelot Kitten.

Bet Copingaway to win or to win and place at odds of 3 to 1 or higher. Consider a win bet on Call Provision as well, at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta consisting of Copingaway over ALL and then play the opposite exacta of ALL over Copingaway.
(If all seven horses run, the cost of both bets at the $1 minimum is just $12 and may be well worth the investment)

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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, August 6

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Test Stakes - Race #8 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 5:02 PM ET

 

A fairly strong field of eight lines up for this year's Grade 1 Test Stakes, a big race for three year old fillies at seven furlongs. Off the Tracks will be bet heavily off her win last month in the Grade 1 Mother Goose Stakes, which she won leading from start to finish. However, the 97 Equibase Figure earned was sub-par for a grade 1 race and I think she, as well as runner-up Lewis Bay, both have chances to finish second here but can be beaten for the win. Kareena and Lightstream share the bulk of the probability to win. Lightstream beat Kareena handily in their respective debuts in March, at this 7 furlong trip, with the winner earning a true Grade 1 Equibase figure (116) and the runner-up getting a 111 figure. Lightstream won the Beaumont Stakes (also at 7 furlongs) in her next start before winning another stakes on turf, again at 7 furlongs. When asked to go a mile and one-sixteenth in the Mother Goose, she ran evenly the last eighth of a mile when third, but cutting back to seven furlongs appears to be the right move to get Lightstream home in the Test and she's the better win bet of the two fillies, opening at 8/1. Kareena won about as easily as a horse can win in her 2nd start then won the Jersey Girl Stakes in June with a 106 figure, showing maturity in coming from off the pace for the 1st time. Castellano takes over for the red hot McLaughlin barn (7 for 17 at Saratoga through Thursday) and Kareena has every right to get first run on likely pacesetters Kinsley Kisses (adding blinkers) and Paola Queen (forced to go from the rail) and could hold Lightstream safe to the wire.

Bet Lightstream 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Lightstream and Kareena.

Play an exacta of Lightstream and Kareena over Lightstream, Kareena, Lewis Bay and Off the Tracks.

Play a trifecta of Lightstream and Kareena over Lightstream, Kareena, Lewis Bay and Off the Tracks over Lightstream, Kareena, Lewis Bay and Off the Tracks.

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