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Posted by on in General

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, May 6

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Woodford Reserve Turf Classic - Race #11 at Churchill Downs– Post Time 5:25 PM ET

Ballagh Rocks is one of two horses (the other being Conquest Panthera) coming out of the Maker's 46 Mile a Grade 1 stakes last month, in which there were five horses in a blanket finish on the wire. He won his last start as a three-year-old in December and his first start as a four-year-old in January then Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott saw fit to put the horse in grade one company off the January win and was almost rewarded with a victory as he closed from the last of 11 to nearly win the race. The key to his four big races in a row were the Blinkers added starting last November when he won on the Churchill Downs turf and with any improvement of his last start he can post the upset in this race, opening at 10-1.

Bal a Bali also added Blinkers four races back, nearly winning the first of the four and winning his most recent start, a similar Grade 1 stakes like this one. Castellano rode him for the first time in that victory and rides again so he fits on all counts for another effort enough to win in this situation.

Conquest Panthera finished a neck in front of the top pick in the Maker's 46 Mile in a career best effort and in his second start off a short layoff and second start as a four-year-old. It won't take much improvement off that effort to earn his first graded stakes win today.

Divisidero won last year's edition of this race by a neck in a big effort to bring his record to a perfect two for two on the Churchill Downs turf. He missed by a nose in his most recent race following a couple of months off is approaching top form once again so would be no surprise if winning this race for the second year in a row.

World Approval missed by a neck in last year's running of this race and enters the race in top form off a sharp win at this 9 furlong trip on grass. He's approaching the million-dollar mark in career earnings and as that last win came off a 5 1/2 month layoff, the same or better can be expected today.

Beach Patrol suffered a narrow defeat on this weekend last year after leading late when run down by a head on the wire in the American Turf Stakes. First or second in four of six races since then, all on grass, although his career record of four second-place finishes and to go along with three wins may suggest he's just as content finishing second as winning, I wouldn't hold that against him as his best race is good enough to be right there on the wire with the other main contenders in this very deep field.

Bet Ballagh Rocks to win and place at odds of 3 to 1 or more

Bet Bal a Bali to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more

Play an exacta of Conquest Panthera and Ballagh Rocks over ALL

Play an exacta of ALL over Conquest Panthera and Ballagh Rocks

Play an exacta of Bal a Bali over ALL

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Key Bets & Races for Friday, May 5

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Alysheba Stakes - Race #6 at Churchill Downs– Post Time 1:17 PM ET

Honorable Duty is a horse on an absolute tear, having won three stakes in a row including the grade 2 New Orleans handicap in April 1. He's 2-for-2 at this distance here at Churchill Downs and six for seven on dirt in his career. Better still, with Noble Bird, Flashy Jewel, El Huerfano and the freshened American Freedom all likely to show early speed, Honorable Duty will love the fast pace like he did last out when making up 13 lengths to get up and neck. Last but not least, he has earned 116 Equibase figures in two of his last three races, with which the exception of the New Orleans handicap runner-up are by far the best recent figures of any entrant in this field.

Breaking Lucky was the runner-up to Honorable Duty in the New Orleans handicap when losing by inches on the wire in a very game effort. Two races before that, he finished second in the grade 1 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs with a 110 figure. Getting the services of top jockey Castellano for the first time, Breaking Lucky has a decent shot to turn the tables on it Honorable Duty from the last meeting and to win this race, he too benefiting from all the early speed.

Bet Honorable Duty to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more. 

Bet Breaking Lucky to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more. 

Play an exacta consisting of Honorable Duty and  Breaking Lucky over Honorable Duty, Breaking Lucky, Bird Song, El Huerfano, December Seven, Flashy Jewel and American Freedom


Kentucky Oaks - Race #11 at Churchill Downs – Post Time 6:12 PM ET

Up to a little over a month ago, there was a likely standout in this year's Kentucky Oaks- Unique Bella. A slight injury has forced her to the sidelines and from the point that was announced most handicappers were vexed with who would be top contenders were for this year's Oaks. That all changed following the running of the Santa Anita Oaks on April 8, when Paradise Woods crushed a decent field by nearly 12 lengths with speed to spare. She should run even better in the Kentucky Oaks as jockey Prat was just a passenger on her in the Santa Anita Oaks, sitting chilly and trying not to move a muscle as she changed gears tremendously on the turn to go from one length in front to 10 lengths in front in the blink of an eye. With a tremendous 111 last race Equibase speed figure to improve upon, better than ANY Kentucky Derby entrant, Paradise Woods should take some beating in this year's Oaks.

If not for Paradise Woods, Miss Sky Warrior might be the favorite in this year's Oaks. The filly has won five straight since October including the Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes last month in New York by 13 lengths. Just like Paradise Woods, Miss Sky Warrior was geared down in the last eighth of a mile in her last race. She improved to a 103 figure effort with that victory and although that equates to being about five lengths slower than Paradise Woods if they both repeat their most recent efforts, Miss Sky Warrior is not without a shot to leap frog over Paradise Woods in terms of speed figure to beat that one in the Oaks.

A few othersdeserve mention, particularly for exactas and trifectas, starting with Fantasy Stakes winner Ever So Clever. She drew the disadvantageous 12 post in the Fantasy yet still won and gets the ground saving rail to help her chances today. Vexatious missed second by a neck in the Fantasy and had some trouble in the stretch when the eventual runner-up didn't run straight and so her jockey had to alter her path twice in the last eighth of a mile. Opening at 20 to 1 odds, she must be considered for exacta and trifecta wagers we make involving this race. Farrell has won four races in a row including the Fair Grounds Oaks last month, also with a career-best 99 figure. In the Oaks, she didn't really have to be asked when going from 3rd to 1st on the turn before coasting to victory so she may have even better to show us in the Kentucky Oaks. Daddy's Lil Darling and Sailor's Valentine finished second and first, respectively, in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes last month at Keeneland, both running the best races of their careers but with 92 and 93 figures that need significant improvement to threaten the main contender group here. However, the Ashland has been a significant Kentucky Oaks prep in the past and these two fillies cannot be entirely ruled out.

Bet Paradise Woods to win at 3 to 2 odds or higher.

Play an exacta key of Paradise Woods and Miss Sky Warrior over ALL 

Play a trifecta key of Paradise Woods over Ever So Clever, Vexatious, Farrell, Sailor's Valentine, Miss Sky Warrior, Daddys Lil Darling, Abel Tasman and Salty in second and third.


Join Ellis Starr on 123bet and receive $10 FREE when you sign up with Promo Code BetWithEllis.

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Key Bets and Races for Saturday, April 29

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Elusive Quality Stakes - Race #8 at Belmont Park – Post Time 5:13 PM ET

Never Gone South is trying turf for the first time but with good grass breeding and with seven first or second place finishes in 12 races I have no concerns. He earned a career best 108 Equibase Speed Figure last month when beaten a head in a sprint at Aqueduct and ships up to NY again from trainer Lynch's barn at Laurel, once again getting Angel Arroyo (up for last month's 2nd place effort) to ride. Flattered when the third finisher from that March 18 race came back to win, improving his Equibase Figure by 10 points, Never Gone South could run a lot better than his 15/1 starting odds suggest. 

Hammers Vision, like Never Gone South, is a lightly raced four-year-old with a good record (3-4-1 in 14 starts). He has three first or second place finishes in eight races on grass including a stakes placing last summer at Saratoga. With a win and a runner-up finish in his two starts this year, with Rosario riding and with the horse having finished second in his only try at this distance on grass at Belmont, we should expect a top effort. Disco Partner and Calgary Cat open as the two favorites and although both can run well neither is a standout. They are poor bets to win at low odds but should be used on exacta tickets played. My strategy will be to split them in the exacta and hope they don't run first and second.

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 22

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Robert Hilton Memorial Stakes - Race #9 at Charles Town – Post Time 4:28 PM ET

Poseidon's Prize is 2 for 3 at Charles Town at this seven furlong trip, which at this track is a two-turn race. He powered off to win by seven lengths last out, just 2 weeks ago, after pressing the pace in second and from the ground saving rail may lead from the start or take the same catbird seat position so either way has a big shot here. Liar's Dice is the other main win contender. He too won his most recent race rather easily, at Laurel by five lengths, and he gets one of the top local jockeys in Montano which could offer an edge as he's very familiar with what it takes to win here.

Bet to Poseidon's Prize and Liar's Dice towin at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Pick 3 – Races 9 through 11

Race 9 – Poseidon's Prize, Liar's Dice

Race 10 – ALL 6

Race 11 – Sunny Ridge, Stanford, Imperative

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 15

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Bel Ali Stakes - Race #7 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:24 PM ET

Scuba is already a winner at this grade 3 stakes level and won at the higher grade 2 level when last seen in November. He can win on the lead or from off the pace and he finished 2nd, beaten nose, in his only previous start at Keeneland, as well as in his next two starts at this 9 furlong trip, so he seems well positioned to run a winning race. Bird Song earned his first graded stakes win last month, his third "A" effort in a row and he too has the tactical speed to be in contention from start to finish. He finished 2nd in his only previous race at Keeneland and his morning workout coming into the race, the best of 50 on the day, tells us he is ready to run his best once more. Taketothestreets has yet to run in a stakes but is ready for this level as he has worked his way through allowance conditions and has won three of his last four races. Opening at very high 20/1 odds that are out of line with my assessment of his probability to win, wagering a few bucks on him to win or to win, place and show as well as using him on exacta and multi-race tickets played may prove profitable if he continues to progress.

Bet to Scuba win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Scuba, Bird Song and Taketothesteets

Play a double using Scuba, Bird Song and Taketothestreets in race 7 and using Triple Chelsea, Perfect Perfection, Exaggerated and Nobody's Fault in race 8.


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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 8

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Race #3 at Keeneland – Post Time 2:12 PM ET

With Maniacal and Control Stake bent on having the lead from the start and at any cost, Homespun Hero gets slight preference among three to take advantage of such a scenario, just as he did last October at Keeneland when winning. Jose Ortiz was aboard that day as today, and the colt is in top form having won his most recent race as well. Owner Ken Ramsey strives to put up as many winners as he can at every Keeneland meeting and so his trainers are instructed to put horses where they belong to add to his numbers. Schivarelli has been facing much tougher when sixth recently in a pair of stakes and the drop to this allowance condition he's already won at may be the key to rebounding to winning form. He's won at Keeneland as well. Esposito returns from nine months off and won his first start of 2016 off a seven month layoff. His only bad race came around two turns and he's been working very well for his return.

Bet Homespun Hero to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Homespun Hero, Schivarelli and Esposito 

Play an exacta of Homespun Hero, Schivarelli and Esposito over all

Play a double using Homespun Hero, Schivarelli and Esposito in race 3 and using Giuseppe the Great, Path Less Traveled, Marshall Plan, Souper Fly Over and Switzerland in race 4.

Play another double using Homespun Hero, Schivarelli and Esposito in race 3 and using Giuseppe the Great and Switzerland in race 4.


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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 1

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Cutler Bay Handicap - Race #12 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:32 PM ET

Inherit the Wind showed a lot of maturity, and talent, winning in his career debut last month, around two turns on turf. Stalking the pace in second early, he drove past the leader in the stretch to earn a 92 Equibase figure tied with two others (Sir Sebastian and Dover Cliffs) for the best last figure in the field. Likely to improve both physically and mentally in his second career start, he gets slight preference among four horses we can potentially make a profit with in this race and in the pick 3 ending in the Florida Derby. Dover Cliffs is another with a turf route win on the course and a 92 figure effort to improve upon. He missed by a neck in his only other start and appears to have a bright future. Erasmo's Dream won a similar non-graded stakes on the course in February then finished fast for second last time out behind Sir Sebastian so in his current form deserves a lot of respect. Sir Sebastian had traffic trouble when third in the stakes won by Erasmo's Dream then returned to winning form under Paco Lopez, who rides back, so he must be considered strongly as a contender.

Bet any of the four contenders to win that are near 3 to 1 or higher. 

Play an exacta and trifecta box consisting of Inherit the Wind, Sir Sebastian, Dover Cliffs and Erasmo's Dream

Pick3:

Race 12 - Inherit the Wind, Sir Sebastian, Dover Cliffs and Erasmo's Dream

Race 13 – Sadler's Joy, Taghleeb, Patterson Cross, Reporting Star, Mr. Maybe

Race 14 – State of Honor, Impressive Edge, Battalion Runner, Gunnevera

Cost at $0.50 is $40


Pan American Stakes- Race #13 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 6:06 PM ET

Reporting Star nearly pulled off the 29 to 1 upset in the similar Mac Diarmida Stakes last month when leading late and beaten inches on the wire. Castellano takes over and the horse may still be ignored in the betting in spite of being in top form and a graded stakes winner last year on this day over the course. Patterson Cross finished second in that race so must be strongly considered as a contender here, as must McKnight Stakes winner and runner-up Taghleeb and Sadler's Joy, respectively. Mr. Maybe finished fastest of all but was too late in the Mac Diarmida when rallying from 11th with an eighth of a mile to go and beaten just a length at the end so is another with a chance here.

Bet Reporting Star and Patterson Cross to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. 

Play an exacta box consisting of Reporting Star, Patterson Cross, Taghleeb, Sadler's Joy and Mr. Maybe


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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, March 25

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U.A.E. Derby- Race #4 at Meydan (Dubai) – Post Time 9:25 AM ET

The most probable winner is Thunder Snow based on his two dominant five length wins in his two most recent races including one over the track at Meydan. However, his starting odds of 8 to 5 make it difficult to bet him to win although he is a must to use on any exacta or trifecta tickets played. One of the better bets to win appears to be Lancaster Bomber, who finished second in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes last October then less than one month later finished fast for second of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Given time off to mature by one of the top trainers in the world in Aiden O'Brien this son of War Front can make the transition to dirt just fine as progeny of the sire have been first or second in 12 of 52 graded stakes dirt routes in the past five years. 

Others to consider are Epicharis, unbeaten in four races in Japan, all on dirt including the Hyacinth Stakes last month. That being said, his starting odds of 5 to 1 may not offer the value of Hyacinth runner-up Adirato, who opens at 50 to 1 although beaten under a length by Epicharis. Speaking of 50 to 1 shots, I am very intrigued by He Runs Away, one of two South American four year olds (the other Vettori Kin) eligible to run in this race. He won the Group 1 Nacional Stakes in November powerfully in a field of 13 on dirt with his only race since on turf and the 107 Equibase figure stacks up nicely with the 110 figure favorite Thunder Snow earned in his only start to date on dirt and the 108 career best figure Epicharis has earned. 

Bet He Runs Away and Adirato to win and place at odds of 8 to 1 or more. Consider a show bet if 20 to 1 or higher.

Bet Lancaster Bomber at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta of Thunder Snow over Lancaster Bomber, Epicharis, Adirato and He Runs Away. I would play this multiple times in lieu of a win bet on Thunder Snow

Play a small ($1) exacta box combining Thunder Snow, Lancaster Bomber, Epicharis, Adirato and He Runs Away.

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, March 18

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Be sure to give Ellis' latest podcast a listen as an additional add-in to his weekly key bets!

Private Terms Stakes - Race #9 at Laurel – Post Time 5:10 PM ET

Hashtag Alex and O Dionysus stand out in this stakes race for three year olds, with Hashtag Alex the far better horse to bet to win opening at 4 to 1 compared to 9 to 5 for O Dionysus. Hashtag Alex has only run three times, the first around two turns without a sprint prep (no easy task), and he improved markedly second time out when a nose shy of victory before an easy five length win last time out. The 91 Equibase figure Hashtag Alex earned in that last win is better than the 90 O Dionysus earned winning the Miracle Wood Stakes so this colt deserves top billing. O Dionysus has no knocks except low odds as that 90 figure last out was a career best. Unlike Hashtag Alex, O Dionysus is running two-turns for the first time but with his tactical speed should be well placed throughout. 

Bet Hashtag Alex to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box between Hashtag Alex and O Dionysus

Play a double using Hashtag Alex and O Dionysus in race 9 and using all eight horses in race 10 as I don’t feel heavy favorite Jenda's Agenda is a standout.

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, March 11

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Tampa Bay Derby - Race #11 at Tampa Bay Downs–Post Time 5:27 PM ET

Beasley has never been worse than second in three starts and has improved his Equibase figures with each start, going from 97 to 102 to 106 last month when racing at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby for the first time. He was scratched out of the Fountain of Youth Stakes last week to run here and that makes sense as his last race 106 figure is the best last race figure in the race, even better than the 101 figure Tapwrit earned when second in the Sam F. Davis Stakeslast month as well. With a best of 58 workout last Saturday in lieu of running in the Fountain of Youth, it appears Beasley is set for a winning effort in the Tampa Bay Derby. Tapwrit returned from two months off in the Sam F. Davis, rallying for second behind unbeaten McCraken and earning a career best 101 figure. That was his first two-turn race and so improvement should be expected in his second two-turn race. As such, Tapwrit would be no surprise being in the thick of the action on the wire in this race. Tale of Silence appeared to have run poorly in his two route races last year, but the first of the two was deceptively good as he rallied from 7th on the turn to get within a head of the leader with an eighth of a mile to go before fading a bit to be beaten a length on the wire. He ran poorly in the Remsen after that then ran poorly again when shortened up to seven furlongs in his three-year-old debut in January. However, Tale of Silenceimproved nicely in his most recent start when trailing early in sixth and rallying to second into a runaway seven length winner. Being a full brother to 2008 Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati, Tale of Silence should have no problem going long and now that his form is on the upswing with a career best 97 figure last out, he could post the upset. 

Bet Beasley to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Bet Tale of Silence to win and to place for a smaller amount at 5 to 1 or higher.

Play an exacta consisting of Beasley, Tale of Silence and Tapwrit over Tale of Silence, Basha, Tapwrit,<  Beasley, Sonic Mule, State of Honor and Wild Shot

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Meydan Overview - March 4, 2017

News that had become more likely with the passing of time broke this week when it was announced that Arrogate would in fact make the trip to Meydan for the Dubai World Cup. A good thing, right? Well, yes in that it is important that the second richest race in the world attracts the best horses - and there is no doubt Arrogate is that on dirt at the moment - but as a spectacle, is the race now going to be hideously one-sided? Probably. That even factors in Mike de Kock's Mubtaahij losing little in defeat when prepping last week. He finished second to Etijaah, giving that one 15lbs. De Kock was doing cartwheels out of Meydan afterwards, but not before he had another little dig at the dirt surface. “I didn’t want him to run again before the Dubai World Cup as I don’t want him to visit that track more than he has to,” the trainer remarked. Work that one out for yourself.

Super Saturday is unlikely to unearth a credible challenger to Arrogate, with the third round of the Al Maktoum Challenge, which is a Group One, being the official prep. Furia Cruzada and Second Summer are renewing rivalry from the second round, the latter fully expected to reverse form given he should have won last time. Special Fighter is back to defend his crown, although he has not been seen since finishing fourth to California Chrome last March. He also hails from a stable in turmoil in recent weeks, after Musabah Al Mheiri was banned for 12 months for cobalt use. Special Fighter would be a fairytale winner of sorts for Maria Ritchie, who has taken over the reins at the yard, but his absence is an obvious concern. Then there is Lani, who won a bad UAE Derby last year and has since looked fried after an American campaign. Godolphin have rolled the dirt dice one last time, Move Up arriving on the up but completely unproven on the surface. Second Summer is the deserving favourite and gets the vote from these quarters.

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, March 4

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Herecomesthebride Stakes-  Race #4 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 1:30 PM ET

The race is very playable because the likely favorite, Coasted, is VULNERABLE. Similar to Eagle last week at Fair Grounds (where we cashed in on $12 winner Honorable Duty), Coasted returns from four months off going two turns against horses with good recent two turn form. She needed a sprint prep last year in her debut before winning around two turns and her trainer is winless in the past two years with horses coming back from this kind of layoff. 

We therefore hone in on two strong contenders, Dream Dancing (morning line 9 to 2) and India Mantuana (morning line 7 to 2). Dream Dancing ran a career best race (92 Equibase figure) in her most recent start on 1/28 at the distance on the course and with Leparoux up for the first time on the filly on turf, riding back here. Dream Dancing made a big move from seventh on the turn to be in front by a head at the eighth pole then widened nicely and making her second start off the layoff should run even better. India Mantuana is the one Dream Dancing has to run down to win. She was privately purchased since her last start on 1/21, a wire-to-wire win over the course, now finding herself in the top Chad Brown barn with Jose Ortiz riding for the first time. With wins in three of her last four turf races and a field high 96 last race figure to repeat or improve upon, she could be tough to catch, and beat. 

Bet Dream Dancing and India Mantuana to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Dream Dancing and India Mantuana

Play a daily double consisting of Dream Dancing and India Mantuana in race 4 and Realm, Bird Song, Tale of S'avall and Greenpointcrusader

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, February 25

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Gulfstream Park- Race #10 – Post Time 4:34 PM ET

Zennor has run the best two races of his career in his last two starts (102 then 109 Equibase figures), the most recent a strong win on the Gulfstream Park turf at a longer distance at the one lower NW1x allowance level. He has tactical speed and should be second through fourth in the early stages to win his second race in a row for the hot McLaughlin barn, clicking at 30% wins on the meeting. Dujac and Ice Cutter finished third and second, respectively, under at the level in their most recent races. The winner came back to win again, which bodes well for horses coming out of the race to run well, and with a combined 8 for 18 record of being first or second on the turf they are horses we must use in exacta tickets we play at the least. Highland Sky ran the best race of his career last time out with a 107 figure close to Zennor's 109. He comes back from seven months off but won on turf going long in his career debut (no easy task) so should be rolling from far back into the thick of the action in the stretch today.

Bet Zennor to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Zennor, Dujac, Ice Cutter and Highland Sky.

Pick 3: 

Race 10 – Zennor, Dujac, Ice Cutter and Highland Sky

Race 11 – Morticia, Fields of Song, Attyia and Somebody to Love

Race 12 – Unified, Early Entry, Mind Your Biscuits

Cost at $0.50 minimum bet is $24


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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, February 18

 

 

Miracle Wood Stakes - Race #7 at Laurel Park – Post Time 3:30 PM ET

 

Pick 3 and Pick 4 opportunities start in this race, with a potential low odds overlay among four win contenders. Everybodyluvsrudy is one of two shippers from New York for the powerful Rudy Rodriguez barn. He failed in his two-turn debut in the tougher Jerome Stakes last month, in the mud, and his only bad one-turn effort came in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes last September when still a maiden. His best effort came at this one-turn mile trip one before last and with Irad Ortiz Jr. signed on to ride we should expect a big effort, opening at 4 to 1. High Roller beat favorite O Dionysus by a half-length in the similar Frank Whitley Stakes last month at 7 furlongs. Both try a mile for the first time and their last race 93 Equibase Figures stack up well with the 91 Everybodyluvsrudy earned in his representative effort. Butch Walker adds blinkers off a third place effort in the Whitely and is bred to improve as the distances increase so can't be counted out at 8/1 starting odds. 

 

Bet Everybodyluvsrudy to win at odds of 2/1 or more

 

As the poor value in exactas are any combinations consisting of both O Dionysus and High Roller, we will try to split them with the following combinations to maximize profit:

Play exactas consisting of Everybodyluvsrudy over O Dionysus, High Roller and Butch Walker and then play the opposite, which is O Dionysus, High Roller and Butch Walker over Everybodyluvsrudy.

 

Play exactas consisting of Butch Walker over O Dionysus, High Roller and Everybodyluvsrudy and then play the opposite, which is O Dionysus, High Roller and Everybodyluvsrudy over Butch Walker

 

Note that in the Pick 3 and 4 tickets below, Page McKenney is entered in both the eighth and tenth races so depending on which race he runs in the cost of the tickets could be MUCH lower.

 

Pick 3: (adding Eastern Bay in leg 1)

Race 7 – Eastern Bay, O Dionysus, Butch Walker, Everybodyluvsrudy and High Roller

Race 8 – Souper Lucky, Page McKenney

Race 9 – High Ridge Road, By the Moon, Wonder Gal

Cost at $0.50 minimum bet is either $30 or $15 (if Page McKenney doesn't run in race 8)

 

Pick 4:

Race 7 – O Dionysus, Butch Walker, Everybodyluvsrudy and High Roller

Race 8 – Souper Lucky, Page McKenney

Race 9 – High Ridge Road, By the Moon, Wonder Gal

Race 10 – Afleet Willy, Page McKenney, Imperial Hint, Stallwalkin' Dude, Voluntario, Heaven's Runway 

Cost at $0.50 minimum bet ranges from $36 to $72 (depending on which race Page McKenney runs in) 

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, February 11

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Note: Please note post times races because the Tampa and Gulfstream races are grouped together

 

Suncoast Stakes - Race #8 at Tampa Bay Towns – Post Time 3:45 PM ET

 

Considering this year's Suncoast Stakes figures to be won by one of the two favorites, R Angel Katelyn or Elate, we can start a relatively inexpensive pick 3. I will be passing on a couple of lower odds horses in the next two legs to the risk may well be worth the reward. R Angel Katelyn has won four of five career starts, the most recent a similar non-graded stakes over the track around one turn. With the ability to be tactically placed first or second in the early stages on the stretch out and with the best last race Equibase Figure in the field to improve on, she could win again. Elate dominated in her debut in New York at the end of November, powering home to win by 12 lengths. She's bred to love the two turn tip she's trying for the first time and her three year old debut should be even better than the effort she put in that debut.

 

Pick 3:

Race 8 – R Angel Katelyn, Elate

Race 9 – Turbo Street, Coco Mon, Conquest Panthera

Race 10 – State of Honor, Fact Finding, Tapwrit, No Dozing

 

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, February 4

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Swale Stakes - Race #5 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 2:00 PM ET

There is a standout and a KEY bet in this race and it's is neither 7 to 5 morning line favorite Three Rules nor 8 to 5 morning line second choice Favorable Outcome. Three Rules favoritism is based on his four straight wins from July through October. Three of those were restricted races and following a sixth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and a three month layoff I need to see how good he is as a three year old, particularly coming back at the tough distance of seven furlongs. Similarly, Favorable Outcome is going to be bet off his first two races last August and October, a six length maiden win and third place finish in the Champagne Stakes. He finished 12th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf to finish his two year old campaign but even his best effort isn't a winning one here if Sonic Mule fires. 

Sonic Mule is the KEY BET in this year's Swale, opening at seven to two even though he gets John Velazquez for Pletcher and has won his last three races, the last two at Gulfstream. I love the cut back from a mile to seven furlongs off a nice off the pace win and his last two Equibase Figures (104 then 97) top the field already but he's likely to run a new career best effort here. 

Bet Sonic Mile to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more. 


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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, January 28

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California Cup Oaks - Race #5 at Santa Anita – Post Time 4:50 PM ET, 1:50 PT

The California Cup Oaks and the two races that follow offer some excellent betting action, both within the races and in the pick 3.

The favorite is Sircat Sally (9 to 5 morning line odds), who has earned both her wins leading from start to finish, the most recent at this mile trip but on dirt. Not only does the handicapping adage "Don't bet a horse at low odds trying something for the first time" apply here, but there are at least two horses stretching out from sprints who can easily deny the favorite the early lead she wants, particularly from the nine post. All that early heat sets up a trio of stalkers and closers nicely, starting with Bella Luma, who already has positive experience on turf, having rallied for second in the second start of her career, first on turf, at this mile trip. She won her next start, on an all-weather surface, by nine lengths, before an irrelevant try in the Jimmy Durante Stakes when debris appeared on the course, causing her and many of the others to check and lose all chance. Her most recent race, on dirt, is the one in which Sircat Sally coasted around the track in front and irrelevant, so she can easily bounce back to form good enough to win. 

Mi Pi Romancer ran very well when she tried turf for the first time in November, rallying for second in a field of 10. Next out, she led from start to finish but Prat knows from an outside post he must take her back and save ground today, so she is another that should be running on strongly late as the pacesetters and pressers tire. How About Zero tried turf just once, in the Jimmy Durante, and was also affected by the debris on the track. She finished far behind Sircat Sally last month but she did win a similar stakes for California breds before that from off the pace, showing she has the ability to take back early and come rolling late. 

Bet Bella Luma to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Add a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher. 

Consider a smaller win and place bet on How About Zero at odds of 9 to 2 or higher. 

Play an exacta of Bella Luma, How About Zero and Mi Pi Romancer over ALL.

Pick 3 for Santa Anita Races 5 through 7

Pick 3

Race 5: Bella Luma, How About Zero and Mi Pi Romancer

Race 6: Solid Wager, Well Measured and Jimmy Bouncer

Race 7: He Will, Ashleyluvssugar and Ralis

Cost at $1 is $27


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Bobby's Picks - Mahoning Valley

Bobby Fornaro

Race 1

Mizz Freebie - 2:1

Directioner - 6:1

Easter Light - 4:1

Race 2

Tiz Erins Night - 10:1

Ideal Quality - 5:2

Star Gazer - 5:1

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HorseWhisperer - Woodbine - January 23, 2017

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Not a good forecast for this evenings Woodbine card rain wind and snow. Here at www.horsewhispererusa.com we have compiled some solid plays for the 10 race card.

Pick 4/5 are seeded to the tune of 50k/40k

Plus the Super Hi 5 Jackpot has a 70k CARRYOVER.

Which can be played for 20 cents.

Drivers to watch who are in form: Mcnair, Cullen, Ballargeon.

Trainers: Moreau, Auciello, Allard.

123Racing Pick 6 Starts in Race 5!

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Key Bets & Races for Saturday, January 21

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Gulfstream Park – Race #9 – Post Time 4:03 PM

There is excellent value in the Pick 3 from races 9 through 11 as well as the Pick 4 ending in the Sunshine Million's Classic. There may also be some value in this race, a 7 1/2 furlong turf race for first level allowance types. The contenders here are Gentle Kitten, India Mantuana and What's in a Kiss and although they are the three favorites on the morning line it would be difficult to make a case that any of the other six can win. Gentle Kitten fits the condition perfectly off a maiden win last month over the course at the distance. Jose Ortiz was up for the win and rides again and the filly earned the best last race Equibase figure (94) in the field so with improving to do may move right through this first allowance level. India Mantuana finished second to a future stakes star in Bellavais when second in the Ginger Brew stakes on the course at the distance last month. She won two in a row on turf before that so fits on all counts. What's In a Kiss makes her U.S. debut after importing from France and moving into the sizzling hot Brown barn. Castellano gets on and she's been running well against tougher so would be no surprise BUT it must be noted her 2/1 starting odds are low given Browns 2 for 11 record with horses making their U.S. debuts in the past couple of years.

Bet Gentle Kitten to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Of the tickets below, the preferred play is the first pick 3, singling (using only one horse) in race 10, along with the pick 4, which uses three horses in race 10. These two plays combine try to maximize profit. However, there is nothing wrong with the second pick 3 option along with the pick 4 if those amounts are within your budget.

Pick 3

Race 9: Gentle Kitten, India Mantuana, What's In A Kiss

Race 10: My Girl Corey

Race 11: Our Way, Class and Cash, Reporting Star, Go Around, Two Step Time

Cost at $1 is $15

Pick 3 (option 2)

Race 9: Gentle Kitten, India Mantuana, What's In A Kiss 

Race 10: My Girl Corey, True Pleasure, Tybalt's Queen

Race 11: Our Way, Class and Cash, Reporting Star, Go Around, Two Step Time

Cost at $1 is $45

Pick 4:

Race 9: Gentle Kitten, India Mantuana, What's In A Kiss 

Race 10: My Girl Corey, True Pleasure, Tybalt's Queen

Race 11: Our Way, Class and Cash, Reporting Star, Go Around, Two Step Time

Race 12: Tiger of Wales, Piloting, Awesome Slew

Cost at $0.50 is $67.50

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