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Subscribe to this list via RSS Blog posts tagged in Weekend Warrior

Posted by on in General

LATE PICK 4 - LAUREL RACE COURSE - DECEMBER 24, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

RACE 6 - Claiming - 1-1/16 Miles

GOLDEN GLINT (3-1): is 6-for-17 here, 1-for-11 elsewhere, and is a 4-time winner at the trip. Eppler has been white hot recently and is 2-for-4 with Toledo of late.

SCORCH (4-1): hasn’t started since January now makes first start for Michael Dickinson, legendary with long layups--40% effective in that scenario this year. Has been competitive with better than he meets here.

I CAME TO PARTY (12-1): was a game second in Delaware two-turner two starts back then tried stakes sprinters at Delta last out, albeit around two turns; back to reality here and owns (4) 2-2-0 record at the trip.

AFLEET WILLY (4-1): gelded 3YO is racing in career form, loves the strip and handles this trip; Carrasco aboard for three-back win.

EXOTICA: Monkey’s Medal (10-1), 10-Street Spice (10-1)

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TAMPA BAY DOWNS - GRADED LATE PICK 4

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

RACE 7: INAUGURAL STAKES - 2YO

OBVIOUS ONE (5-2): is well named, earning two excellent Thoro-Graph figures in both starts. Fastest horse in race is 50 days removed from that effort; 32% profitable scenario for DaCosta.

CHANCE OF LUCK (3-1), uncoupled Bennett, earned very good figure winning 7F racing debut at Laurel, a key event producing three next out winners.

TRIUMPHANT JOY (9-2): beat maiden claimers in fast time at Delaware, a key race producing three next out winners and Gerald Bennett has won with two DEL shippers this meet.

DOWNTOWNBIGBROWN (8-1): has not developed as of yet but uncoupled DaCosta could improve on the turnback.

DONT COME KNOCKIN (8-1): has never taken backward step and moved forward when distant third in recent stakes; back in sprint makes it a tricky read.

DOUBLE DOWN DRAMA (8-1) makes debut in stakes off series of fast works with an early pedigree for Jonathan Thomas, 2-for-2 here through Wednesday; interesting.

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HOLIDAYFEST GRADED STAKES from NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 26

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

Race 3 - Grade 3 COMELY STAKES | 3YO FILLIES | 1-1/8 Miles

Lewis Bay (8-5): Showed a new dimension with a dominating front-running score taking the G3 Turnback the Alarm and in the past has been better with a target. Either way she’s a strong favorite as a two-time winner at today’s added distance and a perfect 2-for-2 at the Big A. Only question is returning on short rest from a lifetime best run; strong favorite nonetheless.

Unbridled Mo (2-1): A winner of four of five lifetime starts, she returns off a career best but has lots of recovery time (Sept. 29), and all four of her wins have come around two turns. All five sibs are winners including another stakes horse, is training right along and Johnny takes the return call.

Going For Broke (3-1): Raced dully vs. her elders in G1 Beldame following a game placing behind redoubtable Songbird the only time she faced straight 3YOs this year. Owns a two-turn win at the trip and was second in her only start on this surface. Plenty of stamina on top side of pedigree; bottom side not as much.

Mo d’Amour (10-1): Despite a long pedigree, she’s been unsuccessful in four career starts at the trip but has shown incremental improvement over the summer, coming into this fresh. Has been training well since September, Todd is 28% efficient off 90-days+ layups looks ready for career best now. Live price shot.

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Posted by on in General

WEEKEND WARRIOR STAKES ANALYSIS NOVEMBER 12

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

AQUEDUCT

Grade 3 RED SMITH HANDICAP | 3&UP | 1-3/8 Miles - TURF

A dozen runners were entered overnight but it wasn’t long before it became apparent the marathon would boil down to three prime contenders trained by three grass masters.

Chad Brown saddles 8-5 early line favorite 8-Wake Forest, short odds by virtue of the fact he exits five straight Grade 1s—yes, this is much easier—and he’s 1-for-1 at the trip. While he might not be course or distance compromised, a slow pace could make it difficult. However, Javier’s good at adapting to that kind of thing...

Two with upset potential are 7-Messi (5-1) and 11-Danish Dynaformer (5-1).

Messi is on a bounce-rebound pattern, off a lowly rated effort, however—and is laudably versatile; racing on the pace or from off of it. Reuniting with winning rider Edgar Prado, Graham Motion is profitable in graded stakes. Recent works at Fair Hill base very sharp.

Four-year-old Danish Dynaformer, developing nicely for Roger Attfield, has been up against it lately vs. Grade 1 rivals in last two. He does own a win at this level going 12 furlongs so distance a non-issue here. Anytime this barn reaches out for Johnny in New York, you can wager the horse is live.

Most Probable Winner: Wake Forest

Value Players: Danish Dynaformer or Messi


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WOODBINE MILE Late PICK 4 - SEPTEMBER 17, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

COMMENTS FROM SEPT. 10 - KENTUCKLY DOWNS LATE PICK 4 - WINS & NOTABLE FINISHERS

Race 7 MORE THAN READY STAKES - 1 MILE

Watchyourownbobber (3-1): turns out to be yet another brilliant turf claim by Maker. Hard Spun 4YO has become a turf machine [(13) 6-3-2], is 2-for-4 at the trip and exits Mountaineer route that’s produced three next-out winners from as many starters. (won, 1-1)

Songsational (6-1): placed gamely in Saratoga’s Troy Stakes last out, comes up to added distance nicely for Mott, who taps Geroux for this. Recent bullet was 4th fastest of 69 peers this week at Belmont Park. (2nd, 9-2)

Race 8 ONE DREAMER STAKES 1 MILE 70 YARDS

Lots o’ Lex (10-1): gets back to reality after attempting G1 Beverley D in last for Aschinger, who’s 22% in LAY-2 scenarios and a worthy, profitable 24% with his shippers. Channing Hill has enjoyed prior success at this unusual configuration. (won, 12-1)

No Fault of Mine (3-1): is remarkably versatile 4YO that handles all surfaces—including turf in lone try at the trip. Has been toughened recently in series of graded events and attracts Geroux, 4-for-12 for this outfit in 2016. Logical favorite. (2nd, 2-1)

Fleet Birdie (12-1): carefully pointed here by LoPresti for longtime clients, drew off impressively to beat NW2 in Indiana Grand turf debut this June. Training well at KEE base for barn that’s batting 19% with repeaters and which has them ready off the bench. (3RD, 6-10

Race 9 Grade 3 KENTUCKY TURF CUP 1-1/2 MILES

Da Big Hoss (7-5): has proven amazing acquisition for Maker. Never-been-better 5-year-old is 3-for-5 at this trip, 1-for-1 at KD, and a winner of four of his last five beneath ‘Flo’. Worthy 125-pound highweight is handier than it appears on paper. (won, 1-2)

Bullards Alley (10-1): a G3 winner at CD this summer, was third in his lone start on this course with Glyshaw tapping regular partner Pedroza. Late developing, gelded 4YO has won at the trip and owns two strong 5F blowouts at CD base for this. (2ND, 18-1)

Rum Tum Tugger (30-1): a winner at this trip, is in from Saratoga for Sheppard, 1-for-1 with his only other KD starter to date. Legged up vs. tough set in the Johns Call last out, attracts BJ and merits super-exotics attention at anything near early line odds. (3rd, 60-1) [TRI: $354.80]

Race 10 KENTUCKY DOWNS LADIES SPRINT 6-1/2 FURLONGS

Mississippi Delta (5-2): a winner in her only start at trip, is multiple graded stakes-placed; Casse/’Flo’ team en fuego this year. Freshened at his CD base, is working well for this pointed placement. Worthy favorite has laudably versatile running style. (won, 3-2)

Rapid Rhythm (10-1): is versatile, hails from excellent connections but lacks experience on this course and at hybrid trip. Julien 1-for-2 for this outfit in 2016. (2nd, 10-1)

Rumble Doll (6-1): was narrowly beaten when fast-finish third at Spa now ships in for sharp young connections enjoying uncommon success with its turf runners. Was good second at Belmont three back in Belmont’s 7F Intercontinental augurs well. Attracts hot-riding BJ. (3rd, 6-1) [TRI: $214.00]

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

Saratoga - Late Pick 4 - August 20, 2016

COMMENTS FROM AUGUST 6 P4 AT SARATOGA, NOTABLE WINNERS & MONEY FINISHERS

RACE 8: Grade 1 TEST STAKES 3YO F 7 FURLONGS

Poala Queen (20-1): tried the G1 Kentucky Oaks and Acorn to no avail in last two starts and while likely appreciating the cut back, this group appears to too tough for breakthrough performance.

Lightstream (8-1): earned field’s co-fastest figure breaking maiden at the trip in GP debut followed by win in 7F G3 Beaumont at KEE. Third in recent G1 Mother Goose, Lynch barn profitable with turnbacks and is major threat with a return to winter-spring form.

RACE 9: Grade 3 WAYA STAKES F&M 1-1/2 MILES INNER TURF

Guapaza (5-2): has been highly competitive on T-G scale in three New York appearances, albeit not so much on PER scale. Chad 28% effective with potential repeaters and winning rider Javier takes the return call.

Al’s Gal (20-1): earned top PER when fast-closing, tough-trip second in G3 Bewitch three back and was third again in G3 Modesty at AP last out. Highly competitive on both T-G and PER scales and looms stark overlay at early line odds.

RACE 10: The Grade 1 WHITNEY STAKES 3 & UP 1-1/8 MILES

Frosted (3-5): earned the highest figure ever recorded, according to Thoro-Graph’s Jerry Brown and must regress off that effort. But despite weight assignment (124 pounds), there’s plenty of wiggle room. Returns with good spacing, loves the trip (4) 2-2-0 and highly competitive albeit winless on this surface.

Comfort (8-1): hails from Todd barn that has very good record in this race. Rapidly improving 4YO is straight forward on figures, is nicely drawn with Johnny, and rates a puncher’s chance. Need at least early odds vs. this group.

RACE 11: DE LA ROSE STAKES F&M 1 MILE INNER TURF

Lady Lara (8-1): has always been promising turf mare but has disappointed often; finished willingly in rapidly run G1 Just A Game and drop just might be what Mott ordered.

SARATOGA LATE PICK 4 - AUGUST 20, 2016

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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

Saratoga - Late Pick 4 - August 6, 2016

Comments from July 30 P4 at SARATOGA, notable winners & money finishers

RACE 8 - ALLOWANCES | 1-3/16 MILES - MELLON TURF

Ray’s The Bar (3-1) showed high promise in first two starts as 2015 juvenile but so far has failed to show added development at 3. Chad 24% in LAY-3 scenario, may come around reuniting with Javier. (WON: $8.60)

Idiosyncratic (6-1) finished well after the fact last time out, his first start since 2014, but was away again since April appearance. Chad 27% effective with 90-days+ layups and Irad a profitable 30% for this barn last two months, winning with 4 of last 11 rides. (2ND, EX: $53)

RACE 9 - Grade 1 VANDERBILT HANDICAP | 3&UP | 6 FURLONGS

A.P. Indian (5-1) comes off consecutive sharp scores going seven-eighths, including G3 Belmont Sprint Championship. Sharp blowout for streaking Delacour barn having career season and Bravo, looking to make it three straight, on board. (WON: $1.40)

Holy Boss (9-2) is effective when patiently handled but has proven inconsistent sort. True North third gets Johnny on the re-ride, loves the Spa and Asmussen has been live at meet thus far; nicely posted. (EX: $58)

RACE 10 - Grade 2 JIM DANDY STAKES | 3YO | 1-1/8 MILES

Laoban (20-1) had fastest recent blowout of 130 peers last week on this surface. Given that, and switch to Jose Ortiz, Guillot appears intent on the lead. Still winless in seven lifetime starts. (WON: $56)

Governor Malibu (9-2) has steadily improving PERs since taking state-bred stakes on Aqueduct Inner this winter. Good-finish Peter Pan runnerup was victimized by tough trip in Belmont. Has worked his way—literally—into this race and gets along well with Joel. (EX: $269.50)

RACE 11 - Maiden Claiming | F&M | 1-16 MILES - INNER TURF

Newcomb (8-1) drops into claimer for the first time for Proctor, a 23% angle, has trained steadily (missing work Jul 19?) at Fair Hill base and picks up Geroux; Looks like live ship-in. (WON: $8.80)

Smile Big (3-1) never has raced this cheaply for Chad, whose dropdowns have been hot and colt at meet thus far. Showed improved early speed when adding blinkers for MTH finale; drop and switch to Irad for logical, formidable early favorite. (EX: $29.40)


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By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123bet.com

Saratoga - Late Pick 4 - July 30, 2016

Comments from July 23 P4 at SARATOGA, notable winners & money finishers

RACE 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming | 1 Mile - INNER TURF

Our Way (6-1): ran well in recent salty spots after being victimized by a series of bad trips dating back to January at GP. Has some tactical speed and pole position with switch to Jose Ortiz indicates switch to close-range tactics. (Win: $22.00)

Tizzarunner (12-1): was a tough trip second in turf debut this winter, a listed stakes, indicative of confidence from Casse shed. Takes meaningful for barn that’s profitable 21% effective with second-time turfers. (Ex: $150.00)

Hockey School (8-1): raced wide following troubled start in last after breaking maiden by open lengths previously over yielding ground. Has five works since his last, switches to Rosario, and bred to improve given today’s two-turn dynamic. (Tri: $1,776)

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